2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[vgrinshpun]

Not all of the institutional Q1 SO data is in yet, but so far the total count stands at 110.382M shares, while at the end of Q4 2016 the total count stood at 101.895M shares. So the institutional SO increased by 8.487M shares as reported by NASDAQ so far. This count does not include the Tencent Holdings yet (8,167,544 shares, which, if I remember correctly, were bought in Q1), so when all said and done, the Q1 increase will be at around 16M+ shares.

"Nonaccumulating" algobot went rogue...

Mod: fixed transposed digits

 

[Ameliorate]

Not all of the institutional Q1 SO data is in yet, but so far the total count stands at 110.382M shares, while at the end of Q4 2016 the total count stood at 101.895M shares. So the institutional SO increased by 8.487M shares as reported by NASDAQ so far. This count does not include the Tencent Holdings yet (8,167,544 shares, which, if I remember correctly, were bought in Q1), so when all said and done, the Q1 increase will be at around 16M+ shares.

"Nonaccumulating" algobot went rogue...

housekeeping =)
Can never trust those dang algobots

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Was the algobot named "Wanna Cry"?

 

[MitchJi]

I have previously speculated that the sub BMW 3 BEVs will ultimately come from China. Is there an investment opportunity?

Not BMW until has a way to produce affordable BEV sized battery packs.

 

[winfield100]

Blackrock up 5 million in an essentially new position (no report yet from "Blackrock Institutional Trust Company" though).

Fidelity up 2.4 million. 109K in Contrafund, 25K in OTC, 76K in Blue Chip Growth, 14K in Growth Company, 21K in Advisor New Insights A, 85K in Balanced, 58K in VIP Contrafund, 22K in Series Blue Chip Growth. Dunno what the rest of the 2.4 million was in.

T Rowe Price hasn't reported yet.

Bailie Gifford up 336K. Vangaurd up 281K (mostly index fund flows). Jennison up 203K. Morgan Stanley and Bank of Montreal are selling.

TIAA up 167K, which is a 25% increase.

Renaissance doubled their stake, up 366K. They're infamous short-termers but this shows that the momentum trade is starting to really go.

I have a question, perhaps answered elsewhere. I went to the link of institutions holding tesla. I noticed a ?discrepancy? In that the 8.3 million shares tencent is holding (5%) is not in that list. Would not that lower the float even more? Without that it looks like 54 million non institutional. Is the pressure going up

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have a question, perhaps answered elsewhere. I went to the link of institutions holding tesla. I noticed a ?discrepancy? In that the 8.3 million shares tencent is holding (5%) is not in that list. Would not that lower the float even more? Without that it looks like 54 million non institutional. Is the pressure going up

Not all data is in yet.

Institutional ownership does not "lower the float." Institutionals can sell too. And not all institutionals are ultra-long-term investors; actually, majority aren't.

Institutional ownership is way over-emphasized in this thread. It's who the specific holders that have some meaning, but even that can be useless in most cases.

 

[brian45011]

I think Blackrock is the single largest investor in BP.
And so it begins....?

Or "deja vu all over again"
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000108636412000664/tesla.motors.inc..txt (Over 5% holder Feb 9, 2012)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000108636412003154/tesla.motors.inc..txt (Under 5% holder Dec 6, 2012)

 

[bobo]

No complicated stuff like premarket. I called my bank's local office and asked to speak to the person who handled stock, and he called their back office which handled overseas transactions. The walk-in office closes 3pm but staff may remain until 4.30, maybe later -- but sometimes busy or out of office. Nasdaq opens 3.30 local time, so that leaves at best two hours. Hard to pick a good price point inside that time window and with those border conditions!

I like Svenska Handelsbanken, but they only let you trade stock in some markets (Nordic?) online so I randomly picked Nordnet Bank in order to enable real-time trades, and some time later they enabled tax-deferred stock trading accounts for North America too, which removes another obstacle and simplifies life for me.

