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That was clearly a 5d chess move.

Strange action for sure but we did have a 6.5% day so maybe just profit taking. Usually these downgrades etc go to their clients first so that’s what I meant by someone has news. Maybe nothing and it’s just profit taking.

It got rejected really hard at 187.42 in AH and it’s been bleeding ever since. Nice call to watch for that level tomorrow and of course if 180 can hold. The selloff after hours almost feels like somebody has news, may be a downgrade by a major firm?

IMO it’s better to stay away from earnings. Sure the stock could be north of 1000$ but it could also do the opposite. If you already have stock or looking to get in at that price I get it but it’s a gamble. Do a spread just to be safe?

Or maybe the running voting results were leaked to some institutions(no way :)). That was some serious volume at 180 that's for sure. Let's see if there's a day two.

I think we are in a precarious position because 1. TSLA seems broken technically trading below 50 SMA and not showing any signs of bounce for the past 4 hours. 2. Macros seems to heading into major resistance. The uncertainty of the vote will make things worse for the stock. We will also start...

I just have this strange feeling about the next month until the shareholder vote results are announced. Elon has been very actively asking shareholders to vote. I mean he clearly deserves the money but is it possible he is waiting for voting to be closed to announce that he in fact is all in...

Is it Friday yet?

Yes but in general this is a net positive for Tesla that he seems to caring about it more. Hopefully the free speech addiction is wearing off and he is hyper focused on how to commercialize FSD. I still think the “new models” language in the ER was nonsense but clearly the moves he is making are...

If you have a chance to get out break even with SMCI I think you should seriously consider that. Looks like you hedged your -Ps very well but there no know what the near term bottom of thai stock is. I guess your losses would be capped since you have the +ps to go with it? NVDA OTOH is a much...

This must be every market maker/hedge fund's dream with a stock like TSLA. FSD is the catalyst that allows you to pump every time there is positive reviews about a new release and dump it every time an FSD car hits a curb :)

15 million shares traded in pre market :rolleyes: . That is impressive.

I wonder if it's the market trying not to miss an NVDA like run so in some ways this is front running of Tesla's future earnings potential. That plus the fact TSLA is down so much with heavy short interest is likely creating a Hertz type squeeze. Nothing the market does has to make sense though :)

It seems like sentiment is changing really fast. Overnight trading is mostly retail so while it’s good to see the stock up we shall what it does in pre market. TSLA 50day SMA is around 175/176. For me closing above this key level is a signal to go long.

Yes but the fundamentals supported it. Times are very different. Now if interest rates were to run come down sharply that could help change the narrative around fundamentals.

lol so I thought I'd sold 15X May 17 180 calls. It turns out I actually bought them :cool:

If you feel the need to hedge buy some TSLT(2X TSLA) or even just TSLA assuming you have the margin/cash available.

We haven't heard from Elon yet so let's not celebrate too early lol.

I think what @bmd00 posted earlier today applies very well to your situation. IMO you are feeling FOMO. I think it's ok to miss out on a 10 to 15% gain if you are worried about getting in and the price dropping further. 1. Think about diversifying, we are all so knee deep in Tesla that...

Priceless lol. That model 3 pump might have been the high for today. Let's see where we finish in regular market trading.

I'm eyeing 135$ puts 2 weeks out so May 10th expiry. You are paying 1$ in extra premium per week which I think is worth it.

I think you answered your own question. The stock hasn't crashed for the same reason it did not crash after P&D numbers. There were too many people betting on puts one or 2 weeks out and they had to keep it flat to kill those puts. I converted my long puts into calendar spread yesterday...

I would be shocked if he does not talk about a positive take rate increase. FSD take rate is exceeding expectations but I'm not going to provide any hard numbers. Wall street is not going to believe him. I don't even think we need to wait for the call for the fireworks, the biggest one for me...

They are never going to make it that easy, the stock will continue to ping pong until ER tomorrow and then during the call it will ping pong 10x faster :). The sounds bites on this one should be epic. Let's go Elon.

Yes, two weeks.

I’m fully hedged with May 2024 150 puts which I got in at a very good price. At some point before ER I want to convert these into a calendar spread by selling puts for 80 or 90 strike price perhaps one year out especially with IV now spiking. In case of a crash I will let go my remaining...

