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Competing technologies to BEV

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Not true, the different oil companies are not aligned on these issues. I realize it's popular to premise a sort of Big Oil Hive Mind or Big Oil Borg, but their track records don't support these simple assumptions. Show us where the CEO of ExxonMobil or Koch Industries stated anything like remotely like the following, let alone published an article:




One can certainly find quotes where the CEOs of some other oil companies stated essentially the opposite, as well as sharp disagreements among the different oil companies regarding efforts to stop climate change regulations.



The oil companies don't strongly support FCVs over BEVs. Some are against both technologies. Others have deferred to the many automotive and fuel cell experts within government research labs, environmental and regulatory agencies, academia, and the auto industry, who have been asserting for many years that hydrogen FCVs are the inevitable future.



I'm infinitely more qualified to comment on what I would do, and I know you're wrong on that point. I'm also pretty sure that the technical case against FCVs is undermined when one resorts to conspiracy theories.



I've read it. You appear to be mistaking discussion about a number of possible future scenarios with an agenda.
You are seriously going to believe what an oil company CEO says? Lol. Talk is cheap, actions speak louder than words....
 
Ok , off on a little tangent, but what if a hydrogen car hits road debris like the ones a few Tesla owners have hit?
Or what if some crazy owner decides to take a round about at a high speed in a hydrogen car around 2 AM and crashes?

Questions, questions.
 
Ok , off on a little tangent, but what if a hydrogen car hits road debris like the ones a few Tesla owners have hit?
Or what if some crazy owner decides to take a round about at a high speed in a hydrogen car around 2 AM and crashes?

I suspect that's what will finally kill off hydrogen cars--especially when the first collateral damage happens. The real problem will be when the fleet ages and the containers aren't so safe anymore.
 
Ok , off on a little tangent, but what if a hydrogen car hits road debris like the ones a few Tesla owners have hit?
Or what if some crazy owner decides to take a round about at a high speed in a hydrogen car around 2 AM and crashes?

Questions, questions.
That's why hydrogen will always be the future. Nobody is going to want to drive a bomb around after the first few explosions and deaths.

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I suspect that's what will finally kill off hydrogen cars--especially when the first collateral damage happens. The real problem will be when the fleet ages and the containers aren't so safe anymore.
You beat me to it by 2 minutes. Lol
 
Hydrogen Car Fire Surprise : EVWORLD.COM

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Electricity makes more sense to me for a number of reasons including:

* Infrastructure to distribute electricity all over is already in place.
(It costs a lot to truck hydrogen supplies to filling stations, probably burning fossil fuels to do so.)

* Better overall efficiency.
(How much electricity/fuel was used to isolate the hydrogen, compress it, ship it around, etc.)

* Electricity can be created from a variety of sources.

* Less complexity.
(Fully electric cars don't need a fuel cell, fuel tank, etc.)
 
You are seriously going to believe what an oil company CEO says? Lol. Talk is cheap, actions speak louder than words....

Shell publicly opposed Proposition 23 that would have repealed California's climate change law, a proposition that was supported and largely funded by a number of other oil companies. That position resulted in this recent announcement. Several of the oil companies that supported Prop 23 don't even have operations in California.
 
I'm also pretty sure that the technical case against FCVs is undermined when one resorts to conspiracy theories.

One of the possible reasons why people start raising the possibility of conspiracy theory (I am not a subscriber to it) is that it is so against the common sense and may I say foolish to promote fcvs and motivations behind such behaviour are so difficult to understand and accept. I can not accept ignorance as an explanation at these levels.
 
I suspect that's what will finally kill off hydrogen cars--especially when the first collateral damage happens. The real problem will be when the fleet ages and the containers aren't so safe anymore.

I don't, the regulations tend to be that non fixed, pressurised hydrogen storage needs to be hydrostaticly tested by an approved testing lab every 5 years. Ie these cyclinders will need to be removed and sent to a approved lab and validated every five years. Inconvenient yes, expensive yes, safe yes. Its the equivalent of having a recall legislated in, on a 5 yearly cycle.
 
