Canada is being flooded with invites

[kzod]

Good news/ Bad news.

The Bad is that US deliveries are being slowed down to maximize EV rebates for as many people as possible. But the rate they are inviting Canadians is a good sign that production is increasing (or they hope it will). FUD interpretation would be that they are at the point where they would beg lie and cheat to get our cash. They have plowed through all Tesla Employees (admittedly just stores here), Owners, and are now inviting all early reservations including a couple days after reveal. So they could be reaching their goals or most Canucks are waiting for AWD.
I'm a non-owner line waiter, but was so far back in the line that it was close to 1:00 pm by the time I got through (and there were still another hundred behind me!) at Yorkdale mall in Toronto. Too impatient to wait and wanted to lock in my own rebate, so I ordered. But I also would have preferred giving them my cash for the upgrade.

 

[likeafox]

Not gonna lie, as someone who was day 1 in Austin, but waaay far back, I'm bummed. I want first production, take my money Elon. But if they're doing this to maximize the tax credit for the US, I'll (im)patiently grin and bear it.

 

[Chris350]

Personally, as much as I would love the tax credit.... I would prefer a car at this point....

 

[John Lamoureux]

Personally, as much as I would love the tax credit.... I would prefer a car at this point....

Somewhat agree. While the tax credit would help, my current car is having issues and I don't feel like pumping any additional funds into it.

 

[Chris350]

Somewhat agree. While the tax credit would help, my current car is having issues and I don't feel like pumping any additional funds into it.

That's where I am at.... 2000 Acura TL..... Sporting 275k in mileage.... Paint just about gone.... Transmission just barely hanging on (2k repair)... Small things broken here and there... Just had to replace the alternator (was pushing too much power to the battery causing the battery to go bad)... No A/C (killer here in Florida summers!).... Leaking oil (needs new oil pan).... But still get's 25+ miles to the gallon...

So, as I said.... Keeping this car alive would certainly eat up any tax credit.... MEESA NEEDA CAR!

 

[McRat]

Well that pretty much locks it in.

US non-owners are getting another timeline bump. A third one. Perhaps a 4th one because they will start to service the AWD backlog of US owners pretty soon, and export to other countries, as well as new orders from existing or new MS/X owners.

 

[kzod]

Well that pretty much locks it in.

US non-owners are getting another timeline bump. A third one. Perhaps a 4th one because they will start to service the AWD backlog of US owners pretty soon, and export to other countries, as well as new orders from existing or new MS/X owners.

Not another bump, just the same delay in deliveries to stop them from passing 200k before the end of the quarter. That's why I was surprised to get the invite. Didn't know how many Canadians they could do before going back to USA. But, I'm sure that almost every single car they produce during that quarter will go to Americans. So, if they get close to 5k/week that would be an extra 60,000 people getting the full rebate.

 

[ℬête Noire]

So they could be reaching their goals or most Canucks are waiting for AWD.

Pretty sure the Invite Spreadsheet had a majority of Canadian reservations indicating they wanted the AWD. No doubt all of you in Ontario that would like the AWD are doing a very serious gut-check right now, so that could shift a lot. Especially with word from the US NE that the RWD has done reasonably well on snow.

EDIT: Go to the "States" tab (yeah, I know ) and down to "ON" in the first table. You'll see the % of invites is pretty high. Model 3 Invites However there's slightly more deferring than have configured.

EDIT2: Sample sizes get fairly small for the other provinces but QC is 6 to 1 on defer vs configured. BC is 4 to 6, so the other way around. Which makes sense climate-wise, if most of the later are Lower Mainland.

 

[diamond.g]

Well that pretty much locks it in.

US non-owners are getting another timeline bump. A third one. Perhaps a 4th one because they will start to service the AWD backlog of US owners pretty soon, and export to other countries, as well as new orders from existing or new MS/X owners.

How many of the [edit: US] Mar-May non-owners haven't gotten an invite yet?

 

[McRat]

How many of the [edit: US] Mar-May non-owners haven't gotten an invite yet?

No idea. Certainly a sizeable amount. There would be 65,000 first 24hr reservationists if there were 50% refunds since there were 130k orders. Assuming 50% defer, that's 32,500 without invites going far more pessimistic than most folk believe.

