The volume is so high I don't see MM's really having much of a choice unless the volume drastically reduces this afternoon and this week
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I closed my underwater cc's and +LEAPS. Banking on this being nothing more than a short squeeze. Will look for opportunities to buy those LEAPS back after the china FSD euphoria has worn off.
after 88 days, tsla is finally above the upper-BB
the most consecutive days tsla closed above the upper-BB is 8 (during the 2021 boom)
good news for CC holders: MM doesn't like it if TSLA closes above the upper-BB
bad news for CC holders: upper-BB is trending up
the most consecutive days tsla closed above the upper-BB is 8 (during the 2021 boom)
good news for CC holders: MM doesn't like it if TSLA closes above the upper-BB
bad news for CC holders: upper-BB is trending up
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Well some people have lost confidence in Tesla and sold their positions. Although fsd discussions started going off tangent for this options thread, in hindsight it was certainly a material risk for bearish option trades that erupted over the weekend.
A perk as a moderator is that we can access all deleted posts. Going back to January 1st I see that no posts about FSD written by you were deleted. Only a post about racism and posts in a CT discussion which turned nasty (not your fault).
Major FSD developments can be discussed in this thread, no doubt about it, but it’s no place for back and forth about technical details.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Don't assume anything .... some 2018 AP report can negatively affect sentiment.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not all FUD.
As even-headed investors we should understand there is a lot of uncertainty with FSD. That uncertainty will certainly be expressed by many - and ofcourse there will be those who believe FSD will definitely happen in the next few months and those who think FSD certainly won't happen at all.
By dismissing all contrary opinion to our own as FUD we run the risk of being blindsided by reality.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Based on this if we closed above upper BB then tomorrow should be a green day based on historical stat. Average is 4.71 days above.
196 million shared traded with 2hrs to go.
jeewee3000
Active Member
The flow is real. But it will pull back before we go to $250.
Trying to time the pull back with the expiration of my $190 cc's. (Currently for next week, I will probably roll them week by week until I see a pullback.)
Trying to time the pull back with the expiration of my $190 cc's. (Currently for next week, I will probably roll them week by week until I see a pullback.)
This must be every market maker/hedge fund's dream with a stock like TSLA. FSD is the catalyst that allows you to pump every time there is positive reviews about a new release and dump it every time an FSD car hits a curb
For call option sellers days like this can be very painful, as some are now experiencing (it could also have been me). Some from the ‘other thread’ are smiling about that pain, which is their right.
They don’t like the opportunism here and swear allegiance to the HODL mantra. Their tenacity could be rewarded bigly in the future.
But I and many of us already had that reward in 2019 and 2020. After those fat years option selling has given us the possibility to keep on earning money instead of (only) having to watch for a painfully long three years how TSLA kept going down. I made more on selling options during those three years than I would have if I had only held stock and the SP would have doubled from 400 to 800. That’s a much better position to be in than the people seeing their shares go down from 400 and now being happy with a move from 170 to 195.
I do hope though that one day their patience and perseverance will be rewarded too.
They don’t like the opportunism here and swear allegiance to the HODL mantra. Their tenacity could be rewarded bigly in the future.
But I and many of us already had that reward in 2019 and 2020. After those fat years option selling has given us the possibility to keep on earning money instead of (only) having to watch for a painfully long three years how TSLA kept going down. I made more on selling options during those three years than I would have if I had only held stock and the SP would have doubled from 400 to 800. That’s a much better position to be in than the people seeing their shares go down from 400 and now being happy with a move from 170 to 195.
I do hope though that one day their patience and perseverance will be rewarded too.
They love to promote the HOLD strategy while ignoring that life/stuff happens that requires cash/capital. Sure it's great to HODL without any care in the world for as long as it takes for the stock to go up to X amount or rebound from a multiyear sell off.
Me, I'm happy to set the parameters of when/how I cash out of TSLA while making guaranteed income in the meantime
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A hedgies wet dream and a potential nightmare for short term options traders/sellers. The stress some of you guys that are heavily in the weekly/monthlies is not something I envy at all.This must be every market maker/hedge fund's dream with a stock like TSLA. FSD is the catalyst that allows you to pump every time there is positive reviews about a new release and dump it every time an FSD car hits a curb
I fully expect Wall St to use FSD progress/catalyst to push/drop the stock in dramatic ways over the next year or so
jeewee3000
Active Member
Indeed. Also, the HODLers ignore that you can be long term bullish AND make money on downturns (or hedge against them).
