China Market situation and outlook

[32no]

Speaking of China, Tesla just introduced read executive seats in all markets. The option costs $2000 in the US, but includes the $750 subzero weather package and requires the $3500 premium interior package.

http://static04.www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/configurator/MODELS_20150111/1440/UI/ui_option_executive_second_row_seats_large.jpg

 

[Gerasimental]

Wow, those look seriously nice.
On second viewing maybe they're a bit TOO deep/bowl-shaped?

Also does choosing this option mean you no longer have a middle seat in the back?

 

[uselesslogin]

Also does choosing this option mean you no longer have a middle seat in the back?

Yes there is no middle seat in the back the VIN digit has been there for some time as there being a version with only 2 rear seatbelts.

 

[chickensevil]

Wow, with this they are almost out of things to bring them up to par with the other luxury brands as far as "luxuries" that have been missing. I think all we need is the vented seating (air conditioned) and that will be just about everything I can think of... minus a giant analog clock or extra storage compartments... and I hope neither of those ever come to market... bleh.

 

[jkliu47]

Wow, with this they are almost out of things to bring them up to par with the other luxury brands as far as "luxuries" that have been missing. I think all we need is the vented seating (air conditioned) and that will be just about everything I can think of... minus a giant analog clock or extra storage compartments... and I hope neither of those ever come to market... bleh.

I was in Hong Kong during the Xmas holidays - Tesla's in Hong Kong island are all over the place - I see at least one to two a day. Awareness of the brand is rising rapidly - even the family's driver comments on the Tesla's when we encounter them in traffic. However, the main comment I hear from friends is the fact that it lacks back seat amenities. These are the next wave of owners - not primarily owner drivers, more rear seat riders.

The new seats are great, and the wider opening rear doors address accessibility issues. But an 'extended' version of the Model S (Model SL?) would address the need for the 'limo' market. A beneficial side effect might be the inclusion of a 110 KWh battery option (using the additional wheelbase for a larger battery).

 

[chickensevil]

An 'extended' version of the Model S (Model SL?) would address the need for the 'limo' market. A beneficial side effect might be the inclusion of a 110 KWh battery option (using the additional wheelbase for a larger battery).

This can be the ultimate limo for cruising between cities in the mainland China!

I wouldn't expect them to stick a larger pack in those than you can fit in the other cars. Simply because everyone would just order the "extended version" just so they could get more range. If what has been thrown around recently about the Model X is true then they would likely avoid sticking a larger pack in an extended version just to avoid adding weight to the car.

On the other hand, the larger car would be more weight and possibly add an effect on drag (possibly)... so you might not really gain any added range and a larger pack would likely just bring it back up to the same number of miles.

 

[techmaven]

edit: Chinese EV subsidies for 2015:

translation (with my poor chinese):
top row: range R in km. 80<R<150, 150<R<250, R>50
next three rows: subsidies for pure EVs for 2013,2014,2015
last three rows: subsidies for plug in-hybrid EVs for 2013,2014,2015.

values in wàn yuan, i.e. 10,000 yuan

Example: A model S produced in china would receive a 54,000 yuan (~$8,700) subsidy.

It is not clear to me that EV subsidies are available to non-Chinese made EVs. Can you confirm these are offered to Tesla owners?

 

[jkliu47]

"Example: A model S produced in china would receive a 54,000 yuan (~$8,700) subsidy."

Bolded words are mine.

 

[ScepticMatt]

It is not clear to me that EV subsidies are available to non-Chinese made EVs. Can you confirm these are offered to Tesla owners?

Not until they have local production iirc.

 

[32no]

Wow, with this they are almost out of things to bring them up to par with the other luxury brands as far as "luxuries" that have been missing. I think all we need is the vented seating (air conditioned) and that will be just about everything I can think of... minus a giant analog clock or extra storage compartments... and I hope neither of those ever come to market... bleh.

Don't forget about infinite detente doors, those are an absolute necessity.

 

[chickensevil]

Don't forget about infinite detente doors, those are an absolute necessity.

Patent US5346272 - Door hinge with infinitely adjustable detent - Google Patents

Oh wow, that is really cool! I don't think I have ever experienced a car door with that on it.

Conventional vehicle door hinges have mechanical spring detente mechanisms that provide holding force for the vehicle door when the door is open at select positions. According to typical detente mechanisms, the door must be in one of a few select positions in order to have a detente holding force. When the door is not in one of the few select positions, no holding force is provided.

Advantageously, the method and apparatus of this invention provide a vehicle car door with infinite number of detente holding positions. Advantageously, this invention provides a vehicle car door with a hinge coupled to an electromagnetic brake, which electromagnetic brake activates in any position when the vehicle car door is held in that position for a predetermined period of time. Advantageously, this invention provides an electromagnetic brake for a vehicle door hinge that automatically releases when the door is moved from the detente holding position.

