If it may be helpful: my experience in driving a Leaf for a little over 7 months is that range in an EV is primarily dependent upon speed and climate control. Windows up/down, lights on/off, stereo on/off all make a difference but they are generally inconsequential compared to the speed and climate control. This is confirmed for Model S in the range simulator I spent some time with a couple weeks ago at Santana Row. The more and the steeper hills you drive also figure significantly into the equation. You will not recapture going down the extra you use going up. But hills are not represented in the simulator.
The rule of thumb to extend your range is to drive more slowly and use climate control as minimally as possible. I have no doubt we can achieve 160 miles per charge in Model S with 40 kwh battery pack by capping our speed and climate control. It is a trade off. We can maximize our speed and comfort or we can maximize our range. After I got used to my various commutes in the Leaf I found a happy medium for each. I'm sure it will be the same for Model S.
Here are some numbers from the range simulator at Santana Row which demonstrate this point. (My apology if the columns don't line up when this is posted.) All are with windows up, day driving and show miles per charge in range mode on a 40 kwh battery pack:
Outside temp 90 70 50
City driving, CC off 182 185 183
City driving, CC on 126(!) 171 158
Hwy 55 mph, CC off 172 170 165
Hwy 55 mph, CC on 149 165 157
Hwy 60 mph, CC off 157 155 151
Hwy 60 mph, CC on 139 151 145
Hwy 65 mph, CC off 144 141 138
Hwy 65 mph, CC on 129 139 133
Multiply these figures by 80% for standard mode. But if we are about out of charge in Model S in standard mode we can override en route and go into range mode to pick up the bottom 10% so there is a nice cushion if needed in a pinch.
The big unknown in my mind is battery degradation over time. People are guessing 70% of maximum capacity after 8 years but that is going to depend on driving/charging patterns and possibly temperatures. With intelligent driving/charging for those 8 years I'm assuming we'll still get 112 miles per charge in range mode and 90 miles in standard mode (with an extra 11 mile buffer) with a 40 kwh battery pack if we can cap our speed and climate control. Time will tell.