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3.2 MWh and "up to" 1 MWh?
I would be shocked if Tesla did not miss out on multiple projects one or two orders of magnitude larger than this in the next year. To be successful, they don't need to win every storage project, any more than they need to sell every premium car.
mmd
Active Member
From the linked statement:
Note 1: "The exercise and sale transactions reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on September 14, 2016."
Note 6: "The sale transactions reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on February 24, 2017."
erthquake
Active Member
Well that settles it. This combined with my first ever sighting of a Marai at the new local hydrogen pump is the last straw. Tesla is doomed. I'm liquidating everything in the morning, and I'm going to put it all into frozen concentrated orange juice. I hear the Dukes are trying to corner the market.
Just to clarify : are you saying this because you expect Level-4 to be available way sooner than everyone else (in July) or because you think the Model 3 production line will only start up way later than anyone assumes (end of year for example)
ValueAnalyst
Closed
The former, but note that the first few thousand will go to employees.
So let's say Level 4 autonomy announced in July at the final reveal event, and software pushed out by November.
Gerasimental
Member
While Model X numbers are up by 200, Model S seems down by 400.
What effect does this have on margins? IIRC MS margins are still better than MX (although at a lower ASP)
What effect does this have on margins? IIRC MS margins are still better than MX (although at a lower ASP)
Reciprocity
Active Member
This seems like good news, but could this be bad news for Batteries? With no net metering the PW2 looks very appealing, less so if the electric company will pay near retail rates for the excess.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Where are you seeing this difference between S and X. I have been expecting X to surpass S for a while now considering the large SUV market is bigger then the large sedan market. The problem is the X is not exactly competitive with all of those large SUVs, but it is really the only green choice as there really arnt even any hybrids. I still expected X to be 30% more then S by this point, it could still be that they cannot produce them at 30% higher rate then S due to additional complexity.
ASP would be higher, but I dont think margins would differ much. They base the selling price on how much it costs to make.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Could you please expand on the bolded part?
Tesla Model X Ties For Best Luxury SUV To Buy In 2016 According To Bloomberg
Tesla Model X wins 'Golden Steering Wheel' award for best SUV
2017 Tesla Model X | U.S. News & World Report
Rankings
- #1in Luxury Midsize SUVs
- #1in Luxury SUVs with 3 Rows
- #2in Luxury Crossover SUVs
- #1in Hybrid and Electric SUVs
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Sorry to be a bother, still not understanding your position completely. Do you think the first few thousands employee-only cars will have the software from the get go? And will first retail customer cars not have the software but get an update pushed by November to enable Level 4?
Reciprocity
Active Member
I agree, I thought it would command similar market share to Model S vs large luxury sedan. But, the X is not an Escalade with a football field sized interior. My neighbors just bought one and would never have contemplated the X because they want to be able to carry 8 people and luggage/gear for all 8 and tow a boat 600 miles between fills and they dont care about putting $100 a fill. It just doesnt fit into that group and its a large part of that segment. Compared with the Model S that dominates over 5/7 series E/S class in terms of pretty much every spec. with the exception of max range. I own an X and you cant really haul that much stuff in it. I think it competes more with the sporty X6 and MB GLX I believe which is a pretty big market. To me, the X should be outselling the S already on a consistent basis. It makes me think its still a bit supply constrained. Tesla has a problem production more then 2400 cars a week. It will be interesting to see how they address that with the Model 3 coming online, I think demand will only go up for S/X once people cannot buy a model 3 for 18 months.
If it does exceed the 30% market, that would be great. 40% would be absolutely amazing, but I just dont see how its going to displace so many of those giant luxoyatchs.
The Aussie end of things is why I've started following the market there (and there's an easy to follow source that is really doing the leg work for me). I think there are 3 (maybe more) significantly sized energy storage tenders in Australia out for bid, or going out for bid, right now. I haven't seen winners announced yet for any of them.
I expect to hear about the 100MWh / 100 days or it's free tender from South Australia this month (soon). South Australia's intention was to pick a vendor / solution, and get the whole thing installed and operational ahead of the Australian summer (which I take to be ~December). So they gotta get a move on, even with at least 1 vendor / supplier promising 90/100 days or it's free.
