2016 MS

[irvineboy]

Hi everyone,

We have been looking at some cars. We recently crossed off the c63s and the m3 (love manual) from our list. Ideally, looking for a used 85D MS to save some money but now leaning more toward ordering new as there aren't any used 85D that are grey MS with black headliner and CF out there. We see a few white or black ones around $80-90k.

Some helpful members have suggested that we wait a month to take delivery of a MS so it can be a 2016 model, instead of a 2015 model. Are there upcoming features that are usually released in Jan/Feb/March, etc that is worth waiting a few months for? I just want to AP and the next gen seats but people were saying there is a AP 2.0 (not sure what is new) and other things that could be coming soon and to wait. What are the release timelines and big upcoming items?

Thanks to everyone who have contributed as we learn about this new technology.

 

[gsxdsm]

Hi everyone,

We have been looking at some cars. We recently crossed off the c63s and the m3 (love manual) from our list. Ideally, looking for a used 85D MS to save some money but now leaning more toward ordering new as there aren't any used 85D that are grey MS with black headliner and CF out there. We see a few white or black ones around $80-90k.

Some helpful members have suggested that we wait a month to take delivery of a MS so it can be a 2016 model, instead of a 2015 model. Are there upcoming features that are usually released in Jan/Feb/March, etc that is worth waiting a few months for? I just want to AP and the next gen seats but people were saying there is a AP 2.0 (not sure what is new) and other things that could be coming soon and to wait. What are the release timelines and big upcoming items?

Thanks to everyone who have contributed as we learn about this new technology.

There is no guessing when or what features will come out. Tesla does not do "model" years with changes like other manufacturers. There are usually 20 changes every week - the majority of these are very small and not noticeable.

It is very unlikely that there will be AP 2.0 hardware released this year. As far as stuff rumored to come soon:

1. Ventilated seats
2. New nose cone design
3. LED headlights
4. New AP sensors (2.0)

No guess when any of those will come - some cars might come off the line in January or it might be June, or they might never come.

As Elon likes to say, the best time to buy a Tesla is "now" because there is always going to be change and trying to time your build won't work - you'll always miss something.

With that being said, there is some slight perceived value in having a 2016 VIN (insurance, registration, resale, etc). You can ask your DS to ensure you have a 2016 VIN and to deliver as soon as possible after.

 

[hpjtv]

Nobody really knows for sure what Tesla's plans are. If you keep the way you are thinking, you may was well wait forever. Yes it sucks if you miss out on a new feature by a few days/weeks/months but that's the price you pay for adopting new technology. The model year will be based on the day the MS is built, not your delivery date.

 

[mikeash]

Literally the only reason to wait for a 2016 model is to have a 6 instead of a 5 in the model year. Some people think that might increase resale value. I personally don't believe it, because anyone buying a used Tesla will surely understand that the year is not very meaningful, but it's possible. In any case, that's the only reason.

There's always the possibility of getting some new feature if you wait. The huge and obvious example is the original autopilot hardware. Every car built after the cutoff date around the middle of September 2014 got the hardware, even people who ordered months earlier. The software could be enabled for something like an extra $500. Very nice benefit, there! But this was in September, and the cars before and after were both 2014s, nothing to do with the "model year."

Another example, which I personally benefitted from, was the addition of a heated steering wheel to the sub-zero weather package. That started rolling out this past winter. It was an odd one, because there was no announcement even after it started showing up, and it was inconsistent for a while. Some people were getting them and some were not. Tesla seemed to be prioritizing regions with colder winters, but it was hard to tell. After a month or so of this, they finally started putting them on every car, and added it as a bullet point to the option. I ordered before they started doing this, and got my car with it, very nice! But again, nothing to do with the model year. Although this did start around the beginning of 2015, it was entirely possible to get a 2015 "model year" with the sub-zero package but no heated steering wheel.

Buying a Tesla is more like buying a computer than buying a car in this respect. There's always something better coming, and it's pretty much impossible to time. If you can resign yourself to having something awesome come out right after you make your purchase, and can just concentrate on being happy with what you got, you'll be better off.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

I'd wait for the 2016. While Tesla people in the know, know that Model Year is irrelevant, the first thing people ask about a car is the year. It's already Nov... so just wait a few weeks and be like... I HAVE A 2016

 

[azax456]

I am in the same boat. Figured why not wait the extra few weeks and know you have the 2016. My DS easily took care of this by setting delivery for early February and confirmed with a production manager at the factory my VIN would be a 2016. Enjoy!