The two things I picked up from @Yoona are:
1) don't lose capital
2) small steps >>> large steps
(Still working on number one, since I keep core TSLA shares. But I have managed to lose less when TSLA drops and gain more when TSLA rises by selling cc's and/or puts at certain times. These are small steps that increase my share count bit by bit, which will (I hope) reward me when TSLA reaches $1500 or whatever superbull valuation is being thrown around.)
To me it looks like real resistance will be closer to $220 the way it is taking shape.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Random thoughts on ITM CC management.
Say I'm short 10x 190cc's for next week and they're looking to end up ITM. We've discussed many times how to deal with this. One can roll out in time for credit, roll up in strike (and out in time) for breakeven, even further up in strike for a debit, etc.
In the past I sometimes rolled 9 of the 10 one week out to the same strike, using the credit received to increase the strike price of the remaining CC. However, when ATM it seems one can tweak this last step and just simply (example, but possible with current premiums):
BTC 10x 5/3 -190cc
STO 9x 5/10 -190cc
The larger the pool of cc's you have open, the more you can "downsize" the position.
Anyone have any experience managing like so? I'm guessing @Max Plaid might. Any dangers I should be considering?
It does feel like a bad trade since I throw away premium on closing ITM cc's and I lose my hedge for when things reverse. This strategy only seems worth it if SP keeps climbing.
But then I wonder if I'm not better off just rolling for strike improvement.
Say I'm short 10x 190cc's for next week and they're looking to end up ITM. We've discussed many times how to deal with this. One can roll out in time for credit, roll up in strike (and out in time) for breakeven, even further up in strike for a debit, etc.
In the past I sometimes rolled 9 of the 10 one week out to the same strike, using the credit received to increase the strike price of the remaining CC. However, when ATM it seems one can tweak this last step and just simply (example, but possible with current premiums):
BTC 10x 5/3 -190cc
STO 9x 5/10 -190cc
The larger the pool of cc's you have open, the more you can "downsize" the position.
Anyone have any experience managing like so? I'm guessing @Max Plaid might. Any dangers I should be considering?
It does feel like a bad trade since I throw away premium on closing ITM cc's and I lose my hedge for when things reverse. This strategy only seems worth it if SP keeps climbing.
But then I wonder if I'm not better off just rolling for strike improvement.
I do understand the idea behind HODL (Hold On for Dear Life), but I really don't like the term. For me, baked into that term, is an implicit awareness that the person isn't actually a long term investor in the business. Rather they think that a long term investment might be a good idea, but they're going to be re-evaluating that investment with shifts in the wind and trying constantly to persuade themselves to hang on. Diamond hands is another expression of this idea.
For me at least, buy and hold was easy. I had a 10+ investment horizon and thesis with a reasonably good likelihood that I would just hold until my estate needed to figure out where the shares went to. That's buy and hold to me. I was keeping track of goings on at the company, but it was all big picture stuff answering the question regarding whether or not the company was maintaining its technology lead, business lead. Is the moat getting bigger or smaller?
Probably the key to buy and hold for me - it might be a 10+ year investment horizon, but also built into that is that it wouldn't be hard to picture just owning the shares until you die (which for me is hopefully 40+ years
).About annually I made a point of at least thinking about the 10+ year horizon, with the answer always being "yup - still 10+ years". It still is 10+ years for me today, 11 years later, though I'm keeping a particularly close eye on the next generation car intent, as that could change things.
My needs changed significantly a few years back. I am shifting from full accumulation over to drawing down the pile. I have a long time for the pile to cover so really more like reaching cruising altitude right now. Simply holding doesn't work for me, though if I were better at selling shares to buy food and pay the mortgage then it probably would. And besides I enjoy doing this.
A balanced strategy is often the best. I would like to earn enough to cover living expenses in the down years, and taxes in the up years.
I am a HODLer at heart, but I recognize that being passive in managing my portfolio can make me oblivious to shorter term indicators, especially on my minor holdings.
...but I also acknowledge that my sleep is much better when I am not playing options.
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