2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[TradingInvest]

Market opportunity for Class 8 Truck. US sales has been hovering around 200k units per year which should translate to about 500k units globally. Freightliner (Diamler Company) is the big dog in the Class 8 market in the United States with about 40% market share. Total addressable market is around $75 billion global for Class 8. Lets speculate if they could reach 20% market share or 100k units, Tesla would generate about $15 billion a year in revenue from trucking. With a late 2019 launch it would likely take them a couple of years to reach that level of volume and market penetration.

A worthwhile market the Class 8 truck could be for Tesla. Revenue cash cow is clearly the Model 3/Y for the foreseeable future. The big wild card to me over the next 5 years is Mobility and Energy. We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits.

2022 Revenue Forecast:
Model S/X 150k Units @100k = $15B
Model 3/Y 1.5m Units @ 45k = $67B
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B
Mobility Service <= $2B ??
Energy <= $3B ??

View attachment 263215

A while back I made a file to predict Tesla's sales in the next 15 years. Here is my forecast for 2022:

Model S+X ASP $80k, units 100k, gross margin 25%
Model 3 ASP $40k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Model Y ASP $42k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Semi ASP $160k, Units 100k, gross margin 30%
Pickup Truck ASP $50k, Units 300k, gross margin 20%
Solar Panel revenue $5B, gross margin 20%
Energy Storage revenue $21B, gross margin 25%
Network revenue $8.8B gross margin 40%
Total revenue $115B gross margin $28B, net margin 14B
float 220m, market cap $420B, per share $1913.

My prediction of 3+Y revenue is $25B less than yours. My energy sector prediction is $23B more than yours.
We got the same prediction on Pickup Truck: 300k units @ $50k ASP; and similar on Semi: 100k units @$150k/160k price; Roadster was not in my calculation, totally forgot about it.

"We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits."
My calculation shows total $115B revenue, $28B gross profit, $14B net.

I think the stock has a decent chance to quadruple in 5 years.

 

[dc_h]

A while back I made a file to predict Tesla's sales in the next 15 years. Here is my forecast for 2022:

Model S+X ASP $80k, units 100k, gross margin 25%
Model 3 ASP $40k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Model Y ASP $42k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Semi ASP $160k, Units 100k, gross margin 30%
Pickup Truck ASP $50k, Units 300k, gross margin 20%
Solar Panel revenue $5B, gross margin 20%
Energy Storage revenue $21B, gross margin 25%
Network revenue $8.8B gross margin 40%
Total revenue $115B gross margin $28B, net margin 14B
float 220m, market cap $420B, per share $1913.

My prediction of 3+Y revenue is $25B less than yours. My energy sector prediction is $23B more than yours.
We got the same prediction on Pickup Truck: 300k units @ $50k ASP; and similar on Semi: 100k units @$150k/160k price; Roadster was not in my calculation, totally forgot about it.

"We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits."
My calculation shows total $115B revenue, $28B gross profit, $14B net.

I think the stock has a decent chance to quadruple in 5 years.

Pickup at $50,000 should be at least 300,000, but perhaps a big brother extended cab on X body for 80,000 and another 50,000 sales.
I keep harping on commercial Sprinter van as well. 100,000 Sprinters for $40 to 50k.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like the Alfa Romeo Giulia won Car of the Year.

When seeing the strength of the 2018 COTY field, some readers might feel our choice of the Alfa Romeo seems out of left field. The Honda Accord, Kia Stinger, and Tesla Model 3all make strong plays for top honors (and received individual first-place votes among our judging panel).

Alfa Romeo Giulia is the 2018 Motor Trend Car of the Year - Motor Trend

The Giulia was the only vehicle whose essence enraptured the jury with its charm and unbridled zeal for driving.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I'm sure that instead of seeing news about how Alfa won (as they are relatively unknown in the US to the average buyer currently despite having been back selling vehicles for a while), we're going to see lots of "MODEL 3 FAILS TO DELIVER" based on being in the running for and failing to get the car of the year award...

 

[ZsoZso]

Looks like the Alfa Romeo Giulia won Car of the Year.



Alfa Romeo Giulia is the 2018 Motor Trend Car of the Year - Motor Trend

Wow, they gave the title to the wet sponge ?

Reviewers of Tesla's Model 3 Are Going Absolutely Nuts Over The Car

"The Tesla Model 3 is here, and it is the most important vehicle of the century. Yes, the hyperbole is necessary," Kim Reynolds of Motor Trend raved: "If anybody was expecting a typical boring electric sedan here, nope."

"Magic, I'm telling you. Magic. And this is the single-motor, rear-wheel-drive starting point. The already boggled mind boggles further at the mention of Dual Motor and Ludicrous," Reynolds continued.

"Have I ever driven a more startling small sedan? I haven't. At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven't encountered before […] [The] 2.0-litre Alfa Romeo Giulia […] feels like a wet sponge by comparison."

 

[Todd Burch]

Well they did say Model 3 received the top vote from at least one judge. Maybe Kim was that judge.

