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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nvidia has less exposure to the Chinese market than Tesla and TSMC is adding capacity outside Taiwan. In the event of war in Taiwan, I’d worry more about Tesla. Chinese buyers will reject American brands and in 2024, nothing is more American than Tesla.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Uncle Sam has perfect credit and he is offering 4.5% for 5 years. The customers could all have 800 credit; no bank will give them a better deal than treasury rates
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Warren has missed the boat on lots of things and is still one of the most successful investors in history.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Why is it a sad thing that the nation’s largest retailer leads in any areas of sustainability.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Unfortunately, the law does not work that way Neither do uninsured drivers.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla can only cut margins so much. It still needs cash to fund its growth. There is a lot of capex between now and meaningful FSD revenues.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The starting point in any comparative analysis of robotaxi vs Uber should be gross bookings not revenue. Uber gross bookings from mobility were $19B last quarter. Mobility revenue was $5.5B. About two-thirds of gross bookings were from North America. The gross bookings break down almost equally...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you think about it, it might make more sense for employees at the nearest service center to pick the sites since they are local.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Back in 2018, Musk announced at an earnings call that Tesla would be closing all galleries and moving to a strictly online sales model. It felt impulsive and abrupt. Musk would reverse that decision within a few weeks. This feels the same way to me. I don’t get how you blanket fire an entire...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Inductive chargers also need people to handle the installation. If anything it might even be more work. And yes, I know Tesla mostly uses contractors
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When Musk says Tesla is “worth zero” without autonomy, that is obviously just hyperbole. Today’s valuation is justified based on future cash flow streams from auto, energy and charging. Plenty of Tesla bulls on Wall Street do not have autonomy anywhere in their models. Anyone buying Tesla today...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla could only advance their storage business as fast as cell availability and market readiness allowed. It is only in the last couple of years that those factors have converged to create the environment we see today. Last year, Tesla deployed 14.7 Gwh out of a total 97 Gwh globally. That is...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla’s competition in the stationary storage space are the big, vertically integrated Asian cell manufacturers; BYD, CATL, LG and Samsung. No western entity other than Tesla is going to achieve the scale needed to compete in that space. We should see a shakeout in the next few years. Many Tesla...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The stationary storage business inherently has better operating leverage than the auto business. Operating margin at 200 Gwh scale should not be much less than gross margin. There’s also the recurring stream of service/maintenance and SW revenue that will become very meaningful as the deployed...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Be careful with words like “quasi infinite”.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Competition from CATL and BYD is not compatible with long term “ridiculous” margins. They are far more vertically integrated than Tesla in stationary storage and are used to competing on price. The good news is volumes will explode so much so that even gross margins of 20% will move the needle...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are plenty of use cases that will probably always need a human. Some Uber riders need luggage assistance and request it when booking a ride. That’s obviously not going to happen with robotaxi.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The real question is what the unit economics of a fully autonomous, electric ride sharing network will be ?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You do have to wonder why alphabet cut waymo loose if it is on the verge of scaling robotaxi ? Today’s $30B valuation is not so impressive given at one point Waymo was valued as high as $200B. Tesla still has the inside track on scaling autonomy. It’s just going to be a lot more painful than...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Waymo is currently the yardstick for autonomy. Can their approach scale ? No. Commercially it’s probably a dead end. But the fact still remains that Tesla would have to reduce disengagements by an order of magnitude to match waymo.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You get to vote one share. Not exactly going to move the needle.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It looks like a good sign. He knows he can’t just call into this one. Hopefully he”ll take it seriously enough to prep