 

[McRat]

For me, it's just the unknown status. I've been driving electric for 5 years, and this EV replaces the 5 year old one that is in great condition.

Perhaps in my case, it's good news. Pretty sure I won't get an invite this year since my date has already been moved to May-July with another bump on it's way after the quarterly likely. So I'll get a bump to September or later, so ideally the Jaguar will be available. It appears to handle great based on reviews, and it can turn off the babysitters. I'd really rather have the Jaguar. Then I can just wait until 2020-2021 when the $35k Model 3 is actually available to replace another car which will be 5-6 years old at that point.

I can pick up Model 3LR tomorrow if I want to pay a surcharge to scalpers, but I've never done that, and I am not going to start.

The reservation process proved to be pointless if you ordered on-line, just like waiting in line at the stores proved a waste to existing owners. You can get a Model 3 from any existing MS/X owner by paying a bit more. Even with no reservation. Even if that existing owner never had a reservation at all before.

 

[ℬête Noire]

There would be 65,000 first 24hr reservationists if there were 50% refunds since there were 130k orders.

Where is that 50% number coming from?

Mind you, it might accidentally get to a reasonable estimate since you didn't account for the likely high % of that first day's orders being international.

 

[McRat]

Where is that 50% number coming from?

Mind you, it might accidentally get to a reasonable estimate since you didn't account for the likely high % of that first day's orders being international.

50% is worst case scenario. It's probably much higher deposit retention, Tesla hides that number from their balance sheet. And the consensus is 70% conversion rate once invited.

International orders are being accepted this year for LHD. We don't know exactly when, but get ready. They will service all existing owners.

So my estimate is based on optimism. It is unlikely to work that smooth for May-July reservationists.

 

[McRat]

If you really want a Model 3 and you are not a legacy owner, post in the Classified that you'll pay an owner in your area $2000(?) for them to help you get your Model 3. It will be registered as new to you, with all tax credits. It sucks that I have personal rule not to pay scalpers and I don't like line cutters. I've come so close. A local owner would do it for free, but I didn't take the offer.

Or if you live in no-used-car-sales-tax state, buy the cheapest Model S you can find. Get you Model 3 order in. Sell Model S.

 

[ℬête Noire]

50% is worst case scenario.

LOL, yeah pulled out of here:

International orders are being accepted this year for LHD.

Huh? I mean besides Canada?

So my estimate is based on optimism.

BWAHAHA

 

[HAL8950]

Keep in mind Canada is only getting offered what has already been offered to the US, The long range battery, black premium interior, to Tesla employees, current Tesla owners and day one non-owner reservation holders. I am an April 4 , 2016 reservation holder (non owner) and I have not gotten the invite.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Keep in mind Canada is only getting offered what has already been offered to the US, The long range battery, black premium interior, to Tesla employees, current Tesla owners and day one non-owner reservation holders. I am an April 4 , 2016 reservation holder (non owner) and I have not gotten the invite.

This week.

 

[McRat]

...

Huh? I mean besides Canada?

...

From Tesla's site right now:

2018

• All-Wheel Drive production begins
• Production of the Standard Battery begins (not sure about putting it in a car, but we will make a battery, maybe more than one)
• International deliveries of left-hand drive vehicles begin this year

 

[ℬête Noire]

International deliveries of left-hand drive vehicles begin this year

Yes, and Canada is "International" for US-based Tesla. Protestations by people claiming it's the 51st state notwithstanding.

So, countries other than Canada?

 

[shrspeedblade]

I'm a day one,non-owner, linestander, and reserved around noon only 40 miles from the factory in Fremont. I still haven't gotten the invite yet, but am actually rather encouraged by it.

This is exactly what we were talking about 6+ months ago. Think about it, orders happening now will be delivered late in the 2nd quarter probably, so Tesla is probably trying to hit 200k U.S. deliveries in July and stretch the full tax credit out to the end of 2018. A partial tax credit could last through 2019! That means more options with the full credit later in the year for people who stood in line, which was allegedly what many people wanted (or at least said they did 6 months ago).

Tesla said they'd, "do the right thing" and apparently they are. I don't find that anything to b**** about!

Knock yourselves out, Canada! Congrats!