 

[Saghost]

It's all about what matters to you, but as others have said there's no typical release timing or anticipated release dates.

I think it's a fairly safe bet that the ventilated seats which are part of the Model X signature configuration will make there way into the Model S sometime in the next 6 months. If that's important to you, you might want to hold off on ordering until they announce it.

From the collection of various rumors and they way it wasn't mentioned in the X rollout, I actually am expecting a revised set of autopilot sensors with a lot more cameras in the next several months (likely with birdseye backup) - but it's just my guess, and software to do anything more than the current cars can may be quite a bit behind that.

Ultimately what you need to decide is whether the future utility of buying it with any of those features is worth the loss of utility from having to wait instead of driving it for the next several months.

For me, it's an easy choice since I'm waiting to se an X in person before deciding, but as always YMMV.

 

[velociped77]

Buy now! In Switzerland there will be price increase on Nov 27. Maybe in US the same!

 

[dow]

Just to take the contrary side of this for fun... the best time to buy is actually right now. Arguably the very best time to order was September or October. A few reasons:

The statements about Tesla not having model years seem to be true. Having seen a number of different Model S up close I can tell you the variety in little details is surprising, and I can vouch that there is no "annual" model year pattern in them. They are just always tinkering with stuff. No argument with there being some vague slight benefit to a 2016 VIN, but it is hard to believe how little this matters compared to other carmakers until you see it first hand.

The rumor mill around what features are due next strikes me as particularly thin right now. In terms of autopilot I don't expect a "2.0" for another 1-2 years. They just shipped 1.0. The main vendor, MobileEye, has a roadmap for their next-gen hardware that makes it look like production cars with it are years away. A lot of the other rumors are driven by Model X features, where it is speculation (versus Tesla saying anything) when or whether anything will cross over. Meanwhile X deliveries are backlogged deep into 2016, so even if the S pulls any features from it, is that likely to happen much sooner than next summer or fall?

Compare and contrast with the months leading up to this summer, where there were pretty substantial, specific things that were publicly promised by Tesla for the Model S. Some came on time, others were late, but they have all just arrived. The 85 series of cars was just supplanted by the 90 series. Insane was just supplanted by ludicrous.

In terms of unannounced suprises, many were waiting to see what the X would be, and what would come to the S "in sync" with the X release. All those questions have now pretty much been answered.

If you were waiting, the last three months were probably what you were waiting for. It seems like there are fewer significant and/or credible things left to wait for now than in quite some time.

 

[dgilbert0750]

Another reason to buy this year is that the US congress may not extend the electric car tax credit for 2016.

 

[timf]

Another reason to buy this year is that the US congress may not extend the electric car tax credit for 2016.

Is there really a risk of it not existing in 2016? It's not scheduled to expire this year so it extends automatically.

 

[travwill]

Is there really a risk of it not existing in 2016? It's not scheduled to expire this year so it extends automatically.

True, it extends and is valid until the manufacturer produces like 200,000 units that qualify. But they do have it written where it doesn't have to be honored in any future year for all manufacturers if the law is changed/defunded.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Go into your local showroom. An employee can check to see what might be in their inventory that you can get right away. Both new and used.

Many try to time their delivery to maximize the significant tax breaks. Wait till 16 to get a later model year, or push for an earlier deliver to take your tax deduction right away.

 

[irvineboy]

My biggest fear is that I order something, and then a month or two later something drastically new comes out. I wouldn't want to be in a situation where I just bought one right before they release something major like the autopilot with the dual motors. But I understand this can happen all the time which is why am asking if there is a pattern in which Tesla releases their major features like at the end of the year or the beginning of the year etc.

 

[TexasEV]

My biggest fear is that I order something, and then a month or two later something drastically new comes out. I wouldn't want to be in a situation where I just bought one right before they release something major like the autopilot with the dual motors. But I understand this can happen all the time which is why am asking if there is a pattern in which Tesla releases their major features like at the end of the year or the beginning of the year etc.

