Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

https://twitter.com/kate_ptrv/status/1332398754331303939

"There are angry ladies all over Yankee Candle’s site reporting that none of the candles they just got had any smell at all. I wonder if they’re feeling a little hot and nothing has much taste for the last couple days too."

So the twitter link I posted goes to a person that did a deep data dive and did data visualization for that possibility. A ton more detail if you follow the link but the TLDR is probably this image:

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/kate_ptrv/status/1332398754331303939

"There are angry ladies all over Yankee Candle’s site reporting that none of the candles they just got had any smell at all. I wonder if they’re feeling a little hot and nothing has much taste for the last couple days too."

So the twitter link I posted goes to a person that did a deep data dive and did data visualization for that possibility. A ton more detail if you follow the link but the TLDR is probably this image:

Interesting data set.

When I lost my sense of smell in February I thought it very strange. My sense of smell is normally like a bloodhound. It came back after a few days.

 

[SMAlset]

The Yankee Candle comments are interesting to note as well. Too bad we can't know if reason they think the candles don't have a fragrance is because they had covid and lost that sense.

 

[madodel]

Anyone watching CNBC this morning? Jim Cramer is so incredibly positive about how the vaccine rollouts are going to br successful and save the economy in the next 6 months. He's been so negative about everything for several months now. Even the other talking head commented on his turnaround. So is Cramer full of it as usual or with current knowledge should we all be expecting a successful distribution of the vaccines and their actually working? Is Post pandemic going to be thing in 6 months?

 

[JRP3]

I'd think it should be, or at least heading in that direction. Not that I have any special insight.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Moderna says its COVID-19 vaccine is 100 percent effective at preventing severe cases

"In Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine trial, all but 11 of the 196 participants who contracted the virus were in the placebo group, good for a 94 percent efficacy rate. But perhaps even more crucially, none of the people who received the vaccine developed a severe infection, the company said. There were 30 severe cases in the trial — including one death — but they all occurred in the placebo group."
------------------------------
More better.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Pfizer is the only vaccine submitted to the FDA at this time. I predict one submission per month.

Moderna expects FDA EUA approval around the 19th of December, with shots in arms before the end of the year. Sounds like about 10 days behind Pfizer?

 

[madodel]

Analysis of vitamin D level among asymptomatic and critically ill COVID-19 patients and its correlation with inflammatory markers | Scientific Reports

Conclusion
Vitamin D deficiency markedly increases the chance of having severe disease after infection with SARS Cov-2. The intensity of inflammatory response is also higher in vitamin D deficient COVID-19 patients. This all translates to increase morbidity and mortality in COVID-19 patients who are deficient in vitamin D. Keeping the current COVID-19 pandemic in view authors recommend administration of vitamin D supplements to population at risk for COVID-19.

 

[madodel]

United Begins Flying Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine

United Airlines Holdings Inc. on Friday began operating charter flights to position doses of Pfizer Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine for quick distribution if the shots are approved by regulators, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Teachers first, that's all I ask. Then maybe strip club employees and patrons. There's a lot of chatter that getting the irresponsible super-spreaders should be prioritized. Maybe drive around Trump rallies with a dart gun?

 

[scottf200]

United Begins Flying Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine

United Airlines Holdings Inc. on Friday began operating charter flights to position doses of Pfizer Inc.’s Covid-19 vaccine for quick distribution if the shots are approved by regulators, according to people familiar with the matter.

Confusing to me since shipping is mentioned from WI and MI.

Title: COVID-19 VACCINE U.S. DISTRIBUTION FACT SHEET
COVID-19 Vaccine U.S. Distribution Fact Sheet | Pfizer

 

[NikolaACDC]

Dr. Scott Atlas resigns from Trump administration - CNNPolitics

"Dr. Scott Atlas, a highly controversial member of the White House's coronavirus task force, has resigned from his post in the Trump administration, according to a person who works with the task force.
A source familiar with what happened told CNN that Atlas turned in his resignation letter to President Donald Trump on Monday. As a special government employee, Atlas had a 130-day window in which he could serve and that window was technically going to close this week."
-------------------
Now there will be a lot less truth









wherever he's going to.

