Waiting4M3
Active Member
Think of it this way, CNBC is doing free anti-selling for Tesla.
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How much does it cost now for an S or X? What is the longest a set of tires will last on them now and do you have to buy through Tesla? Will a 3 be significantly cheaper?
DurandalAI
Member
Pretty sure the first C in their acronym stands for Crap. They’re a mouthpiece for their advertisers, pure and simple. CNBC is the Yelp of the finance world, where if you advertise, magically the negative posts are reduced by 50% with the other 50% remaining in an effort to appear unbiased.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I thought it stood for Clueless
I paid $2,000Cdn for four years/80,000km of service; that's expired now (96,000km) and I expect the next annual service will be somewhere between $600 and $800; only a little more than cost for the 2007 Infiniti M35 we used to have.
I replaced the original Michelin Primacys this past spring at 73,000km and a little more than 3 years. They still had life on them, 1 or 2 mm, but I was going into some snow country and decided to replace them a little early. I couldn't get Primacys quickly enough from my local excellent tire shop or from Tesla in Vancouver, so I went with another brand from my local shop (no, you don't have to buy through Tesla).
I would also assume that the possible end to the tax credit will motivate some owners to pull the trigger now but that effect will probably pass quickly — as someone hoping to get the configure email very soon the window to have a realistic chance at delivery in 2017 will soon be past if it isn’t already.
FWIW I don’t put too much stock in either unscientific poll but was pointing out that the results of the poll I mentioned are another reason caution is necessary if extrapolating from reported number of configurations to production rates.
(One correction: Poll I referenced is all owners not CA owners as stated in my earlier post.)
Probably not last as long as those comparable weight cars, if only because everyone will be launching their cars hard for fun
Still better than on the S/X I imagine.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I do not believe the comparisons made that I have seen includes tires at all. The video that was posted here seems to be the model S maintenance plan that you can buy, which obviously does not include tires. Or if it does, I need to reevaluate it, because tires for X are $1,500 and I need a new pair ever year (p.s. I know it does not include tires). I can tell you from my personal experience, 24k miles and $70 maintenance and I could have gotten that for free if I had my tires rotated some place other then Tesla. Though I am due for a new set of tires.
I am thinking about the Tesla App Store since a while and believe it should be a part of Masterplan #3
The Opportunity for Tesla and the owners and developers are only to compare with the Apple App Store and will open a multi Billion $ Market. Not to mention the competitive edge and a tremendous opportunity to individualize your car.
What are your thoughts?
The Opportunity for Tesla and the owners and developers are only to compare with the Apple App Store and will open a multi Billion $ Market. Not to mention the competitive edge and a tremendous opportunity to individualize your car.
What are your thoughts?
Reciprocity
Active Member
It would be crazy to not have an app store. BUT.. two major issues. You need FSD to fully leverage or utilize the app store and there are major security issues, but it should be fairly easy to sandbox the apps and to properly scrutinize the apps before they make it into the car.
If you need new tires every year, how much are you driving? I drove my X100D for around 10,000 miles this summer and the amount of wear on the tires was barely measurable. They should last at least 50,000 miles.
dandurston
Member
Motor Trend 2018 Car of the Year Award can be live streamed below:
http://www.motortrend.com/news/see-...m_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral#sf174476752
Show starts at 8:30 PST. If it's like the last one, they'll do the COTY last, so maybe around 9pm.
http://www.motortrend.com/news/see-...m_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral#sf174476752
Show starts at 8:30 PST. If it's like the last one, they'll do the COTY last, so maybe around 9pm.
I know I should root for the giant ICE companies trying to go electric, but BWM et al don't make it easy.
Electrik reports BMW announced a 200 million euro investment in a new ‘BMW Group Battery Cell Competence Centre’ in order to develop their next generation electric vehicle powertrain [battery cells]. Here is one of the artist renderings of what the Centre is expected to look like when it opens in 2019.
Interesting to compare the scale of the rendering with pictures of the actual Tesla GigaFactory in Nevada. The usual saying won't suffice.
BMW is a decade late and a GigaBuck short.
Electrik reports BMW announced a 200 million euro investment in a new ‘BMW Group Battery Cell Competence Centre’ in order to develop their next generation electric vehicle powertrain [battery cells]. Here is one of the artist renderings of what the Centre is expected to look like when it opens in 2019.
Interesting to compare the scale of the rendering with pictures of the actual Tesla GigaFactory in Nevada. The usual saying won't suffice.
BMW is a decade late and a GigaBuck short.
I read an article about this in German, it's basically just a research center to better understand the technology. A BMW guy is quoted "we must understand the technology but not become yourself a chemical company.
BMW investiert in Batteriezellen-Kompetenz | Wirtschaft | DW | 24.11.2017
It seems Tesla is only one quarter behind Musks twittered ramp up, that's pretty good in my book and even compared to all the analysts. But of course, 3 months is a long time in forums like this, a long time to panic.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Market opportunity for Class 8 Truck. US sales has been hovering around 200k units per year which should translate to about 500k units globally. Freightliner (Diamler Company) is the big dog in the Class 8 market in the United States with about 40% market share. Total addressable market is around $75 billion global for Class 8. Lets speculate if they could reach 20% market share or 100k units, Tesla would generate about $15 billion a year in revenue from trucking. With a late 2019 launch it would likely take them a couple of years to reach that level of volume and market penetration.
A worthwhile market the Class 8 truck could be for Tesla. Revenue cash cow is clearly the Model 3/Y for the foreseeable future. The big wild card to me over the next 5 years is Mobility and Energy. We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits.