What cars already have this? I can't tell you how annoying it is on a hill in a tight space to need that sweet spot between the two current detentes this would totally solve that issue.

 

[maoing]

This definitely helps the China sales. The most complained 3 issues in China, #1 lack of service centers; #2 super charger networks not mature; #3 inferior interior and seats.

In China, when people spend money on model S kind of cars, it not only focuses on performance, probably focuses more on the luxury.

Speaking of China, Tesla just introduced read executive seats in all markets. The option costs $2000 in the US, but includes the $750 subzero weather package and requires the $3500 premium interior package.

http://static04.www.teslamotors.com...i_option_executive_second_row_seats_large.jpg

 

[LST]

Patent US5346272 - Door hinge with infinitely adjustable detent - Google Patents

Oh wow, that is really cool! I don't think I have ever experienced a car door with that on it.

What cars already have this? I can't tell you how annoying it is on a hill in a tight space to need that sweet spot between the two current detentes this would totally solve that issue.

Aston Martins have doors that stay open at any given angle (DB9 / V8 Vantage) at least from 2006 on, IIRC. I don't know if this functions electromagnetically. In addition to this cool feature, they open up also with an upward movement. This prevents the door to scratch at the curb. I think it was called "swan-doors". ...some influence of Chris Porrit ?

 

[chickensevil]

Aston Martins have doors that stay open at any given angle (DB9 / V8 Vantage) at least from 2006 on, IIRC. I don't know if this functions electromagnetically. In addition to this cool feature, they open up also with an upward movement. This prevents the door to scratch at the curb. I think it was called "swan-doors". ...some influence of Chris Porrit ?

Yeah, I have barely laid eyes on an Aston Martin (and I don't think it was a relatively recent one at that) nevermind gotten to see it up close. They aren't too common over here in the US. But it sounds like a great design concept and sounds like something that more people should do in their cars. Not necessarily the swan doors, but certainly the infinitely adjustable detent.

 

[uselesslogin]

Article in Bloomberg today Elon is quoted:

“China is a small percentage of our sales right now,” Musk said, describing the market as “a wild card that seems to change for reasons we don’t understand.”

Musk to Build Satellites in Seattle in Drive for Mars - Businessweek

 

[chickensevil]

Article in Bloomberg today Elon is quoted:

Musk to Build Satellites in Seattle in Drive for Mars - Businessweek

Small compared to what? It was their number 2 market in the last ER. But of course the US makes all other markets look quite sad...

 

[uselesslogin]

Small compared to what? It was their number 2 market in the last ER. But of course the US makes all other markets look quite sad...

I would take that to mean that at least as far as new orders coming in right now US and Europe are now #1 and 2. And the US is by far the strongest at this point.

 

[Ingenieur]

This kind of confirms my thesis about initial sales push being due to Veronica Wu selling to bulk sellers.

I think the fact that they expanded the sales network to 9 stores (they call them Experience center = Store+Service center) he still says sales are low is worrisome, sales should rise with more stores not decline.

Imo China is biggest problem market

 

[chickensevil]

This kind of confirms my thesis about initial sales push being due to Veronica Wu selling to bulk sellers.

I think the fact that they expanded the sales network to 9 stores (they call them Experience center = Store+Service center) he still says sales are low is worrisome, sales should rise with more stores not decline.

Imo China is biggest problem market

You say that like there could be an overall demand issue... the wait times would disagree with that assessment. If there was an issue with Q4 I would chalk it up to production issues vice demand. Maybe that wasn't meant to be implied... just wanted to make sure we were all on the same page here... this is not suggesting a global demand issue.

I am sure there are things they can do to continue to win over and cater to both Asia and European markets, but I would think most of these would be in order to tap into new demand levels vice maintain existing levels. And on that front they have clearly shown efforts to work on that on the EU markets by upping the top speed to 155 and increasing efficiency of driving at higher speeds (more to come on both fronts, since neither issue is fully resolved yet... but the intent is there) along with a far more dense Supercharger layout than anything we have in the US. And for China the Executive seats are totally to cater to their whims. I think it is just tough in both areas because people tend to flock toward things they know and support companies that are local to their market.

 

[Ingenieur]

I have no clue about demand outside China, really!
I guess 2015 will see ca. 42k sales with 21-2k in US, 10k in Europe (Norway in -40% but Rest up), 7-8K in China/HK 2-3k Rest of the world.
Thats ca. 30% above 2014, all depends on Model X and China imo.