2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Crowded Mind]

I don't hear anyone saying on this thread, "this ER makes me nervous, I'm getting out." I think longs have settled into a wait for Model 3 mode. Nobody wants to miss that upswing, when it comes. More immediately, I still believe that Q1 delivery numbers and ER should look very nice, as alluded to in the letter (ER at least). The future looks really sketchy for shorts, and so if we see some more big dog shorts jump ship this week (400,000 share types), then the SP will definitely climb. There's a certain amount of ambiguity in the short run about this ER, and ambiguity is something the shorts have been known to take advantage of by selling hard on opening to define the ER as a negative. The problems with this approach is 1) shares available to short may be in short supply and 2) the big dog shorts who were so successful with manipulations in the past may already be out and not interested in coming back in. If I see a dip on open I'll be watching it carefully for a true reversal. Such a dip might be our best buying opportunity this week.

Couldn't agree more. Today was severely lacking in surprises (aside from Wheeler, thankfully Deepak mitigates that a bit) which is a good thing at the stage we're at. One giant message of "everything is still on track". My opinion is that this gives us the "all clear" signal to continue our current uptrend, macro-environment willing. FOMO is a powerful thing.

 

[neroden]

Me too. Where did you get the pessimistic quote that you attributed to me?

Total quote muck-up (I think I was interrupted in the middle of posting), probably not you. Sorry!

 

[doctoxics]

As others have already posted, the biggest news for me was that Model3 margins would be similar to Model S and X's (~20%). Confirms previous guidance that Model3 would be cash positive from early in the production ramp. I expect that this Model3 margin guidance alone will propell the stock price higher.

 

[theschnell]

I expect a push towards max pain by Friday. So I see close on Friday somewhere between $260 and $270. Probably in the neighborhood of $270 more likely. I am still very bullish long-term, but relatively neutral to perhaps slightly bearish for the next couple of weeks. Obviously if we have a strong day Thursday, then you can throw this prediction out the window, but I expect a decent open, maybe $280 to $282 at most, and then move down throughout the day and close around $275 or less. Then move down to $270 or less Friday.

 

[1kEE]

I expect a push towards max pain by Friday. So I see close on Friday somewhere between $260 and $270. Probably in the neighborhood of $270 more likely. I am still very bullish long-term, but relatively neutral to perhaps slightly bearish for the next couple of weeks. Obviously if we have a strong day Thursday, then you can throw this prediction out the window, but I expect a decent open, maybe $280 to $282 at most, and then move down throughout the day and close around $275 or less. Then move down to $270 or less Friday.

Considering AH trading was between 278-282, I think 260 to 270 by Friday is a pretty drastic prediction.... really don't see a motivation for the stock to go down that much.

On the flip side, considering in both the pre-market and after hours trading today 282 posed resistance, I wouldn't be surprised if we bounce around between 27x and 282 for a few days.

I think I will sell some 290 Feb24 calls on extra day trading stock I have left over. My 287 sell orders didn't execute in the AH (we know what happened last time I sold calls hahah).

Edit: I'll look at pre-market tomorrow before committing to selling 290 calls...

 

[dennis]

Does this include S,X and 3? Then how much is it per week for Model 3 part? Seems like 2.5k-3k a week. So, there isn't a way to reach 50k M3 this year, even in this very optimistic scenario.

Why don't you take the time to read the Q4 Update Letter? It's right there in the first paragraph:

Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.

 

[dennis]

There was a jump from the $273.51 close to $280 just after market close; a further rise prior to the webcast; a drop during the webcast, and then stability at $278 with a slight drop to $277.67 at 8 PM.

I was monitoring the AH price during the CC. It dropped right after Elon announced that Wheeler was leaving, and then partially recovered. It dropped again when Elon was talking about a potential capital raise. Seemed predictable to me.

 

[Richgoogol]

It's down in premarket now.

 

[Gerasimental]

Que pasa?

 

[JBRR]

"Tesla outlook has improved, says RBC Capital RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak says he is more confident in the ramp and profitability of Tesla's Model 3 vehicle, which he believes is "the key factor for the stock." However, he sees some negative developments, including guidance for flat deliveries of Model S/X vehicles in 1H17 versus 2H16, higher than expected capex and the CFO change. Spak raised his price target on the shares to $314 from $245 but keeps a Sector Perform rating."

Read more at:
Tesla outlook has improved, says RBC Capital TSLA - The Fly

 

[Nate the Great]

It's definitely oversold in the PM.

270 and dropping.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Que pasa?

