For many years, there has been a widespread belief among many government energy and environmental agencies, university and national laboratory experts, as well as many within the auto and energy industries that the future of sustainable transport involves hydrogen FCVs. This belief predates the existence of Tesla. It's based on a view that the convenience of fast refueling is essential for widespread consumer acceptance, and that FCVs will be the only affordable vehicles that can achieve long range using sustainable energy and zero tailpipe emissions.
Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and others have made long-term big investments in FCVs, and relatively less in BEVs, because they believe FCVs are future of sustainable transport. They would be knowingly setting their companies up for serious harm if they
actually believed FCVs were doomed to fail and that BEVs are the future.
We may disagree with those who believe that hydrogen FCVs are the future of sustainable transport. A difference of opinion does not support a claimed conspiracy to undermine BEV adoption by promoting FCV technology that proponents allegedly know is doomed to fail. I've seen no evidence presented here that any serious supporter in government, academia, or industry supports FCVs in an attempt to undermine BEVs, while believing that FCVs are doomed to fail. The arguments against FCVs are much stronger without resorting to irrational conspiracy theories.
Since I work with high pressure hydrogen in my professional life, I personally can't get past the safety risks of having 10,000 psig of hydrogen in large tanks riding around in my car with me. It's like driving around with bombs on board.
I agree that the most likely fuel source for significant near and medium term adoption of FCVs -- hydrogen produced from natural gas SMR without CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) -- does not have sufficient environmental benefits to be worth the immense costs to build the fueling infrastructure. Well-to-wheels GHG emissions from FCVs using NG SMR w/o CCS are not significantly lower than a conventional gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle like a Prius or Accord hybrid. A hydrogen FCV fueling station costs 10 times more to build than a Tesla Supercharger station, and many more of them would be needed because an owner would not be able to fuel a FCV at home overnight, unlike a Tesla or any other BEV.
There are lower GHG pathways to hydrogen, such as natural gas SMR combined with CCS. But this will never be cost competitive with natural gas SMR without CCS, so if it's not mandated or strongly incentivized in some way it will not happen, ever.
Electrolysis from renewable energy is another potential pathway for low GHG hydrogen. But it's not cost competitive with NG SMR hydrogen, so it won't happen on a large scale in the foreseeable future unless mandated or strongly incentivized.
Another low GHG pathway to hydrogen involves biogas/biomass SMR, these are renewable sources. However, there is a limited amount of biogas/biomass and it's valuable for renewable electricity generation. Yesterday, California's electrical grid included
11,600 MWh from burning biomass and biogas, a small but important part of California's RPS power mix. If this biomass/biogas was diverted to making hydrogen for FCVs, it would increase GHG emissions of the electrical grid. I see no net win for the environment using biogas/biomass to make hydrogen for FCVs.
I don't believe that FCVs should be eligible for any ZEV credits or other environmental credits unless automakers and other industry supporters fund the construction and operation of a fueling network that uses sufficiently low GHG hydrogen sources. WTW GHG emissions should be mandated to decrease over time from this hydrogen fueling network, just as RPS mandates are forcing reductions in GHG emissions from the electrical grid over time. Tesla is funding the construction and operation of a fueling network for buyers of their cars. Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Air Products, Linde, Praxair, etc. can fund the construction and operation of a fueling network for buyers of FCVs, with no more government subsidies than Tesla gets for building Supercharger stations.
As we know, BEV well-to-wheels emissions depend a great deal on the power source. Cleaning up the grid makes BEVs cleaner. But much more importantly, cleaning up the grid reduces emissions for ALL electricity consumers, the rest of which will dwarf BEV energy consumption for many years to come. Cleaning up the grid must be done whether or not there are BEVs on the road.