Last night before I went to sleep I was thinking about battery swapping from a different perspective, an investor's perspective, and when I woke up I had apperently reached some insights during my sleep. So I thought I'd post it here and see if it makes any sense.
First off, I don't think the real reason for automed battery swapping coming in to existence is to facilitate long distance travel. Let me explain:
In 2020 Tesla will make 500.000 cars. Since the start then, with a gradual ramp-up they will have built not far from 1 million cars. Some of the first cars, from 2013, will have batteries with sometimes quite som mileage on them which will have lead to some degradation. Furthermore the battery technology available in 2020 my make for substantial improvments in energy density and cost, making it possible to either make a very much lighter 100 kWh pack the same size as the current 60/70/85 pack (for the S/X line) or a pack as large and heavy but with let's say 200kWh.
People are going to want to upgrade their batteries. They are not going to want to upgrade only when their own pack has become either too degraded or in some other aspect obsolete (for example a newer pack will give better performance) but a lot of people are going to want to upgrade as soon as a new pack becomes available just to have the latest and best.
Tesla will likely have a monopoly on both production and sales of new packs as well as the swapping market. One could imagine a system where you drive in to an automated swap center and have your car report the status of your battery to the station, perhaps even some testing being done by the station to determine the condition of your pack. The station will then give you a "trade-in" value for your current pack. Then you can pick from packs available to switch to, both pre-owned and new packs, and you pay the price difference to swap.
Tesla can then take the old pack and either condemn/recycle it, perhaps repair/refurbish it or, if it's in good condition, just sell it again as a certified pre-owned pack.
In every step of the process Tesla is taking a percentage and making money. On new batteries of course they are taking margin, but also on the used/pre-owned packs. This will be like a whole eco system or a sort of battery free market. Only it's not free but entirely in Teslas control.
Assuming (ball-park figures) 1 million Teslas on the road in 2021 and the average owner swapping pack every two years that's 500.000 swaps in 2021. 500.000 swaps in 350 days is 1400 swaps per day every day. You can imagine that Tesla would need quite a few swapping stations worldwide just to handle this. And this is assuming swapping is not being used for long distance travel, only for "permanent" swapping (where you pay the full difference on the trade every time).
This could be a very nice way of making money for Tesla, that would come in addition to the CPO car market.
Also, naturally the reason why Elon and Tesla are not talking about this now is that at the current point in time in Teslas's development - still an early stage where a lot of people are on the fence regarding EVs - you don't want to put focus on the unevitable effects of battery degradation and the rapid pace of development and change (like the S85 or even S85D becoming if not obsolete than at least "a generation older" in a few short months with the intro of the 70D). In a couple of years time though, as the market has matured and people are more comfortable with the concepts of EVs and the concept of continual rapid developments (no model years, new models, batteries and techs being introduced in a continous fashion) this won't be an issue.
First off, I don't think the real reason for automed battery swapping coming in to existence is to facilitate long distance travel. Let me explain:
In 2020 Tesla will make 500.000 cars. Since the start then, with a gradual ramp-up they will have built not far from 1 million cars. Some of the first cars, from 2013, will have batteries with sometimes quite som mileage on them which will have lead to some degradation. Furthermore the battery technology available in 2020 my make for substantial improvments in energy density and cost, making it possible to either make a very much lighter 100 kWh pack the same size as the current 60/70/85 pack (for the S/X line) or a pack as large and heavy but with let's say 200kWh.
People are going to want to upgrade their batteries. They are not going to want to upgrade only when their own pack has become either too degraded or in some other aspect obsolete (for example a newer pack will give better performance) but a lot of people are going to want to upgrade as soon as a new pack becomes available just to have the latest and best.
Tesla will likely have a monopoly on both production and sales of new packs as well as the swapping market. One could imagine a system where you drive in to an automated swap center and have your car report the status of your battery to the station, perhaps even some testing being done by the station to determine the condition of your pack. The station will then give you a "trade-in" value for your current pack. Then you can pick from packs available to switch to, both pre-owned and new packs, and you pay the price difference to swap.
Tesla can then take the old pack and either condemn/recycle it, perhaps repair/refurbish it or, if it's in good condition, just sell it again as a certified pre-owned pack.
In every step of the process Tesla is taking a percentage and making money. On new batteries of course they are taking margin, but also on the used/pre-owned packs. This will be like a whole eco system or a sort of battery free market. Only it's not free but entirely in Teslas control.
Assuming (ball-park figures) 1 million Teslas on the road in 2021 and the average owner swapping pack every two years that's 500.000 swaps in 2021. 500.000 swaps in 350 days is 1400 swaps per day every day. You can imagine that Tesla would need quite a few swapping stations worldwide just to handle this. And this is assuming swapping is not being used for long distance travel, only for "permanent" swapping (where you pay the full difference on the trade every time).
This could be a very nice way of making money for Tesla, that would come in addition to the CPO car market.
Also, naturally the reason why Elon and Tesla are not talking about this now is that at the current point in time in Teslas's development - still an early stage where a lot of people are on the fence regarding EVs - you don't want to put focus on the unevitable effects of battery degradation and the rapid pace of development and change (like the S85 or even S85D becoming if not obsolete than at least "a generation older" in a few short months with the intro of the 70D). In a couple of years time though, as the market has matured and people are more comfortable with the concepts of EVs and the concept of continual rapid developments (no model years, new models, batteries and techs being introduced in a continous fashion) this won't be an issue.