 

[EVCollies]

Moderna expects FDA EUA approval around the 19th of December, with shots in arms before the end of the year. Sounds like about 10 days behind Pfizer?

Agree, sounds like great news. Also saw J&J claims up to 300 million doses available for the US in 2021. I so hope this will end soon!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Any guesses on the number tomorrow? I'm putting the over/under at 2400 deaths.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So why the delay till the 10 th of December. Are they awaiting more data or is it a scheduling thing.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So why the delay till the 10 th of December. Are they awaiting more data or is it a scheduling thing.

Yeah this is kind of mysterious to me too. Seems like they could have pipelined this dataset to allow for a shorter review period. However, this data is supposed to be completely blinded so I can see the issues are complex. Still, three weeks is a long time in this context. When they are only (???) reviewing all the data. Safety data is being reviewed again for this dataset (and will be reviewed constantly going forward - the safety review is never completed for vaccines).

 

[NikolaACDC]

Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known, Study Says

"SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized," the authors said.
...
Researchers came to this conclusion after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from residents in nine states. They found evidence of corona virus antibodies in 106 out of 7,389 blood donations. The CDC analyzed the blood collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17.
...
Researchers found coronavirus antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13 to Dec. 16. They also discovered antibodies in 67 samples from Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin in early January — before widespread outbreaks in those states.
-------------------------------------
More indication that it 'was going around' earlier than previously thought.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Any guesses on the number tomorrow? I'm putting the over/under at 2400 deaths.

Deaths were under-reported over Thanksgiving, on top of the normal weekend under-reporting. We'd need almost 4000 today and another 4000 tomorrow to fully catch up. If it takes until Friday to catch up we'll see more like 3000/day. I don't see a good way to isolate the catch-up effect. We'll have to wait for next week to get clean numbers.

Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known, Study Says

"SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized," the authors said.
...
Researchers came to this conclusion after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from residents in nine states. They found evidence of corona virus antibodies in 106 out of 7,389 blood donations. The CDC analyzed the blood collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17.
...
Researchers found coronavirus antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13 to Dec. 16. They also discovered antibodies in 67 samples from Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin in early January — before widespread outbreaks in those states.
-------------------------------------
More indication that it 'was going around' earlier than previously thought.

My first thought was cross-reactivity. Trevor Bedford says it better.

He first points to specificity -- they has 0.6% positivity (3/519) on their true negative samples. They showed 2.0% positivity from mid-December west coast (CA/OR/WA) samples and 1.2% from early January east coast (MA/CT/RI) and midwest (WI/MI/IA) samples. He theorizes the increase above 0.6% is from recent non-COVID coronavirus infection antibodies providing temporary cross-reactivity.

EDIT: It seems to me this study shoots down the denier claim that herd immunity only requires ~20% COVID prevalence thanks to massive pre-existing cross-reactivity in the general population. Scott Atlas promoted this "scientific" claim, IIRC.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

More indication that it 'was going around' earlier than previously thought.

It just makes little sense that it was going around earlier than thought, based on what we know about how it behaves. It was likely present in the US in very low numbers in January. But not with 2% prevalence or even 0.2%.

I guess I have my priors here, but I can't square a significant prevalence prior to February with the behavior of the pandemic subsequently. It just does not seem probable. And...based on Trevor's response...it is not really consistent with the data we do have, either.

My first thought was cross-reactivity. Trevor Bedford says it better.

Yeah, he's discussed this before, and I particularly like this follow-up below that he added today. They can track this sort of thing with the Seattle Flu Study! And they use PCR.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1333841828118814720?s=20

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It seems to me this study shoots down the denier claim that herd immunity only requires ~20% COVID prevalence thanks to massive pre-existing cross-reactivity in the general population.

This has also been shot down by Prof. Shane Crotty, who studies immunology. In serious academic circles, after initial study, the cross-reactivity was thought to most likely just result in a lower IFR than COVID would otherwise have had, had the cross-reactivity not existed in the population. There was never any evidence that cross-reactivity prevented infection or lowered the HIT - and in fact there were plenty of counterexamples (massive cities (Manaus), prisons, boats, small towns, etc.) showing that cross-reactivity likely did not prevent infection. So not sure why any rational person would cling to the idea that it does. But clearly Dr. Atlas clung to that!