navguy12
Active Member
Thank you. He did live a great life and anyone who met him instantly liked him.Condolences. Thoughts and prayers to you and your family. Sounds like he lived a great life.
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Thank you. He did live a great life and anyone who met him instantly liked him.Condolences. Thoughts and prayers to you and your family. Sounds like he lived a great life.
Thank you. He did live a great life and anyone who met him instantly liked him.
We only got to look at a few slides, but there are a lot of problems. It implies that they have pressures of 100 MPa. In the cell? In the manufacturing equipment? That’s like 1000 atmospheres! Anyways, then it says price must come down 5x to 10x, so not commercially viable. And then you have the all important cell specs. They used a charge rate of 10 hours to charge. Ok, what happens if you try to charge it in one hour? Probably worse specs.From Shirley Meng, I know they don't have a research deal with Tesla, but Tesla is probably involved in this battery consortium, maybe by Jeff Dahn
350 Wh/kg cell cycling
Like he always does
When you have paying subscribers it is much better to be conservative at the beginning of the quarter and adjust upwards as the evidence comes in.
If we were back above 300, I'd do it.Cybertruck themed wireless charger now launched
Looks bad to the bone, and is in stock now...
The video is on the Tesla website below, but I couldn't paste just video here. So here is MB's 1 minute take on it.
Link to website.. swipe right for Tesla's video
Wireless Charging Platform https://shop.tesla.com/product/wireless-charging-platform?sku=1799799-00-A
He is data driven.Like he always does
He makes predictions. Meaning he is guessing based on his incomplete data like anyone who makes predictions. He appears to guess low early in the cycle and manages to guess closer and closer to the higher amount closer to the end of Q. It’s a predictable cycle at this point.He is data driven.
Popped you in here:We only got to look at a few slides, but there are a lot of problems. It implies that they have pressures of 100 MPa. In the cell? In the manufacturing equipment? That’s like 1000 atmospheres! Anyways, then it says price must come down 5x to 10x, so not commercially viable. And then you have the all important cell specs. They used a charge rate of 10 hours to charge. Ok, what happens if you try to charge it in one hour? Probably worse specs.
Look, all this battery cell research is nice, but it always has huge honking caveats. The rules of thumb of it taking five years from lab scale to production appears to always hold. Even Tesla is finding the same thing with their dry electrode process. As are the current other advanced battery cell startups.
So maybe we can relegate these battery cell research announcements to the appropriate thread since they will have zero effect on TSLA?
The fact that he generally tends to converge towards the actual number as the quarter moves along means it’s not a guess. Troy is not paid for his start of quarter forecast; he ‘s paid for his adjustments and the reasoning behind them. Troy’s customers are on Patreon not TMC and he can not afford to appear emotionally attached to Tesla in any way. No one would pay for that. He knows what he is doing and it’s working very well for him on patreon.He makes predictions. Meaning he is guessing based on his incomplete data like anyone who makes predictions. He appears to guess low early in the cycle and manages to guess closer and closer to the higher amount closer to the end of Q. It’s a predictable cycle at this point.
The fact that he generally tends to converge towards the actual number as the quarter moves along means it’s not a guess. Troy is not paid for his start of quarter forecast; he ‘s paid for his adjustments and the reasoning behind them. Troy’s customers are on Patreon not TMC and he can not afford to appear emotionally attached to Tesla in any way. No one would pay for that. He knows what he is doing and it’s working very well for him on patreon.
Now tell me again, ELI5, why is it relevant?His numbers are converging towards the actual numbers because the quarter progresses. As it progresses more and more actual sales numbers are known and the estimating part becomes smaller and smaller.
China has weekly insurance registration numbers, so estimating the actual number at the end of the quarter will result in a miss of no more than +/- 5k.
The US is a black box but with the tax credit almost every produced car gets sold, so estimating the Austin production ramp does the trick. Possible miss of no more than +/- 10k.
Finally, in Europe all the sales numbers for the first two months have already been reported and some countries are even reporting live. Possible miss +/- 10k. Troy is now trying to find live updates for the other European countries too:
This will allow the estimating part to become even smaller and the final prediction more correct. His prediction will however become more reporting than estimating.
Like he always does
Besides, you'd only ask later for the ability to ignore the replies to the people who reply to the people you ignore.
This will allow the estimating part to become even smaller and the final prediction more correct. His prediction will however become more reporting than estimating.
Like he should when new info becomes available.
Are you complaining about the weather forecast for the weekend changing during the week, too?
'Man, just bought a rain jacket on Monday, now they say it´ll be nice weather for my hike!!! Can´t they just once keep a consistent forecast?!'