Time zones are a fact.They still mess up my tv watching. I might give that up.

I am also using Nordnet and have noticed that their android app sometimes has huge delays showing the TSLA price. So I am checking the prices on Google first when buyng via the app.

 

[winfield100]

Not all data is in yet.

Institutional ownership does not "lower the float." Institutionals can sell too. And not all institutionals are ultra-long-term investors; actually, majority aren't.

Institutional ownership is way over-emphasized in this thread. It's who the specific holders that have some meaning, but even that can be useless in most cases.

my comment question was very imprecise, i was on a "malfing" 'not-so-smart phone' and it took ~20 minutes and posted by itself.
Vingr... posts daily, sometimes multiple times institutions who loan their share to short, but overall the trend seems upward as to the "big guyz n girlz" accumulating. a simple look at an A/D line shows selling pressure, late march 2016 to !!TADA!! 11/30/2016/Ron Baron RobinHood Conference/tencent starting aquisition/MarkB Spiegel TSLA bottom. and a steady increase of ~81 million shares (-280 to -191 A/D line). So to my uneduxcated eye as those shares get bought (trend line) and slowly? (6.5 months) go harder to buy/borrow the ?float? (mprecise term) decreases and even though the # of shares borrowed/shorted is effectively the same as it was on 11/15/2016 and 6/30/2016 Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
it's UP $113/share or a loss of ~$3.7 billion in the last year for the shortz. eventually, they will get tired, options will expire, carrying costs will squeeze, and orchiotomies will stop being done. thats sorta what i meant by "less float"
"I am but an egg" at this anyway and i find much good info here
It matters not, folks are accumulating
"but they got no profitz!" "their numberz are hoohah" "but, it should go down, not up"

 

[Lessmog]

I am also using Nordnet and have noticed that their android app sometimes has huge delays showing the TSLA price. So I am checking the prices on Google first when buyng via the app.

Yeah, I think that Nordnet quotes are generally delayed by ~15 minutes -- with the possible exception that when you are in the actual trade making mode it may be nearly instantaneous (I hope so!)

I'm not using any app, just the web interface from a browser.

 

[RobStark]

He's probably reading the same websites I am about how the Bolt simply is not being distributed nationally despite prior claims that it was.

Cars.com


There are 3597 Bolts sitting on dealer lots 500 miles from Los Angeles and ~10k orders in Europe for the Ampera-e. 4k orders in S Korea but an allocation of ~200 for 2017.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Not all of the institutional Q1 SO data is in yet, but so far the total count stands at 110.382M shares, while at the end of Q4 2016 the total count stood at 101.895M shares. So the institutional SO increased by 8.487M shares as reported by NASDAQ so far. This count does not include the Tencent Holdings yet (8,167,544 shares, which, if I remember correctly, were bought in Q1), so when all said and done, the Q1 increase will be at around 16M+ shares.

"Nonaccumulating" algobot went rogue...

Mod: fixed transposed digits

So let me get this straight, out of 164M total shares, Elon owns ~30M, institution owned 101M at end of Q4, so there were maybe 33M out there to play with at the end of Q4 (I know inst. can still lend out shares), and 16M+ of these shares got snatched up in Q1?

 

[Starno]

So my little prediction for tomorrow :
- High at 329,40
- Low at 323,15
- Close at 327,58

 

[dandurston]

So let me get this straight, out of 164M total shares, Elon owns ~30M, institution owned 101M at end of Q4, so there were maybe 33M out there to play with at the end of Q4 (I know inst. can still lend out shares), and 16M+ of these shares got snatched up in Q1?

There was a lot more than 33 million "out there to play with" because of short sellers. The shorts have added tens of millions of shares to the pool. Obviously they'll have to buy them back eventually, but right now there are a lot more than 164M shares that people own. More like 200M.

