Rolled about half my 300 J18s in IRA to April 18s for a 310 strike. thinking what to do with rest. Hopefully the share price will move up by then making future rolls easier / cheaper.
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Rolled about half my 300 J18s in IRA to April 18s for a 310 strike. thinking what to do with rest. Hopefully the share price will move up by then making future rolls easier / cheaper.
That 48,257 share block order hit ask/buy side and was dark pool associated. Happened dead on the lows of the afternoon. (so far)
You are obviously a grown man and should not take investment advice from me, or anyone else anonymously on the internet, but I still think going all in on 2020 leaps would be a bad move. On the other hand I think they will likely be a good investment, and will probably buy some myself, I just think they are way too risky to go all in on. Before you go ahead with this stratagem I would encourage you to go back and review the "TSLA trading strategies" thread from Oct-Nov 2015. I don't know how to link it here, but I will copy and paste a few choice quotes.
MitchJi 10/30/2015 "Thanks for your post! I would never have considered J18s @$490-$500 without your post. You helped me formulate a plan. Hold our Mar 16 230's and 240's and cash, until it looks like a good time to load up on J18 490-500's in Nov-Jan. I am very enthusiastic about this strategy."
MitchJi 10/30/2015 "I think we are close to the bottom, so I don't think it's a good time to buy puts. I think it now is a good time for a long-term position with much more leverage. It's like counting cards, the further the odds are in your favor, the more chips it makes sense to put on the table."
Reading a little farther down the thread it looks like you didn't follow this strategy, but you seemed pretty sure of yourself at the time. Could you imagine the carnage if you had gone all in in November 2015 on Jan 18 $500 calls? This was during a period when the greater stock market has had a huge bullish run, and Tesla has had it's challenges, but overall has performed extremely well as a company. Think of the confidence you would have had, if you could see just a peak of the future in late 2015 and knew for sure that in late 2017 Tesla would be selling 100k model S+X, and was sitting on 500,000 Model 3 orders, which was just going into production with rave initial reviews, and the S&P 500 would be 23% higher? You would have made that leveraged bet for sure, and you still would have most likely lost almost every penny you had.
Options are dangerous and should only be a percentage of your portfolio! The good news is that they have so much leverage, you can still make a ton of money if things go right, even if they started as a small percentage of your portfolio.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
And Bad Luck = Ruin. What's your point?
Just if one's eggs had to all be in one basket, TSLA is a damn fine basket.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Right (maybe), but all eggs don't have to be in one basket, unless you only have enough to buy one share.
bdy0627
Active Member
There are a number of posters that invest in Tesla solely or primarily via DITM LEAPs. Essentially, all in with options as a share replacement strategy. However, being DITM and long term, they are much safer than the OTM LEAPs being discussed. Should the stock drop hard for a time, leverage can easily be increased and the LEAPs can be rolled out further for the future ride back up, allowing you to eventually come out ahead. It's not unlike selling shares for LEAPs on a big drop. I agree that going all in on OTM LEAPs fairly close to ATH carries substantial risk.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I encourage you to read my current reasoning!
You haven't given any good reasons for disagreeing with my current reasons. All of your arguments boil down to the sentence in bold. At least I give you credit for being consistent. Two of our other members have failed that basic test:
2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
Your previous post got quite a bit of positive feedback. Some of it was by two of the same people who argued with my statements that I thought that holding J18's was too risky for a substantial percentage of a portfolio.
Those people have just proven that they have zero credibility to provide financial advice.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
That's not true,! You are missing the fact that you can be forced to sell your options but you can hold your shares as long as you need to.
And by following that strategy you lose most of the potential benefits of options. I believe that a better strategy is to avoid LEAPS options until you have excellent reasons to be extremely confident that the SP will increase a lot a substantial amount of time before expiration. I believe that now (between now and mid 2019) is clearly one of those times.
I believe that being all in on LEAPS all of the time is too risky but when it isn't a risky time that strategy is too conservative. Very high risk with medium rewards.
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I don’t think we’ll come to an agreement here. More power to you if you think TSLA at $1200 next month is a massive buy. This thread is becoming near worthless.
I don't think we disagree we just see the same thing but from a different point of view I guess :
I don't care if TSLA reaches $1200 next month or in 5 years.
I just know that in 10 years it will be $6000+ .
200$ or 2000$ doesn't make any difference to me as long as Tesla as a company keeps its path.
And I forget everything in between.
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