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Well, I went with the groupthink on NVDA and closed most of my -P today for next week and beyond. I don't really think that is the right call, but it is too easy to get overly optimistic and make mistakes on the other side. I do think NVDA needs consolidation, but I think it will be above $1250.

Tesla China down 18k units in Q2 to-date from 2023. Tesla China wholesale figures rise 16.74% to 72,573 units in May 2024

They wouldn't sit in a warehouse; they would be sold to another company in trade for later slots.

It still gave those to other Musk-owned companies a competitive advantage given scarcity. Not 100% dirty, but not 100% clean. There was "value" transferred to X and xAI; did they pay for that value?

Not to give financial advice or anything, but selling puts laddered out at least gives you a $50 discount on current prices. When you get assigned take the shares and be happy for your discount. Try not to get everything assigned at once, or at the same strike in the hopes of not everything...

I'm guilty of holding from $400 when I knew I needed to sell, but was concerned about paying the taxes on it; my basis was under $25. Realizing the gain would have made a huge hit on my working assets, so I had to ask myself if losing out on ~40% of the value to pay a tax bill was worth it...

"some people would prefer a recession..." Um... I think I have a commentary about that and the Fed being out of touch. I appreciate that the Fed's primary directive is essentially efficient deployment of capital, but I think they are failing to see the reality in front of them.

I want to believe. I really do. What I have conviction in is that inventory has been consumed, and production has been reduced. Hopefully that is enough to get people excited about the stock again. For now though I am going to focus on caution though.

OT question, but what tools are people using for stock news, data and visualization? I'm stuck in the stone age with ETrade and Apple Stocks as my primary tools on my iPad, and it really is disappointing, even if it is adequate for the type of trading I am doing.

Interesting that the AI is that bearish. Would love to understand the training data that leads it to that conclusion; there is always something to be learned from alternative outlooks.

Not much effort... but sometimes more risk than we appreciate. I have 6 or 7 -P for next week in NVDA at $1050-1100. I have cash to cover them and still am in an acquiring mode... but it is tempting to de-risk the lower strikes to maintain longer term flexibility in writing puts. The split...

YoY China domestic sales are up 2-3k, but exports have dropped off significantly. I don't follow Shanghai religiously, but production has been reduced from Q1. Berlin and Austin production is also down from Q1. I'm haven't found any reasonable sources on Fremont. Yes, production is now...

The comps are going to be bad. They were on a trend towards a ~$4B drop in gross revenue; with Elon back into politics I can easily see another $1B hit to June. Making any of those business units capable of generating more than $2B revenue is going to be a challenge. The stock is...

I think the picture is pretty clear and you summarized it perfectly. The next six weeks are not going to be good for the stock. Who knows after that.

I think both of those are just noise. The downside will come when the press starts projecting Q2 P&D. Inventory seems way down, but production hasn't really picked back up the way I had expected (in Austin). I think Tesla overcorrected. I see us up on Monday with a drop mid-week... but it is not...

I think you need to carefully draw a payout diagram of this; in almost all cases I can come up with you just increase risk/exposure. It might also help to insert theoretical prices and strikes for what you are thinking.

I wonder just how much premium you would need to make a short strangle a smart move. I've done them before, but not intentionally-- open one leg and after sufficient movement OTM open the other leg. Sometimes it just isn't logical to close them

Seems like a heavy lift for the next two months to get there. From memory it usually moves most one side or the other, but not both. So, if up going in likely flat or down coming out of the split. If it goes down before then new buyers come in expecting upside. For NVDA I am still writing...

Dell doesn't have a winning short-term strategy. I think it has further to fall.

He isn't completely wrong, but not the right time to say it.

I would expect NVDA to be considered a hedge against that, at least after early session weakness tomorrow. But, my current floor for tomorrow is 1050. I will be excited to write puts for 14DTE there.

Is there any information you crave or knowledge you want the rest of the world/market to understand that would push it up? Same really goes for anyone with a bullish thesis. My current checklist for upward movement from here is a bit too negative right now so I will hold back. The most...

They cut at least 30% of the quarter's production in Austin for the quarter. Haven't been watching Berlin, but I expect there was a minor cut there too. Similar rumors were going around about Shanghai, but too hard to read for sure. So I am guessing total production was cut 50-85k vehicles for...

I got an "invite" for the foundation series today. My Y is almost 4 years old now... and I need to get it re-wrapped ($6k). I'd be "saving money" if I went ahead and bought one, right? ;)

The chart looks a lot different if you focus on 2022-2026. In other words, how representative is the company between 2020 and 2022 relative to 2024-2026/8? Expecting 20-22 to repeat is currently a stretch of the imagination... barring a huge change in the company. Alternately, where does...

It is all odd for sure. Sold about 35% of my TSLA stake today. I feel like the support levels won't really create resistance until ~150. Maybe it is just emotional thinking, but if the institutional holders aren't in support of the Board it seems like there is a challenge finding buyers. On...