No, there is no pattern, but there's nothing to fear because if you like the car you order, you'll get what you like. The car is always improving-- you could always be waiting for the next improvement, or you could be driving the car. If I had waited longer in 2013 I could have had parking sensors and folding side mirrors. The improvements never end.

 

[velociped77]

My biggest fear is that I order something, and then a month or two later something drastically new comes out. I wouldn't want to be in a situation where I just bought one right before they release something major like the autopilot with the dual motors. But I understand this can happen all the time which is why am asking if there is a pattern in which Tesla releases their major features like at the end of the year or the beginning of the year etc.

Do it like me. I ordered Oct 7 with preferred delivery in March 2016. The car will be build January so it's a 2016 maybe with new hardware.

 

[bmanke]

One other thing to keep in mind is Tesla might take away something you want. I am a case in point. We waited and waited to order because we wanted an 85 with next-gen seats. (In hindsight should have ordered a P85D but that's another story ) When the next-gen seats finally became available on the 85 we ordered. We are one of the very few regular 85's with next-gen back seats. We are very, very, very happy we ordered when we did as we do not like to look of regular back seat. Especially since they don't match the next-gen fronts.

 

[wdolson]

Hi everyone,

We have been looking at some cars. We recently crossed off the c63s and the m3 (love manual) from our list. Ideally, looking for a used 85D MS to save some money but now leaning more toward ordering new as there aren't any used 85D that are grey MS with black headliner and CF out there. We see a few white or black ones around $80-90k.

Some helpful members have suggested that we wait a month to take delivery of a MS so it can be a 2016 model, instead of a 2015 model. Are there upcoming features that are usually released in Jan/Feb/March, etc that is worth waiting a few months for? I just want to AP and the next gen seats but people were saying there is a AP 2.0 (not sure what is new) and other things that could be coming soon and to wait. What are the release timelines and big upcoming items?

Thanks to everyone who have contributed as we learn about this new technology.

You were able to find any 85Ds for sale used? I've seen some used P85Ds available as people upgrade to Ludicrous mode, but I've only seen one or two used 85Ds come up for sale.

As for when the next upgrade to the Model S comes out, that could be anytime. I've seen speculation ranging from next spring to next fall and possibly later than that. Though i expect some kind of changes to features next year. A lot of people think the Model S is going to get the Model X nosecone, but I strongly doubt it. The Model X nosecone fits with the falcon theme. (Look at a picture from the front, it looks like a bird's face.) They may come up with some other kind of nose cove for the Model S, but I strongly doubt it will be the Model X's. They need to keep the vehicles distinct in some way.

I wrote Tesla asking for cloth next gen seats. Both my SO and I hate leather seats, they're cold in the winter and hot in the summer, but I want the next gen. I got a call a few days later and they told me there have been other request for cloth next gen seats and no promises were made, but it sounded like they might be considering that as an option.

There are stories floating around that Tesla is testing an AP 2.0 using the next generation of InSight's hardware and further rumors Tesla might be the first customer to offer it in their vehicles, but that's just speculation at this point. If they do, it will probably be 6-12 months. Tesla is being very careful fully testing everything related to AP because the liability is so high. They probably won't release the new hardware until the Ap 2.0 software is closer to release so they don't get the complaints they got about 1.0. They also need to watch what AP 1.0 does in the hands of consumers for a while before making any major changes.

If the front door system for the Model X is cheaper and there are no parts supply issues, I could see the Model X door handles making it into the Model S at some point. The auto deploy door handles on the Model S are a cool feature when showing off the car, but they have had problems. They work much better now, but who knows if they are going to become a maintenance problem down the road. I remember retractable headlights were popular on some cars in the 1970s and by the early 1980s you saw a lot of cars with droopy eyes with one headlight stuck in the up position, or only partially retracted. The door handles are just hot zones on the Model X, they never move. That's could be a simpler mechanism in there, though the doors are auto opening, which adds complexity back in.

 

[hpjtv]

Get now, smile and grin sooner. I had the option to change my order to the "D" when it was first available but decided against it for the reason earlier. Regrets not getting the "D"? Maybe a little since every time I take it in for service, they give me one with the specs I like.

 

[Canuck]

I ordered November 7, 2013 and got my car March 7, 2014. Can you even order one now and get it made before the end of the year? (P excluded because I believe they put them closer to the front of the line.)