From the article:

I hope you don't buy it because every time I sell one it costs me $14,000
...
the 500e starts at $32,650 before federal tax credits

So a base 500e costs Fiat about $46,500 to make. The absolute base Model S goes for $69,900 (before tax credits), and assuming 20% margins (much lower than Tesla's average) it costs Tesla somewhere around $55,900 to build a base Model S.


Fiat 500eTesla Model S
Production Cost$46,500$55,900
EPA Range87 miles208 miles
Seating45
Cargo Capacity7 cu. ft.26.3 cu. ft.
0-60 Time9.1s5.9 s
Consoleimageimage
NHSTA Safety Rating4-star*5-star**
* Non-electric version. The 500e has not been tested by NHSTA
** 5.3 stars


Tesla's competitive advantage is enormous right now.
 
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gg_ Tailpipe ruins the look of every car ! :smile: Seems to me Elon's plan to spur/encourage competition isn't going as planned, yet. The disruption Tesla is bringing will just have to dig deeper and cause more pain. They'll get it eventually.
 
For many years, there has been a widespread belief among many government energy and environmental agencies, university and national laboratory experts, as well as many within the auto and energy industries that the future of sustainable transport involves hydrogen FCVs. This belief predates the existence of Tesla. It's based on a view that the convenience of fast refueling is essential for widespread consumer acceptance, and that FCVs will be the only affordable vehicles that can achieve long range using sustainable energy and zero tailpipe emissions.

Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and others have made long-term big investments in FCVs, and relatively less in BEVs, because they believe FCVs are future of sustainable transport. They would be knowingly setting their companies up for serious harm if they actually believed FCVs were doomed to fail and that BEVs are the future.

We may disagree with those who believe that hydrogen FCVs are the future of sustainable transport. A difference of opinion does not support a claimed conspiracy to undermine BEV adoption by promoting FCV technology that proponents allegedly know is doomed to fail. I've seen no evidence presented here that any serious supporter in government, academia, or industry supports FCVs in an attempt to undermine BEVs, while believing that FCVs are doomed to fail. The arguments against FCVs are much stronger without resorting to irrational conspiracy theories.

Since I work with high pressure hydrogen in my professional life, I personally can't get past the safety risks of having 10,000 psig of hydrogen in large tanks riding around in my car with me. It's like driving around with bombs on board.

I agree that the most likely fuel source for significant near and medium term adoption of FCVs -- hydrogen produced from natural gas SMR without CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) -- does not have sufficient environmental benefits to be worth the immense costs to build the fueling infrastructure. Well-to-wheels GHG emissions from FCVs using NG SMR w/o CCS are not significantly lower than a conventional gasoline-electric hybrid vehicle like a Prius or Accord hybrid. A hydrogen FCV fueling station costs 10 times more to build than a Tesla Supercharger station, and many more of them would be needed because an owner would not be able to fuel a FCV at home overnight, unlike a Tesla or any other BEV.

There are lower GHG pathways to hydrogen, such as natural gas SMR combined with CCS. But this will never be cost competitive with natural gas SMR without CCS, so if it's not mandated or strongly incentivized in some way it will not happen, ever.

Electrolysis from renewable energy is another potential pathway for low GHG hydrogen. But it's not cost competitive with NG SMR hydrogen, so it won't happen on a large scale in the foreseeable future unless mandated or strongly incentivized.

Another low GHG pathway to hydrogen involves biogas/biomass SMR, these are renewable sources. However, there is a limited amount of biogas/biomass and it's valuable for renewable electricity generation. Yesterday, California's electrical grid included 11,600 MWh from burning biomass and biogas, a small but important part of California's RPS power mix. If this biomass/biogas was diverted to making hydrogen for FCVs, it would increase GHG emissions of the electrical grid. I see no net win for the environment using biogas/biomass to make hydrogen for FCVs.

I don't believe that FCVs should be eligible for any ZEV credits or other environmental credits unless automakers and other industry supporters fund the construction and operation of a fueling network that uses sufficiently low GHG hydrogen sources. WTW GHG emissions should be mandated to decrease over time from this hydrogen fueling network, just as RPS mandates are forcing reductions in GHG emissions from the electrical grid over time. Tesla is funding the construction and operation of a fueling network for buyers of their cars. Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Air Products, Linde, Praxair, etc. can fund the construction and operation of a fueling network for buyers of FCVs, with no more government subsidies than Tesla gets for building Supercharger stations.

