goal post will always be moving for those guys ...the Cybertruck is now 4 years after unveiling and production won't be scaled up until mid 2024... that's nearly 5 years after first unveiling. By the time the Cybertruck has hit full production scaling in 2025.... Ford will have launched the 2nd generation Lightning + Ranger EV and RAM EV / Silverado EV will be ramped up and Rivian is about launch their smaller EV vehicles in 2026....
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The CT line of production is happening the same way ALL of their other rollouts (Model s, Model X, Model 3, Model y) happened. They may have installed a line for capacity over 125k a year. Thats fine. The capacity of a line does not dictate production numbers. They reduce production on lines all of the time when they perform upgrades and changes to the line...etc.
If Tesla installed a line of 100 million capacity - it doesn't mean they should initially roll out 100 million in a year. Neither do they have to.
Not rolling anything back.
This is the same type of production rollout timeline they did with every other vehicle so far. I don't see the problem.
Mrbrock
Active Member
Is it fully functional though?
I get ramping. You start with a fully functional line but you don’t test its max capabilities. In such a report it should be stated we have the capability for 125k but we are currently running at 5k and will ramp over the next year. Set proper expectations.
Lol.. I think what's misunderstood is that there is NO company that HAS to do anything. I mean -seriously think about it. when you sell out every single thing you make...with waiting lines in place - there isn't a whole lot you HAVE to do. There maybe things that people want you to do, but ok.
Tesla (TSLA) is sold out of Model Y for the quarter
Tesla has sold out the Model Y for the quarter in the United States with no more production builds until...
electrek.co
Tesla had a huge capacity line with the Model 3 when it first came out (as a matter of fact - they had 2 lines), however I think we can all say that there was problem with that line. For some reason there were panel gap nightmares. I'm glad they didn't turn that line on full speed and got the panel gap issues fixed before full speed production.
Do you believe Tesla's waiting line would be longer if everyone's expectation is met? I'm serious when I ask that. Their waiting list for Model Y is almost out to February 2024. There are obviously expectations being met somewhere with a waiting list that long.
I really think that Tesla looks at all of these orders (beyond their ability to produce) to dictate a form of success. Can you imagine what's going to happen to Teslas waiting list when interest rates drop on loans?
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It doesn't matter how fast the production line can build CTs, since Tesla is 4680 battery supply constrained. Using the two Gen2 lines in GigaTexas, they can only produce enough 4680 batteries to produce a maximum of 600 CTs per week as of a month or so ago. The battery lines are, in general, increasing in capacity about 20% per month maximum according to a recent Limiting Factor deep dive. Even if we assume an average 20% monthly increase in 2024, which is unlikely since the 3rd/4th 4680 production lines are just now getting under construction, that math works out as follows:
600 Dec 2023
720 Jan 2024
864 Feb 2024
1036 Mar 2024
1244 Apr 2024
1493 May 2024
1791 Jun 2024
2150 Jul 2024
2580 Aug 2024
3096 Sep 2024
3715 Oct 2024
4458 Nov 2024
5350 Dec 2024
That's a total of 29,097 CTs between now and 2025. That's assuming Tesla can maintain a 20% monthly growth rate in 4680 battery production - which is unlikely given the current Gen1/Gen2 lines will eventually reach a maximum production rate, after which Tesla needs the 3rd/4th production lines to come online before we see any increase. If Tesla can get the 3rd/4th 4680 battery production lines online by H2 2024 - then we could see more ramp - but that remains to be seen. I think this is why Musk has repeatedly said that the CT ramp is not going to be like other product ramps, and that the CT will not be material to Tesla 2024 financials either. Under 30k CTs produced is not going to move the needle much at all.
The Limiting Factor has an excellent 4680 battery production video that's worth watching if you're interested in this topic here:
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JetFalcon
Member
What would that mean? Like you could travel from OC to Phoenix with no supercharging? That trips usually needs 2-3 supercharging stops. I should be 2 full charges but there is one part of the trip where I believe has a huge gap so you're forced into an extra supercharging to top off for that gap. I believe from the Palm Springs area to the next Arizona supercharger stop along I-8, maybe Quartzite.
Mrbrock
Active Member
That’s actually 116,388 by your math because it’s 600 per WEEK, not month like yo calculated. Multiply all your numbers by 4 and you’ll be at line capacity by end of 2024 which is what I would expect from the ramp.
Youve presented a lot of linear calculations. Tesla usually doesn't improve linearly. I predict that they will improve their production rate by far than an order of magnitude this year.
There are quite a few additional factories/buildings in GigaTexas dedicated to battery production that aren't online yet.
Let's see where they are in 6 months to both cost and production.
Did you also include 4 years of high inflation? $70K in 2019 is the same as $85K today.
Except in cars. Especially with Teslas.
Model 3 Performance was $62K 4 years ago. It's $51K now. Or 17.75% lower.
Things are even more drastic for MS's and MX's.
So $69,900 for a CT 4 years should be closer to $57,500 today.
Why would you argue to pay more for a CT, if all other Tesla have gotten cheaper!?!?
a
Mrbrock
Active Member
Other teslas have gotten cheaper because they have been in production longer with efficiencies of scale that go along with that. Tesla lost a lot of money per vehicle early in the M3 ramp. The same will be true of CT.
TessP100D
Active Member
What else can you blame the big fail on?
did covid cause the range to drop from 500 to 320 too?
Nonsense.
They got cheaper, then more expensive, then cheaper and cheaper again, because Tesla is manipulating demand to meet sales targets.
Right now, demand for Tesla products is weak, so the price cuts are at their greatest.
That, and the price of EV batteries is on a gradual downward slope.
Logically, CT should cost less than initially advertised 4 years ago. For all of the above reasons.
Unless, of course, Musk thinks he can get away with ripping off the early CT adopters.
Which would be par for the course of Tesla. But hardly a development that any rational CT reservation holder should celebrate, or attempt to justify.
HTH,
a
That only applies to products in full-rate production. The CT has a huge backlog. There's no reason for Tesla to eat the costs during production ramp-up while there is huge demand. If they sell them for cheap, flippers will simply buy them and sell them for more anyway.
You may recall that the $35K Model 3 did not come out for a couple of years after the more expensive ones had been released as well. If you want a cheaper CT, you'll have to wait until those who are willing to pay more have done so.
I've stated this over and over.
Tesla is going to sell EVEY LAST one of the CT's they are building right now - for the price they are selling them right now - no matter who criticizes them right now.
I just don't understand why people are bothered about that. They will get down to the other price soon. I suppose it's not soon enough for some.
As you stated, the same thing happened with the Model 3. They eventually got back down to the price everyone liked.
Mrbrock
Active Member
So just because the battery is cheaper now, Tesla should eat the rest of the cost of a brand new radically designed vehicle that is tough (expensive) to build? The battery is the most expensive single component but jut because the cost of the battery has gone down doesn’t mean all the other components have gone down. Look at the cost of stainless steel now compared to 4 years ago. Same for copper or pretty much any metal. Every other Tesla model has started higher then eventually come down has they become profitable because that allows Tesla to pull demand levers and manipulate prices. Until they make money and each cybertruck built, they won’t pull demand levers. As others have stated, with the large number of preorders, only 10% need to be converted to orders to cover the first year or two of production. They should then be at full ramp and the costs will be lower and we will see cheaper CT.
Look at MY. it got more expensive with high demand until production fully ramped at Austin and now prices are coming down once the order backlog became 0.
zoomer0056
Active Member
Bingo.
High Demand often results in Higher allowed Prices
Low Demand often results in Lower allowed Prices
It's seemingly been that way for the lifetime of economy.