View attachment 216042

This is likely a last ditch attempt for shorts to push TSLA down. Delivery numbers come out for Q1 in just over 5 weeks. Then we have Model 3 in less than a quarter from that point and then solar roof. If the share price goes up now then Elon gets his capital raise at a great price, dilution is minimal, and the failure of TSLA is reduced to a very small percent. Shorts need to push the share price down and crush the chance of a good capital raise, and quick, or they may never get another chance for their dream scenario. There will always be shorts that think TSLA is overpriced but the chance of a bankrupt TSLA continues to diminish every week.

 

[Sudre]

I think true longs are satisfied with the ER.

I think the prediction for Model 3 will be considered BULLS&@$ by bear and weak longs. Analysts were already not figuring on any significant M3 production for the year so they obviously do not believe what the company is telling them OR there will have to be upgrades coming up soon.

I think this ER is flat. The information is not a surprise to us longs so we are not going to get excited and buy thousands of shares. It's not exciting so weak long will take profits if/when they have them and wait for a low point to jump back in. Bears will see it as a blessing and return to shorting the hell out of it.

On the bright side the market for TSLA usually does the opposite of what I think.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA likely to find support at $264 or so
Worst case scenario $245 to $250
I'm not impressed by shorts efforts to push down SP
Longer term stock remains a screaming buy
I'm not selling a single share other than to meet margin calls which would not be due until later next week
Selling $TSLA here will be an idiotic move IMO
SP is super volatile and will shake out weak longs and embolden naive shorts
The best move may be to do nothing and sit out the volatility

 

[Runarbt]

IMO the news about picking locations for Gigafactory 3 and 4 and possibly 5 later this year is huge!

So is confirmation that demand for S and X is still growing, and Model 3 according to plan.

What if they spent a bit more cash that consensus? Hopefully Q1 will be show solid black numbers.

(I bought some protective puts right before ER, and believed those funds would be lost when the report came out.. seem I might close these neutral today.)

 

[Tslynk67]

Selling $TSLA here will be an idiotic move IMO

Indeed, anyone holding $TSLA now would be nuts to off-load (short positions excepted, of course). What we've seen to date is just the apero, the 11-course meal is still to be served.

My position isn't bigly, but it's enough now to pay for my wife's M3 on profits alone, but I'm going to hold and become a millionaire instead, seems a much better proposition...

 

[AlMc]

$TSLA likely to find support at $264 or so
Worst case scenario $245 to $250
Selling $TSLA here will be an idiotic move IMO

IF all your TSLA investment is ONLY Long shares/J19s then I agree. However, many on this forum do at least some *trading* to try to increase their overall wealth. Taking some profit after this nice run from 180 to 270 with the intent to reinvest either in TSLA again after the dip you describe or in another stock does not make one an idiot. (an idiotic move)

Yes, one might miss further run up but one might also be better off in the long run.

So, I agree with you (except calling others *idiots*) IF you are ONLY a long stock holder but disagree IF you do some trading from time to time.

 

[JBRR]

"Tesla price target raised to $368 from $338 at Baird Baird analyst Ben Kallo raised his price target on Tesla to $368 from $338 following better than expected top line Q4 results. He noted the company missed the bottom line, attributing it to the acquisition costs associated with Solarcity. He noted the production ramp of the Model 3 is on track, but believes the shares' recent rally could pause until the company gets its capital raise out of the way. Kallo reiterated his Outperform rating on Tesla shares."

Read more at:
Tesla price target raised to $368 from $338 at Baird TSLA - The Fly

 

[Drax7]

My quick guess estimates calculations.

Preliminary model 3 production starting July 1 is a bullish starting date. Say 2500 cars get produced over this 2 months
trial period.

Ramping up of production starts on Sept 1 . Say an average of 2500 per week for 15 weeks = 37500 total produced.

My guess estimate is 40,000 model 3 produced in 2017.

Lets say 110,000 model x plus s get produced in 2017.

The combinedl dollar amount is about $13 billion in sales.

Of which say $1 billion should be net profit. A $50 billion market cap
Is realistic, that's over $300 per share.

Based on these faulty assumptions I am buying the fraction that I sold prior
To the ER.

 

[myusername]

Considering AH trading was between 278-282, I think 260 to 270 by Friday is a pretty drastic prediction.... really don't see a motivation for the stock to go down that much.

On the flip side, considering in both the pre-market and after hours trading today 282 posed resistance, I wouldn't be surprised if we bounce around between 27x and 282 for a few days.

I think I will sell some 290 Feb24 calls on extra day trading stock I have left over. My 287 sell orders didn't execute in the AH (we know what happened last time I sold calls hahah).

Edit: I'll look at pre-market tomorrow before committing to selling 290 calls...

and right back to $266.