 

[SteveG3]

I suppose the Motor Trend folks struggled to comprehend that the Car of the Century could also be the Car of the Year.

 

[TradingInvest]

I suppose the Motor Trend folks struggled to comprehend that the Car of the Century could also be the Car of the Year.

50 years from now when we look back, I have no doubt Tesla Model 3 will be considered the most important car of the century.

 

[Curt Renz]

50 years from now when we look back, I have no doubt Tesla Model 3 will be considered the most important car of the century.

Indeed, Alfa Romeo Giulia will then become the answer to an obscure trivia question followed by laughter.

BTW, TSLA shares did not jump upward immediately after the Model S was named car of the year five years ago. I wouldn't expect TSLA to be hurt by this latest announcement.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Wow, they gave the title to the wet sponge ?

Reviewers of Tesla's Model 3 Are Going Absolutely Nuts Over The Car

I thought the same thing as soon as I heard the news:

“By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison.”

 

[erthquake]

Is this how Metallica felt in 1989 when they lost the Grammy for best hard rock/metal performance to Jethro Tull?

 

[tander]

A while back I made a file to predict Tesla's sales in the next 15 years. Here is my forecast for 2022:

Model S+X ASP $80k, units 100k, gross margin 25%
Model 3 ASP $40k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Model Y ASP $42k, Units 500k, gross margin 25%
Semi ASP $160k, Units 100k, gross margin 30%
Pickup Truck ASP $50k, Units 300k, gross margin 20%
Solar Panel revenue $5B, gross margin 20%
Energy Storage revenue $21B, gross margin 25%
Network revenue $8.8B gross margin 40%
Total revenue $115B gross margin $28B, net margin 14B
float 220m, market cap $420B, per share $1913.

My prediction of 3+Y revenue is $25B less than yours. My energy sector prediction is $23B more than yours.
We got the same prediction on Pickup Truck: 300k units @ $50k ASP; and similar on Semi: 100k units @$150k/160k price; Roadster was not in my calculation, totally forgot about it.

"We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits."
My calculation shows total $115B revenue, $28B gross profit, $14B net.

I think the stock has a decent chance to quadruple in 5 years.

Pickup at $50,000 should be at least 300,000, but perhaps a big brother extended cab on X body for 80,000 and another 50,000 sales.
I keep harping on commercial Sprinter van as well. 100,000 Sprinters for $40 to 50k.

Try 800k. That's about how many F-series Ford sells. But if you are really looking 15 years out, I'd leave some blank space for stuff we don't even know about. Would not be very surprised if they start making boats, carboats, planes, flying planes, jeeps/mars rovers, hyper loop pods, and I'm not even being that creative. 15 years is a long time in tech.

50 years from now when we look back, I have no doubt Tesla Model 3 will be considered the most important car of the century.

In a less long term outlook, I wonder if they might still consider it for the car of the year next..

 

[Mike Smith]

This will help Tesla with product differentiation:
Model S - MT Car of the Year
Model 3 - Runner-up MT Car of the Year

 

[dandurston]

Motor Trend appears to have leveraged their time with the Model 3 to also write a "first test", which was just posted:
Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 Long Range First Test - Motor Trend

It doesn't say too much. Mostly good handling and power. They don't explore other topics.

 

[30seconds]

MT (and others) just refuse to see the future.

 

[30seconds]

Less than five years ago MT recognized that the Model S was a revolution. Time has shown their decision to be correct.

It’s clear where we are headed with EVs. There were more than a few cars much, much, much more capable than the Bolt last year.

So it’s hard to imagine what they are afraid of this time.

Some options:
1. Burned from last year’s decision
2. Afraid of being right again
3. The Alfa is by far the greatest car ever made & will hold back the tide of the Model 3
4. Strongly influenced by all the negative chatter

Other?

 

[schonelucht]

Unpopular opinion : Car of the century was already named. It's the S. That's the car that showed the world it's possible. The 3 is just a smaller version of the same 5 years later. Surely it's cheaper and better in some ways. But that's just engineering over said 5 years. The S was new thinking.

 

[Mike Smith]

from CNN:
'Motor Trend writers were impressed with the Model 3's performance but some were dismayed at the test car's $60,000 price tag. The Model 3 is touted as an "accessible" car with a starting price of $35,000. Among other factors that kept it from winning were rather tight back seats and cheap-seeming interior materials.'

So it lost because only a $60k version was available.

 

[HG Wells]

Is this how Metallica felt in 1989 when they lost the Grammy for best hard rock/metal performance to Jethro Tull?

NO ! Have you never listened to Jethro Tull ? How can you say that any other band even compares to TULL!

But yes i don't see how any car could have beaten the model 3.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I can forgive them the Model 3 loss considering the hit-or-miss state of software features currently (like the hoops required to get the wipers operating continuously - this should be doable with a combination of the wiper switch and the steering wheel scroll wheel interface, but currently requires at minimum one if not more taps on the touch screen). Really, Tesla shouldn't have let them put it in the running, if they were going to give them one for testing. Better to put that off until it's more polished.