As we know, BEV well-to-wheels emissions depend a great deal on the power source. Cleaning up the grid makes BEVs cleaner. But much more importantly, cleaning up the grid reduces emissions for ALL electricity consumers, the rest of which will dwarf BEV energy consumption for many years to come. Cleaning up the grid must be done whether or not there are BEVs on the road.

@CalDreaming


We are arriving at similar conclusions but I am sorry to say that I think it is important to take issue with some dangerously credulous assumptions you are making in your conspiracy theory theory.

"For many years, there has been a widespread belief among many government energy and environmental agencies, university and national laboratory experts, as well as many within the auto and energy industries that the future of sustainable transport involves hydrogen FCVs".

There is a fallacy of definition in this sentence. Sustainable yes, Environmentally Sustainable. No. The core NREL Fuel Cell commercial viability research is a Big auto and Big Oil consultancy project conducted by BP/Daimler, Chevron/Hyundai, GM/Shell, Ford/BP alongside SMR operators Air Products Inc. http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/pdfs/54860.pdf

There is one throw away little paragraph on the subject of emissions (Section 2.2.2) that DISPROVES the environmental benefits of FCVs by stating that this technology delivers 42mpg well to wheel pollution equivalence to a 21mpg car in the best case and on average 31.5mpg pollution equivalence for on-site SMR. This is for a bunch of super-low performance 134hp Hydrogen-HEVs that are handily beaten on emissions performance by gasoline-HEVs and destroyed on performance by any modern 21mpg car = false equivalence.

This false equivalence has ben leveraged wide open in the marketing of FCVs.

LOOK:

California Fuel Cell Partnership :

“The well-to-wheels reports show that hydrogen made from natural gas and used in a fuel cell vehicle reduces greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 55%-65% compared to gasoline used in a conventional vehicle, and by about 40% compared to gasoline in a hybrid engine.”

LOOK:

Hyundai

"the hydrogen fuel cell provides lower total well-to-wheel emissions than a battery electric vehicle. For the Tucson Fuel Cell driver, this social benefit is achieved with greater utility, versatility and without compromises."


This is called LIES.

LOOK who is falling for it over your head and on your behalf:

California Energy Commission


"Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and others have made long-term big investments in FCVs, and relatively less in BEVs, because they believe FCVs are future of sustainable transport. They would be knowingly setting their companies up for serious harm if they actually believed FCVs were doomed to fail and that BEVs are the future."

I am sorry to say that in this sentence you have set up a straw man.

They are not doing this despite the fact they believe they are doomed to fail. They clearly don't need to believe in it enough to take the risk on infrastructure costs - that needs to be borne by the rest of us by counting on the above LIES to usurp State and Federal environmental budgets by the $100s millions - but they are most definitely doing this to win by the destruction of BEVs in general and Tesla in particular.


I think this Hyundai Tucson FCV @ $499 per month and free hydrogen (given that it is apparently costing Hyundai $145,000 to build each one) ought to be the most ample warning of the market manipulation tactics Tesla is up against in 2015.

I have my own theories of what Musk has up his sleeve to turn this scam into a very painful loss for Big Auto, but meanwhile it is imperative in my view to take issue with government environmental funding pouring into a war chest to fight against the environment - and Tesla as target numero uno.

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+1, any response?

So far a simple acknowledgement. I also got a nice letter Phd from Aerovironment and a nice endorsement from a Harvard transportation professor.

Also getting seriously checked out on Linkedin by fuel cell guys - Ballard power etc.
 
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I don't, the regulations tend to be that non fixed, pressurised hydrogen storage needs to be hydrostaticly tested by an approved testing lab every 5 years. Ie these cyclinders will need to be removed and sent to a approved lab and validated every five years. Inconvenient yes, expensive yes, safe yes. Its the equivalent of having a recall legislated in, on a 5 yearly cycle.

Good luck on getting even 90% compliance on that.