Based on the noise here we are about in for a capitulation on TSLA. Interesting that it seems out of line with broader consensus. Opportunity... but which direction?

AAPL in the days of the iPod, Microsoft before them. Philip Morris in the ~70's, Monsanto in the 80's. All go through cycles, but it is less rare than people make it out to be. Nvidia has risks for sure, and we are in the middle stage of their current cycle. I doubt we will see 8x growth from...

I feel it is justified in the fundamentals. I have a 6-12 month horizon on NVDA right now; I wouldn't play it if focused solely on 7-30 DTE options. Blackwell should be addative to revenue and profit and not cannibalizing-- the market is significantly under-supplied in the GPUs currently as more...

On NVDA, I see room for 1200-1250, but it really feels overbought right now. Sold some -P1100 today for 6/14. Happy to acquire, happy for them to expire.

Nope. You need the edge cases. Synthetic data has the challenge of not being reliable; you can create a level of inbreeding that just produces garbage. Even things like trying to normalize data from Tesla's SX3Y fleet to the CT (treating camera data as 360° view) is very risky due to...

Honestly I am not finding any that work for me right now. The idea is essentially to sell near-the-money covered calls; I would prefer to sell them for June right now, but premiums are just too low. August -CC between 175 and 200 looks like my best bet right now, but I would like to see a bit...

This is based on my personal observations from obsessively watching drone footage. There is about 50-75% more activity with production now than there was when they hit 1k. There are a few variables that can't be factored out reliably on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis, but the averages seem...

Based on drone footage though it is pretty clear they are averaging well over 1k/week, although there was a bit of a reduction with the accelerator pedal issue. I don't think the CT deliveries will be material for another quarter though; 12 vs 24k is still a nothingburger. So stay out until...

Tesla has the infrastructure to build 600k/quarter, but to sell that many cars they need to be doing well in all markets. I don't think 500k is enough to rebuild faith; it can be explained away too easily after significant production cuts. Austin right now is maybe building 2,000Y a week...

When you have an edge and the broader market doesn't get it then it is a great reason to buy. I don't see any outcome of the shareholder vote in either direction or any measure causing material risk, and honestly I don't see the market thinking it does either... so no edge there. If one was...

I think we are range-bound between 170 and 200 until we get P&D numbers in the 600k range. I think 8/8 might give a little bump over that for a day or two, but that is about it. I know this thread isn't about fundamentals, but Tesla is trading at a PE of 46 with no signs of earnings growth...

If you have 90% confidence in the range and the volatility then it is easy to play; you just need to time the exit transactions. For me I have about 60% confidence in the range, and 50% confidence in the volatility... and maybe 30% confidence in the timeline. I view risk/reward differently...

Sure, it is plausible, maybe even likely. What is more likely is that the board comes up with an alternative compensation plan that is slightly more transparent and addresses shareholder concerns. I think what will really throw Elon into a tailspin is actually rejection of the reincorporation...

OR? I thought this thread is all about 160 AND 230 next week! ;)

The way I see some more pure AI plays moving I doubt that is the catalyst. To me I think we are in for a period of higher volatility for TSLA while some issues shake out. Pretty confident in NVDA >1100; sold a handful of -P1100 for 6/14, and I think some -P1150 elsewhere in June. I never bet...

Does Belgium have a more sane car sales system than the US? As in you have a sticker price, but what you pay comes down to your negotiating skills and the particular dealer you go to? Here the price transparency with Tesla (even if the price is volatile) is generally a breath of fresh air for...

Yeah... never liked roulette! Definitely need a careful strategy to play it.

Decided to start playing with SMCI. At a 68% IV it is a little easier to wheel, but much less clear trends. Trying to figure out some good entry points.

Wow, NVDA is now lower IV than TSLA. Time for a strategy shift.

Kind of a wierd question in light of the 10:1 NVDA split, but does IV reduce given a lower absolute share price? I know it is hard to remove all the externalities, but I assume (split adjusted) option volume will drop on NVDA afterwards. Maybe this is offset by other factors, but I would...

I'd actually say a log chart is the only way to look at something with an exponential growth rate component; it is disengenuous to look at linear charts and think they tell a full story. I prefer looking at the derrivatives more directly, but that is more personal taste.

I haven't listened yet, but look forward to it. Most of what you are listing though I already had priced into my thesis. From just a fundamentals perspective it starts to get expensive soon IMO. Still happy to accumulate and still happy to trade volatility and doubters though.

Boy, I must be the only one disappointed with NVDA earnings based on AH movement. Maybe disappointed isn't the right word, but the move is more than I expected for the earnings.

I'd love to figure out a way to do a second order analysis of IV and price delta to show independent sentiment data. One can see a pattern here in how discussions move and there seems to be a correlation that can be safely tapped. It was clear something was happening on Monday that signaled an...