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BMW I3 outselling Tesla
- Thread starter Dchint
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- Electric Vehicles
Vger
Active Member
This is silly for yet another reason: Elon would be cheering BMW on. The point is to get ICE cars off the road. There is a HUGE hill to climb to do that. We have all gotten used to Tesla having ridiculous market share numbers because it was so far superior in every way (except price/afforability) than any other EV. Now that the market is picking up, there are a lot more people saying, gee if I could afford it I would buy a Tesla, but since I cannot, I am buying XYZ.
All good for the movement people; all good.
All good for the movement people; all good.
dhrivnak
Active Member
Vger
Active Member
I don't think BMW is in it for the compliance car game; I think they are serious. There is too much investment in carbon-fibre and other high manufacturing tech for a compliance car exercise.
If they come out with an "i5" that is less goofy-looking and longer range, I think it will sell very well. BMW is a great and popular nameplate.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
There's some significance to YTD (even though as others point out it may have to do with the factory closing for the Model X and the allocation of units to other markets), but one month definitely doesn't really mean anything, esp. with the i3 still being early in its life (likely with some "pent up" demand).
Saw this as well, ignoring the i3 early sales for a moment, the overall 2014 ModelS delivery drop off is alarming compared to 2013. I wonder what is the reason
- Tesla routing cars to serve international markets?
- Less orders from US?
Do anyone know if the order to delivery time has gotten longer in US? If not, wouldn't it suggest a reduced order rate in US compared to 2013?
Peter_M
Member
Another way to say what others are saying: if you calculate market share in dollars rather than units (which is the only sensible way to do it unless you're only considering a single vehicle class), Model S is on top by a long shot.
Tesla is certainly diverting significant amount of focus to non-US markets (Sales, Superchargers, Accessories). Wait times in the US have probably gone up since last year. When I ordered my MS (85kWh) last October, it was ready for delivery in two months. I don't think the 60kWh versions were taking much longer. I have heard late spring and early summer orders from this year having to wait longer than four months for delivery.
Longer wait times would suggest the demand hasn't waned and it is mainly US supply limited due to international markets. But if the demand level is same as 2013 with current delivery rate, one would imagine rapidly increasing wait times. At some point, people would probably decide not to wait so long which then reduces demand.
Anyway, here are some simple math to view the quantitative data (from EV sales estimate and Tesla's Q1/Q2 2014 financials)
- 3500 (Q114 US delivery estimate) / 6157 (Q114 WW deliveries) = 57% (Q114 US/WW deliveries)
- 3900 (Q214 US delivery estimate) / 7579 (Q214 WW deliveries) = 51% (Q214 US/WW deliveries)
- (35000 - 6157-7579) / 2 = 10,632 car delivery necessary in each of Q3/Q4 quarter to meet 35000 2014 delivery projection. This is 1.4X Q2 delivery rate. Q2 financials quote 9000 production (10% less for delivery?) so Q4 deliveries are going to have to hit probably close to 14k to make 35k delivery numbers.
- 8500 (2/3 of 2014) x 1.5 / 17650 (2013 sales) = 72% is a projection 2014/2013 US deliveries based on linear extrapolation of first 2/3 of the year. But we can see Tesla's planned production+delivery likely will grow rapidly towards the end of the year so should be higher than 72% of last year for US delivery.
So yes, US sales/delivery are probably down a little but WW volume is going to hit 2X 2013. And the recent factory production revamp makes sense to hit the necessary ~1.5-2X delivery rate increase necessary on the last 4+ months of the year to meet 35k target.
Regarding sales against other plug-ins... I was curious about lease ratios against total sales as leases are a good way to move cars.
Leafs are hitting that $300/month 36 month lease price point which drives sales. Curious what the percentage of sales are. BMW sales historically have been 50% leases and maybe even higher on the lower price points? Leases are pretty much a innovative solution to get people into more car for cheaper for those that prefers to drive newer cars and shorter ownership.
Tesla started business lease program in Q214. 158 cars are sold through this program in Q2. If this is majority of the leases, then lease is a small percentage of overall sales.
Q2 financial report also note the delivery wait times are increasing globally indicating demand hasn't waned. And they are targeting 100k/year production rate by end of 2015! (not total for 2015 but rather the higher production rate achieved by end of 2015 x 12 months) And for less quantitative data, I see a lot of newer MS's near me in the Seattle suburb
Back to the original topic of the post regarding i3 sales, while i3 might have won the most recent month in US. i3 is experiencing initial pent up demand in the US and Tesla is shifting to scaling sales worldwide at a higher price segment. A lot of background story is bypassed for sensational journalism
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All sales of EVs seem good to me. I would consider (did consider for a while) having an i3 as my second EV, following the Tesla. But I will probably wait for the Model III as my second EV. Time will tell.
The i3 really seems like a different market and a different kind of car, given the range, size, small SUV look and feel. I wonder how much the Model III will be like the i3, but with a 200 mi range...
The i3 really seems like a different market and a different kind of car, given the range, size, small SUV look and feel. I wonder how much the Model III will be like the i3, but with a 200 mi range...
TonyWilliams
Active Member
I hope it's nothing like an i3.
No noisy motorcycle engine, no ugly / quirky exterior, no skinny tires, no suicide doors, no Frankenplug with no place to plug in, et al.
Tesla could clean up with better lease offers. Right now, the lease payments are the same if not slightly more than the finance payments.
Once Tesla can lease their cars for less, orders would be off the charts. And, leasing an EV like a Tesla would be a very good business model. As the maintenance is minimal and the residual would be very advantageous.
I'd buy a fleet if I could and lease them out!
Once Tesla can lease their cars for less, orders would be off the charts. And, leasing an EV like a Tesla would be a very good business model. As the maintenance is minimal and the residual would be very advantageous.
I'd buy a fleet if I could and lease them out!
I do not think they want to. Right now they are pretty well balanced between supply and demand. If they increase demand, they will not be able to increase supply resulting in long delivery delays, and unhappy customers.
so is the ELR. but that's kind of in a class of it's own - the "200% overpriced class".
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