ValueAnalyst
Closed
A couple of things it seems a lot of people miss about the value of the solar roof vs other roofs and why the opportunity cost of financing vs investing else where are silly arguments:
1. I don't know why people think a roof is optional and that having a roof is critical part of a home. The fact is that the solar tiles are for homes that need a new roof or new construction and that don't have solar. Homes with roofs that don't need replacing should go with solar panels.
2. All the arguments you mention fail to take into account the fact that you get a roof that is far superior to the one you are replacing and any other roof you would put on. This has a value that is conveniently left out of many people's calculations to life time return on investment. For instance, no one compares the solar roof to asphalt + solar and includes the fact that the asphalt will need to be redone every 15 years or so or more often with weather damage. Also they ignore the fact that the solar will more then likely need to be reinstalled each time. They concurrently leave off every downside to asphalt + solar when making the comparison.
3. If you put a $10,000 roof on your house that's going to last 15 years, the value it adds to your home goes down 1/15th every year, or worse as it goes down on terms of future replacement cost which will be higher then the cost today. If you put a $60,000 then subtract the solar portion to make it equivalent to the asphalt example you end up with a $40,000 value that declines in value over 100 years. This is because you can replace both solar probs of both solutions every 20 years at roughly the same cost. Assuming the panels don't get damaged by storms that do not impact the solar tiles. Every calculation I have seen outright ignores the fact that a better roof is more valuable to the owner and future buyers and more then makes up for the difference in price with longevity and flat out higher value for better looks.
Lastly, the solar roof is not for everyone. It's for everyone else. Meaning, it you need a new roof and/or you can't put panels on the front of your house and you have few to no other options then the solar tiles are for you. Solar tiles are not for you if you love on an $80,000 house, just tear off your old roof and get asphalt and traditional solar.
People need to stop comparing apples to oranges and then ignoring the benefits and value a superior roof would bring.
I appreciate your math and logic, and I agree with you that there will be demand for the Solar Roof. On the other hand, however, I believe price will have to drop another $20k+ for subsequent versions before the Solar Roof is a mass-market product. The vast majority of consumers simply don't make the logical calculations you presented.
Given your optimism, how many do you expect Tesla will install in 2017, 2018, and 2019? I've estimated 25k, 50k, and 100k, respectively.