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2014 1 QTR predictions/results
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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- TSLA
Benz
Active Member
I found out that Slovenia had 4 Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014.
Source: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2014/05/08/slovenia-april-2014-vw-golf-takes-the-lead/
And we have not included those in the total for Europe yet.
New total for Europe is: 3,061 + 4 = 3,065.
And the total for Canada of 80 is not correct either.
Tesla Model S sales figures for the year in Canada are as follows:
January: 20
February: 19
March: 119
Canada Total Q1 2014 = 158
Source: http://insideevs.com/plug-electric-...14-chevy-volt-dominates-record-setting-sales/
Europe + Canada = 3,065 + 158 = 3,223
US Q1 2014 Tesla Model S deliveries: 6,457 - 3,223 = 3,234
That means that Europe and Canada combined is almost the same as the US!!!
Benz
Active Member
For me there can only be 1 reason as to why the Tesla Model S delivery numbers in the US are down in Q1 2014. I think that it all has got to do with filling the pipeline to Europe and China. Therefore, I expect to see some good delivery numbers in Europe and China in Q2 2014.
The bottom line is that at least 1,500 US customers could have had their Tesla Model S delivered in March 2014, if Tesla Motors had not decided to fill the pipeline for Europe and China. Geographical expansion comes with a price.
In July 2014 the Tesla factory in Fremont will be closed (not operational) for 10 days. That's what Elon Musk said on the Conference Call. But if that meant 10 working days, than it means two weeks. Anyhow, they are preparing themselves for a second production line. And that is very important for growth. And also Panasonic will start delivering battery cells in higher quantities. Therefore, I expect to see at least 50% more global Tesla Model S deliveries in the second half of 2014 (compared to the first half of 2014).
Note that they sometimes close for a week after a quarter end anyway...I think last year they even did it in July? Does anyone else remember that happening or am I making it up?
Benz
Active Member
I think you are right about that free week in July. And of course they will be doing the work on the second production line during this week too.
Muskol
Member
From my experience in automotive manufacturing a 2 week or so 'shutdown' in the summer is customary to retool and make significant line improvements. It also helps aligning the majority of vacation time requirements for the employees on the line.
The one week shutdown after each quarter seems unreasonable to me, but I can't confirm.
If that were the case, we would have seen more deliveries in April in Europe which doesn't seem to be the case with transit generally being understood 4 weeks. I can't speculate on China however.
Benz
Active Member
I doubt they are lying about production though. 1000 cars are in the pipeline somewhere.
Same feeling. It's reported that ~100 delivered to China in April. I really can't understand why there are 1000 in pipe while so few delivery to both China and EU in April.
I mentioned this on the Google Hangout... looking at some of the delivery threads, I'm guessing that issues with deciding on local charging in new RHD markets is holding things up. Specifically the UMC is either being re-designed or in some cases, dropped.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
At least the initial batch appears to have taken a lot longer. Getting goods through customs can add several weeks in China.
Given the conservative delivery forecast for Q2 I expect that there is still more pipeline filling going on. My guess is that this time it's the RHD cars. They are said to start shipping June (except Australia), so quite a few if then might end up produced but not yet delivered come the end of Q2
Given the conservative delivery forecast for Q2 I expect that there is still more pipeline filling going on. My guess is that this time it's the RHD cars. They are said to start shipping June (except Australia), so quite a few if then might end up produced but not yet delivered come the end of Q2
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
People from the automotive industry say that it is very nasty to import cars to China.
After arrival with a boat, the process in China takes very long (several weeks, longer than to other countries) and depends on local customs.
It may happen that, although a company shipped the exact same model to China before, import issues arise because specifications for imported cars are changed.
Specifications for the cars to be imported may change that quickly, that cars that have already arrived in China, may need to be changed there to meet the new requirements!
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From shareholder's letter. It looks total 2000 cars will be put in the pipe at the end of Q2. After that no pipe absorption to skew the production and delivery. So big ramp up for both production and delivery will start from 2nd half of 2014.
I don't know the reason but last quarter this is just what Tesla said would occur. http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13 Shareholder Letter.pdf
"First quarter production is expected to be about 7,400 vehicles, which is significantly higher than the prior quarter production of 6,587 cars. However, as the number of cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow substantially to support those markets, we plan to deliver approximately 6,400 vehicles in Q1."
Three months ago they said 1,000 vehicles would be in transit... and that's exactly the number we have. Pretty awesome management.
@maoing,
What's your current guess for Model S deliveries to Chinese customers Apr, May, June? Above you said April might be around 100, what about May and June? Is this information discussed in Chinese Tesla discussion sites?
As to your question above of the 1000 cars, I think I have a partial explanation. 2013 Q4 was very unusual because Tesla delivered more cars than what they produced (6892/6587). They sold every car they had. So 2014 Q1 they had to "give back" some of those cars, for example to showrooms and loaners.
I saw in one of the reports that ~100 (acutally 90 something) delivered in April to Beijing and Shanghai customers. I think this number makes sense because it's just the 1st batch delivery. I really don't know the exact number for May and June delivery because it's not open to public for the car registration statistics. But based on my sense from chinese forum the delivery ramp up starting from 2nd half of May and many more will be delivered by end of June. Overall I think Q2 would be still in ramp up stage for China delivery, and Q3/Q4 will be the real exciting time for China market progress.
