Yes, agreed there must be an effect not captured by EVTP. Curious that it includes a box for weight, but there was no difference, maybe it's that the route I chose is relatively flat.
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No, Tesla didn't reveal what % of Q4 deliveries were P85Ds, nor what the margin on those cars is. There were a significant number of 'Ds delivered in December, based on reports on this forum.
More precisely, only 8,100 cars produced in Q1 will be delivered in Q1. It appears based on EU sales numbers that Tesla emptied the pipeline at the end of Q4, so there might be significant Q1 production (above the 8,100) that goes back into filling the international supply pipeline.
No, production will be 10k. They need to fill up their pipeline to Europe and Asia again. From the latest shareholder letter :
2014Q4 shareholder letter said:
And remember, they somehow have to get to 55,000 vehicles sold by year end, although some of that will be from Model X. Now that Model X sales numbers have been baked into an official Tesla target, I feel much better about maybe actually receiving mine this year.
I realized another thing that makes the change in cash balance not as bad as it seems. Since they failed to deliver 1,400 cars they are considered finished goods inventory, right? So that is $140 million in cash burn that will only be $50 million next quarter and much more neutral the quarter after that. Further, they can get a warehouse line of credit off of inventory, right? I know a lot of the inventory is loaner cars. So if they target having about $1 billion in cash by the end of the year and spend $1.5 billion for CapEx this will be possible despite neutral cash flow. Then Q1 2016 with the X in full swing we should see strong positive cash flow for a while.
Anyway it has taken me some time but I see how they have a very reasonable plan with some buffer built in so if things go bad they should have enough resources to weather the storm without going back to the market to raise capital. Now if the stock price is high again I would bet they will raise capital as it is almost silly not to considering the staggering amounts of cash they will be spending and the excellent terms they would be able to get.
Of course who knows when the market will start to see this. We might be waiting for the Q1 2016 report before the stock moves much in any direction.
Anyway it has taken me some time but I see how they have a very reasonable plan with some buffer built in so if things go bad they should have enough resources to weather the storm without going back to the market to raise capital. Now if the stock price is high again I would bet they will raise capital as it is almost silly not to considering the staggering amounts of cash they will be spending and the excellent terms they would be able to get.
Of course who knows when the market will start to see this. We might be waiting for the Q1 2016 report before the stock moves much in any direction.
There's a video somewhere (It may be the "How it's Made- Dream Cars: Tesla Model S" I have on my DVR) with a shot of the aluminum chassis and a statement of it weighing just over 400 lbs. If that's accurate, I'd guess body panels might add another couple of hundred lbs?
Not sure what the same design rendered in steel would be. Aluminum is roughly 1/3rd the density of steel, but you may need more of it for a given strength. I've seen it said that he new F-150's are shaving ~700lbs off the weight of the truck by just using aluminum body panels...
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
The F-150 has had an aluminum hood since the late 90s. So not all the body panels have changed. So yes it's a pretty significant weight saving on body panels.
Really good reasoning here, thanks Walter. What was the price difference btw the A8L and phaeton, and what do you think the price difference would be if the MS was entirely steel?
It looks like the difference in price between the two in 2004 was about $5k - but keep in mind, it is different brands as well as potentially different equipment:
2004 Audi A8L vs. BMW 745i, Jaguar XJ8, M-B S430, VW Phaeton - Comparison Tests
http://media.caranddriver.com/files/2004-audi-a8l-vs-bmw-745i-jaguar-xj8-m-b-s430-vw-phaeton70000-luxury-sedans-2.pdf
I'm not going to speculate on the second question, because I really don't have enough information to do so intelligently.
Walter
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