 

[TrendTrader007]

i am on the verge of increasing my total stock position significantly over the next few days. seriously considering adding another XXXX shares depending on market conditions. I'm painfully aware that TSLA may not give me this opportunity and there is a distinct probability that it may "run away" from me starting tomorrow. if this happens then i will just have to be content with my current position. no point in chasing a runaway stock. o the other hand, if TSLA behaves itself and simply consolidates then i will definitely make new buys
it's basically a win win situation. if as i suspect, the SP takes off starting tomorrow then i make tons of pennies in my current positions which as i have indicated before top X shares directly as well as indirectly through call options, OTOH, if TSLA is sedate then buying another XXXX shares might net me another few cents down the road. we will see
it may be worthwhile examining TSLA chart in short order

 

[TrendTrader007]

For the record those who think that this is a double top are plain wrong
The stock is setting up very nicely for a huge record setting run
To the untrained eye, everything looks like double or triple top or head and shoulders
This is a coiled spring ready to jump up any day now
For the sake of my new buys I hope it's not tomorrow but in a few days but all is game Now

 

[TrendTrader007]

The biggest single reason why TSLA will not fail is not technical or fundamental or not even the fact that short sellers are making wrong headed bets
TMC
That's right. Over my years of investing I've never come across a single company that has a fan base like TSLA maybe with the exception of AAPL. I don't know if AAPL investors have an Apple investors club or not
A company like Tesla that has a huge fan base and universally loved products is not going to fail. Period

 

[TrendTrader007]

This stock is likely to turn into a growth monster with the kind of runaway growth in revenues and earnings that are the stuff of stock market legend.
I have a feeling that TSLA may just bring the late 1990s back again. It may not be 2013 but 1999 all over again. If that happens and this sucker takes off like there is no tomorrow then the shorts will see the kind of squeezes that will cause many to make or lose fortunes depending on what side of trade.
I don't think it will be a single relentless short squeeze. I may be wrong and it may end up being a sustained 45 to 60% sustained short squeeze over a period of months but more likely there will be series of short squeezes with a final explosive melt up in stock price which will take the stock to unprecedented and unbelievable heights.
Those suckers who will buy then will be like Devil takes the Hindmost
Those who sell at or near the top will make fortunes
I am totally revved up ready to load up the truck next week
All I hope is that this sucker does not rocket up before I can buy more

 

[Bet TSLA]

This stock is likely to turn into a growth monster with the kind of runaway growth in revenues and earnings that are the stuff of stock market legend.
I have a feeling that TSLA may just bring the late 1990s back again. It may not be 2013 but 1999 all over again. If that happens and this sucker takes off like there is no tomorrow then the shorts will see the kind of squeezes that will cause many to make or lose fortunes depending on what side of trade.
I don't think it will be a single relentless short squeeze. I may be wrong and it may end up being a sustained 45 to 60% sustained short squeeze over a period of months but more likely there will be series of short squeezes with a final explosive melt up in stock price which will take the stock to unprecedented and unbelievable heights.
Those suckers who will buy then will be like Devil takes the Hindmost
Those who sell at or near the top will make fortunes
I am totally revved up ready to load up the truck next week
All I hope is that this sucker does not rocket up before I can buy more

You know, when people start talking like this about TSLA, the next thing that happens is that it tanks. While things are looking pretty good right now, pending execution on Model 3, it's still quite speculative. There's nothing inevitable about a short term rise.

Me, I'm strongly positioned for TSLA going up, so I know what I'm rooting for. A year from now, if they execute, TSLA will be significantly higher. But tomorrow? Next week? Who knows?

 

[TrendTrader007]

One thing I wanna make clear:
This is the 6th straight year of Nasdaq gains
This has never ever happened in Nasdaq history before
The only time this happened to Dow Jines was 9 years straight from 1990 to 1999
I suspect we are in 1996 currently so we got another 3 years of profits possibly say until 2020 or so
Then the markets may go into extended bear market
There will be 1997, 1998 style crashes over the next 3 to 4 years
I'll trade TSLA like there is no tomorrow and I totally intend to make a fortune over the next 3 to 4 years
No time to waste