We've got a Tesla Energy thread here in the Investor's Forum where different people are contributing about activity they hear about in this space. Early indicators that I've picked up on - big scale energy storage is a longer sales cycle than buying a Model X.
Thanks @adiggs and @EinSV. I'll keep fingers crossed that South Australia picks TE this month. Given the timeframe SA wants to have this online, I have to think TE standing up its share of the California storage project end of last year so quickly is a big plus for using TE.
There has been a flurry of news and articles lately which strongly suggest battery storage is set to take off big time this year. TE seems very well positioned to ride that wave. If a number of big projects in next 6 months select TE for hardware, 2017 will be judged the break through year for two biggest parts of Master Plan part 2.
I am also curious on which public sources you are basing the assertion. We are now 4 and a half months since Elon's famous tweet about FSD functions departing notably from EAP in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. Yet there is no public release of anything resembling FSD departing from EAP. Two weeks ago Elon said 'rain sensors and perpendicular parking' would hopefully be available in June. How do you square this with Level-4 installed on employee Model 3's in July?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
A Model S has roughly the same starting price as its direct competitors from BMW,AUDI and MB.
A Model X has a starting price roughly 60% higher than its direct competitors from the Germans.
A Model X has a starting price roughly 60% higher than its direct competitors from the Germans.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm working on a few articles right now, but after those, I wanna look into how Model X market share is evolving vs. Model S.
At first look, it seems to me that Model X is progressing even quicker than Model S, despite the six-month hell.
I agree that Model X is still production constrained, and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
The high price and the initial production problems I think have created some negative bias.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I did not say there is any conclusive publicly available information on this. I'm basing my projection on bits and pieces of publicly available information and piecing them together.
The basis of my prediction relies on Elon's repeated comments on the (at least Level 4 level) LA to NY demo ride later this year.
Secondly, why install FSD-capable hardware on all cars since October 2016 if the software were not to follow closely thereafter?
His comments around FSD being "closer than anyone expects."
The fact that Tesla almost fully replaced Mobileye tech in just six months speaks to their in-house capabilities.
The super secrecy around Model 3 interior and dashboard.
Elon's tweets on dashboard needing less and less controls and indicators as FSD capability increases.
All of these tell me FSD is senior management's top priority now that Model 3 ramp up is pretty much in autopilot and in employees' hands.
And this is as it should be, given FSD's tremendous implications.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I dont believe the July date either, but you have to understand that EAP is not FSD. Meaning, they are not based on the same core set of functionality. EAP is just TACC with lane keeping. It sees cars in front of it and lane markings only. Even Level 3 FSD will use high def mapping and more vision to see things like signs and understand cars vs trucks.
EAP was a hack to replace Mobileye in a hurry. FSD is a whole different monster and requires a lot more time. The additional time is not so much developer time, but more machine learning time. The system needs to see billions of signs, cars, road markings and other images to learn what to look for. In addtion, high-def maps also need to built which requires all those same images as landmarks. Landmarks are used to take 1.5M-3M GPS to a 5-10cm accuracy. The system will rely less on seeing lane markings and more on paths in the high-def maps. If you know where the car is in the world down to 10cm, then you dont need to see the lanes, even in heavy snow. The vision system will be the backup to the high-def map in this scenario and will be used to find landmarks that help the system know exactly where you are in 3d space. The vision and radar will also be used to identify objects that are in your way like cars, or a child darting out into the street. Once those three things come together for the freeways, they can enable Level 3. Once proven out and more areas are mapped in more detail, then Level 4. Once Level 4 proves to be safe, it will be allowed in more and more places and situations like heavy snow and at some point, fully validated as 10x safer then humans. At that point then Level 5 would become available for regulatory approval, which I think will actually come fast. States and the fed are falling over themselves to be the first to approve autonomous driving to save 20k lives a year and I think they are already working on requirements.
My guess is Level 3 by Nov/Dec after the demo. Level 4 - 6 months later. Level 5 - 6 months to year after that in most parts of the US and Europe with other countries to follow as more data is gathered and incorporated.
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