2022 Revenue Forecast:
Model S/X 150k Units @100k = $15B
Model 3/Y 1.5m Units @ 45k = $67B
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B
Mobility Service <= $2B ??
Energy <= $3B ??
A worthwhile market the Class 8 truck could be for Tesla. Revenue cash cow is clearly the Model 3/Y for the foreseeable future. The big wild card to me over the next 5 years is Mobility and Energy. We should have decent shot of $120B in revenue in 2022, $30B in gross profit and $12B in net profits.
2022 Revenue Forecast:
Model S/X 150k Units @100k = $15B
Model 3/Y 1.5m Units @ 45k = $67B
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B
Mobility Service <= $2B ??
Energy <= $3B ??
"
View attachment 263215[/QUOTE]
Mobility Service = I'd say at least $6,5B and growing at more than 50% a year.
Uber hails $6.5 billion in revenue in 2016, still makes large loss
View attachment 263215[/QUOTE]
Mobility Service = I'd say at least $6,5B and growing at more than 50% a year.
Uber hails $6.5 billion in revenue in 2016, still makes large loss
Cross posted from the Model 3 forum...
Should be an interesting day tomorrow...
One week since the first e-mail's went out asking current owners with reservations to configure. There was a rumor in the other thread that Tesla would be sending those e-mail's out in weekly batches. So tomorrow and Wednesday may see some more go out. The poll shows that of the 104 current owners with reservations that 26 (25%) have received the configuration invite. And schonelucht's spreadsheet shows 33 having configured with 6 deferring configuration. Also, in one of the other threads someone mentioned that you typically receive a VIN about 3 weeks before the delivery. So we might start seeing those anytime now too.
It seems like the best visibility into the ramp as of this week will be how many additional owners are invited to configure. Week 1 was 39 total (per schonelucht). Obviously there were many more than 39 invitations sent out. Tesla will now have a good idea of how many cars they will need to build and deliver in 3 weeks, and will adjust the next number of invites sent based on how many cars they believe they can get built the week after the current configured cars get built. If we see another ~40 reported, then the ramp hasn't increased. The total reported over 40 indicates the slope of the early ramp.
Total number that they will deliver in 3 weeks is still the big unknown. That depends on what percentage of total invitees are registered on TMC and posting to this thread. Others have speculated what this number might be based on Model S production and delivery rates, but I don't think those numbers are necessarily valid anymore given the larger brand awareness of Tesla. I think there are more Model 3 reservation holders on the site as a percentage of total reservations now than there were Model S reservation holders. Don't think I would want to hazard even a guess at the total number of invites sent out. But I do believe we can use the newly reported invites to gauge the ramp slope.
And also use the spreadsheet to make sure that Tesla actually delivers the promised cars in 4 weeks as they estimated. I really don't think they would publicly say 4 week delivery unless they were pretty confident they could do it. They have enough egg on their face already given their recent slip due to the battery packaging. And speaking of battery production issues, I haven't seen any speculation in this thread or other Model 3 threads concerning whether we believe that Tesla has the problem resolved. For example, is the new hardware and software in place to automate the battery module production?
Just my $0.02 reading of the tea leaves.
RT
P.S. I would love to see 80 additional entries in the spreadsheet by the end of day Wednesday. That is something I could really sink my teeth into.
Should be an interesting day tomorrow...
One week since the first e-mail's went out asking current owners with reservations to configure. There was a rumor in the other thread that Tesla would be sending those e-mail's out in weekly batches. So tomorrow and Wednesday may see some more go out. The poll shows that of the 104 current owners with reservations that 26 (25%) have received the configuration invite. And schonelucht's spreadsheet shows 33 having configured with 6 deferring configuration. Also, in one of the other threads someone mentioned that you typically receive a VIN about 3 weeks before the delivery. So we might start seeing those anytime now too.
It seems like the best visibility into the ramp as of this week will be how many additional owners are invited to configure. Week 1 was 39 total (per schonelucht). Obviously there were many more than 39 invitations sent out. Tesla will now have a good idea of how many cars they will need to build and deliver in 3 weeks, and will adjust the next number of invites sent based on how many cars they believe they can get built the week after the current configured cars get built. If we see another ~40 reported, then the ramp hasn't increased. The total reported over 40 indicates the slope of the early ramp.
Total number that they will deliver in 3 weeks is still the big unknown. That depends on what percentage of total invitees are registered on TMC and posting to this thread. Others have speculated what this number might be based on Model S production and delivery rates, but I don't think those numbers are necessarily valid anymore given the larger brand awareness of Tesla. I think there are more Model 3 reservation holders on the site as a percentage of total reservations now than there were Model S reservation holders. Don't think I would want to hazard even a guess at the total number of invites sent out. But I do believe we can use the newly reported invites to gauge the ramp slope.
And also use the spreadsheet to make sure that Tesla actually delivers the promised cars in 4 weeks as they estimated. I really don't think they would publicly say 4 week delivery unless they were pretty confident they could do it. They have enough egg on their face already given their recent slip due to the battery packaging. And speaking of battery production issues, I haven't seen any speculation in this thread or other Model 3 threads concerning whether we believe that Tesla has the problem resolved. For example, is the new hardware and software in place to automate the battery module production?
Just my $0.02 reading of the tea leaves.
RT
P.S. I would love to see 80 additional entries in the spreadsheet by the end of day Wednesday. That is something I could really sink my teeth into.
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