Nasdaq futures are up but TSLA, in overnight trading, is trading in the 143s. Who needs earnings when we get news every day. I think Elon will have a lot of export do on the earnings call. I’m personally getting ready for popcorn and sound bites. Anybody know when we will see a dead cat...

Between the low P&D numbers and high AI infrastructure spend I feel like the FCF number will shock everyone. I don’t think the street cares about EPS for this quarter.

The love affair with SMCI continues :). Seriously though why bother going naked on a volatile stock like SMCI which trades with 4-5 dollar spread. Your strategy works except if there is some news after market hours. A stock split or some pre announcement of earnings or something else could...

Here is how I’m anticipating the earnings call will go: Martin: Welcome…Elon would like to say a few words Elon: Let me quickly answer the most important question that’s on investors mind. We are going balls to the wall on Robotaxi. Nothing else matters. Stock drops instantly and TSLA...

I don’t understand this guy who’s so heavily invested in Tesla but doesn’t want to give the man his well earned money. How does he think his investment will grow if Elon is not happy.

Looks like a possible limit down scenario, crazy world we all live in. 😞

I think this is a very good point and something I was going to mention too. FSD 12.3 was apparently a 2023 build so who’s to say they are not already close to a robotaxi build. At this point i think the price action is getting a bit silly and that is why im planning to close all my long puts...

Any time major indices lose their 50 day SMA we see this. Earnings do not seem to matter. We lost 50 day SMA on QQQ a few days ago and we have been struggling to sustain any kind of rally or DCB. It felt like TSLA was going to put in a DCB late evening but the selling pressure was intense...

If this is about robotaxis how do you explain your key policy guy Rohan leaving the company? Or its possible Rohan had a disagreement with Elon about the timing of Robotaxi deployment and was let go, of course only to spend time with family!

Everything is a positive 🙄. I imagine Elon sent out his thoughts to all the leaders about the company’s targets/goals and gave the option of leaving the company if they did not agree with the vision. Or Elon just gave them no choice and forced a resignation from them for not meeting their...

I suggest you look into what happened to TSLA when Zack "resigned" from Tesla. Data doesn't lie. FYI, Zack "resigned" on Aug 7 2023

The timing of these layoffs or resignations confirms that Q1 ER is going to be a really bad one. All it takes for TSLA to break the 160 level is one big fund liquidating their position and looks like we might have the catalyst to make that happen.

IV :rolleyes:

Damn, sure sounds like you are looking for buyers :). Just kidding… Let the dust settle, there is no reason to buy any LEAPS now. Wait for ER either for a better price or confirmation of breakout.

Yep. And this time I was hedged. Now that the number is out I feel like we go below 160$ before ER.

The only problem is when there is such a strong confirmation bias you tend to overlook/misread the data that's in front of you.

Good weekend fun. Looks like he put all his Uber savings into 220$ calls. Delivery numbers now include used cars guys lol.

Agreed. Even if we are to take off META style it will not happen until earnings. Same. I’ve had 12.3.2.1 for a couple of days now and overall it is very confident and has solved some of my major problems. It still hesitates for stop signs and very cautious in parking lots but that’s not...

Yes, I'm also saying the same thing.

I don't disagree but just failing to understand how a big upside move is remotely possible. The baseline on expectations will not be clear until ER. All indications are that this will be a sub 420K delivery number. Even if the energy numbers are good we will not hear any commentary about margins...

Very interesting. Maybe the plan is to pull TSLA after P&D numbers and then run it up. It makes no sense to be betting on the bullish side but I guess it doesn't matter what retail thinks. I'm struggling to see how the numbers can be anywhere close to a surprise. Got a good price on the 04/05...

IMO people are getting too excited about FSD 12.3. I plan to use a wait and see approach, not in any rush to deploy cash. Seems like this 1 month free FSD trial is the last demand lever Elon is using to help improve numbers. It is also a very risky approach based on the reviews I have read. Sure...

What gap up? :( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/tesla-trims-output-of-cars-in-china-amid-slower-ev-sales-growth