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a call like no other in Tesla’s history. All the indications are that Tesla has made a hard pivot to autonomy. Wall Street would want to know exactly what that means for the legacy auto business. In my opinion, Tessa would better off just telling the truth; let investors know if next gen...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If they give a non answer to number 5, the stock is heading south. Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Osborning across price points tends to be exaggerated. Model S/X sales did not crater between model 3 reveal and launch. I “ve seen no evidence nextgen holdouts are affecting model 3/Y sales. Osborning because of model updates or new body types on the same platform is much more common. As soon...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No western company is trying to compete at the $10k price point. Japanese and Korean companies are not trying to compete there either. There is a pretty significant difference between $10k and $25k. BYD already has BEVs that serve the $25k price point in China. That is the competition that...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Twenty years ago, the idea of $1000 cell phones finding a mass market was unthinkable. Sure, it helps that the carriers shield their customers from the upfront cost but it’s still a lot of money. If FSD delivers the utility, it will sell for more than $99 a month. Tesla can offer reduced...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s rarely that simple. Many times the person making the decisions does not know the employees very well. Often times, the older and more expensive employees get the shaft. You can be a stellar performer but be deemed not as critical as someone who is not as high performing.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If there was ever an earnings call that Elon needs to prep for this is the one. Unfortunately it is not in his nature. He “ll say something stupid like “automomy margins are irrelevant” and that will be the headline the day after
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla without autonomy is not worth a whole lot more than today’s price.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Robotaxis are useful in every scenario that an Uber is useful.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Elon needs to be able to explain his vision for robotaxis without crapping all over the existing business. No one needs to hear Tesla is worth zero without autonomy or that auto margins don’t matter or gen3 is irrelevant. That is my biggest fear for the robotaxi event; that the biggest...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We”ll get something roadmap-ish which will probably be revamped within a year. At this point, you either trust Elon or you don’t.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even with the IRA, I doubt Tesla will eke out much of a cost advantage over CATL and BYD.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You don’t “need” the unboxed line to build the robotaxi. A regular line would build it even if it’s not as efficient. Elon may very well have decided that speed to market trumps efficiency. If you believe like he does that Tesla is worth zero without FSD, everything that is happening makes...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Gwynn Shotwell is an engineer by training and she certainly started out her career doing engineering.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No one remotely knowledgeable about satellite communications would think that starlink would have a problem working in cars. Satellite terminals work on aircraft. GM cars have had onstar for decades. Starlink is the densest satellite network ever built. It can keep up a high speed link in the...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I suggest you look up videos of what IEDs did to MRAPs in Iraq or what drones are doing to tanks in Ukraine. The cybertruck is a civilian vehicle. It wouldn’t last two seconds on the battlefield
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Speaking of the zoox robotaxi, it is currently running an autonomous shuttle service between zoox offices in Foster city CA. I think the ideal form factor for a robotaxi would look something like that. They appear to have the manufacturing part down some but are going down the same Lidar dead...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I seriously doubt they’ve been working on it continuously for a decade. It’s not that hard a problem once the car parks itself in the right place. It’s probably been solved engineering wise a long time ago. Tesla has to decide if it’s the approach they want to take.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The truth lies somewhere between Reuters and Musk. I seriously doubt Reuters made this story up completely out of thin air and I do not completely believe Musk’s non specific denial. Something has fundamentally changed about the program. If I had to guess, Reuter’s sources are in Asia and...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla would never launch a service that had an accident every 10,000 miles. That’s way worse than the average driver.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Troy did very well. I never understood the anti-Troy vibe on this forum. For anyone that truly believes in the long term outcome, this is a buying opportunity.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How about they make a billion in revenue first ?
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They ‘re not even set up to collect the data. A serious competitor could collect a million video clips one year after reaching the starting line. They are all several years from that.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No auto company is catching up to Tesla in self driving; technologically or commercially. Nvidia and Google will probably eventually establish some kind of foothold and set up an iOS/Android style duopoly with Tesla being iOS. Tesla can forestall that some by licensing its software. Tesla has a...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are only so many people willing to beta test self driving software and they already own Teslas.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It does not have to increase revenue by much initially. The very notion that this is becoming a product with appeal outside the Tesla/tech enthusiast community is a big deal. Once regular people start signing up for subscriptions and raving about the product, Wall street will notice. They love...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The current “production line” is really simple because the current semi is hand assembled. There is a reason Tesla has never shown it to the public. The volume production line will not be simple.
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Has Tesla ever said that they will offer full autonomy outside of a company owned or company operated fleet ? I think what you are describing - privately owned vehicles in full autonomous mode in private operation - is decades away. Sure an individual can choose to sleep while on FSD but I don’t...