Yes I mentioned further back that it will cost Tesla billion$ in lawsuits if they can’t do or, more likely, so many years have passed that they not have been able to provide it in a ‘reasonable time’
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Will Tesla be able to deliver FSD with HW3.0 and current Model 3 sensor suite, ever?
- Thread starter SergeyUser
- Start date
https://www.tesla.com/sites/tesla/files/curatedmedia/the_future_of_autopilot.mp4
The Future of Autopilot
All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver.
This is Tesla's claim. But, somehow, we are persuading ourselves that Tesla does not have the hardware contrary to Tesla's claim.
Not everyone is interested in FSD. Anyone who bought the vehicle hoping to take advantage of the promise of FSD cannot make that claim on behalf of others who are not interested in FSD. Anyone who feels deceived can take their claim to the courts. Free world.
The Future of Autopilot
All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver.
This is Tesla's claim. But, somehow, we are persuading ourselves that Tesla does not have the hardware contrary to Tesla's claim.
Not everyone is interested in FSD. Anyone who bought the vehicle hoping to take advantage of the promise of FSD cannot make that claim on behalf of others who are not interested in FSD. Anyone who feels deceived can take their claim to the courts. Free world.
Let me clarify. No one will get their full car price back, this is obvious. What I'm saying is that ALL Tesla buyers will be eligible for some form of compensation, not just FSD buyers.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Apparently not to everyone... NuclearFusion seems sure (against all logic, sense, history, and basic fundamentals of law) that he'll get a full refund.
Possibly. On the other hand in the EAP lawsuit only those who paid for eap got anything.
If non-buyers did get anything I'd expect it to be a very tiny amount
That's not actually what the term lemon means, legally.
Like, even a little.
Anyway, here's some actual math on how it'd probably work-
So there's 2 groups here.
Group 1- people who were promised (at least) L4 driving.
That's people who bought FSD before the feb/march 2019 change.
From launch of FSD as a sold feature to the Feb/March 2019 feature description change, Tesla sold roughly 400,000 cars.
Take rate on FSD, back when EAP was available, was lower than it is today- most optimistic estimates were in the 25-30% range, let's say 30% for this discussion.
That's 120k cars, at $3000 each- or 360 million bucks.
That's their liability to those customers (call it 400 mil since some fraction will have bought later at the higher 4k post-delivery price)
They MIGHT be able to try and argue they only owe those folks a partial refund since they're now (and will presumably continue to) deliver SOME actual features that require FSD (stoplights, maybe some L2 city autosteer) but I think that's a bit tougher argument to get away with than group 2.
Group 2- people who bought post feb/march 2019 change.
These people were promised a specific list of 7 things. 5 of which were already working when they bought FSD so those are delivered. Stoplight/stopsigns is now delviered (to the US anyway) so that's 6/7. Autosteer in the city is the missing feature.
So I guess of the 7k they paid (some a bit more or less) they could expect 1k refunds- 1/7 features undelivered right?
That's not nothing, but let's say take rate is 50%, and Tesla sells an average of 500k cars (that'll probably be moderately close combining 2020 sales and the last 3/4 of 2019), so that's 250 million bucks per year of sales they need to refund- or about 500 million total.
Even combining both groups, that's less than -1- billion in refunds. Let alone the insane BILLIONS you suggest.
Good news for Tesla though- unrecognized FSD revenue (which is all the revenue for the $ they took but haven't delivered the features of) is a LIABILITY on their books. Which goes away with a refund.
Anyway- it's true non-buyers might be entitled to some $ too (or they might not- like in the EAP lawsuit), but it'd obviously be less (almost certainly far less) so even then you're nowhere near the plural of "billion" in refunds.
@Knightshade,
I think it is agreeing with your estimates that Tesla liability (legal costs, refunds, etc.) will be in the ballpark of hundreds of millions. I guess someone with better understanding of the law can have a better estimate.
I think it is agreeing with your estimates that Tesla liability (legal costs, refunds, etc.) will be in the ballpark of hundreds of millions. I guess someone with better understanding of the law can have a better estimate.
Atari2600
Active Member
Poor weather detected
Navigate on Autopilot disabled
Nope. During some rain yesterday NoA turned off and went back to autopilot mode. I did not purchase "Sunny Weather FSD".
Navigate on Autopilot disabled
Nope. During some rain yesterday NoA turned off and went back to autopilot mode. I did not purchase "Sunny Weather FSD".
Hence lemon was in ‘ ‘
I was trying to dumb it down
Another analogy. Let’s say air conditioning is a $1K option. I order said option with my car, but no air conditioning is supplied & it can’t be fixed. The manufacturer gives me a $1K credit. How does that help me when I live & work next to Death Valley?
The fundamental premise on which the car was bought cannot be fulfilled. The car is useless to me - a judge would order a full refund plus costs.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Might wanna try going the other direction
Except, of course, AC exists.
You're not buying it with the car and the promise they're working on inventing it and you'll get it at some unknown future date as you did with FSD.
You are, very clearly, accepting the car is ok AS A CAR without FSD on day 1- since you're told upfront it doesn't come with it on day 1.
he really wouldn't.
Especially since, obviously, your car is not "useless" to you since I'd bet real money it does not have 0 miles on it since purchase.
Your entire argument is built on an obviously false premise.
Agree. Even though you may not have paid for the option, the used car value will have dropped substantially overnight (this could be starkly demonstrated by a Tesla built September 2016 with HW1.0 vs another built October 2016 with HW2.0) That you haven’t paid for the FSD upgrade yet, would suggest to a judge a lack of loss, since by your actions you hadn’t shown intent (unless you could show intent through other means eg: that friends & family could never stop you talking about wanting to buy a Tesla because it had full self driving)
No you’re still not getting it.
A manufacturer has induced me to act.
To be blunter, navigate on autopilot on city streets promised date has been & gone. Robotaxi capable service by end of 2020 is pending & won’t be met either. It comes down to whether Musk’s words at presentation & past advertising of promised features hold weight in the eyes of a judge. My guess is yes, but we don’t know until a judgement is made.
As for the ‘0 miles’ statement - it doesn’t apply if you have no other mode of transport, plus you have been put out in the process of buying the car & the lengths gone to have it rectified - the consumer has incurred ‘costs/loss’
Mo City
Active Member
Give me a break. Your analogy doesn't amount to a hill of beans when it comes to how a court would rule on HW3 failing to achieve legit FSD. Using this gross exaggeration doesn't support your point. We aren't a bunch of children here.
The legal process is a bit more complicated than you understand.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I am- your understanding of the law here is very poor and counter to reality.
Why haven't you already filed your lawsuit?
Better question- why do you think zero actual lawyers have filed such a lawsuit?
And was never an officially advertised feature of the car during the buying process either.
Of course it does.
Your exact words were " The car is useless to me"
When it's clearly not. It's been used, as car, for quite some time.
Therefore asking for the FULL price back is ridiculous and a judge would laugh you out of court asking for that.
You're certainly free to go speak to some attorneys and see how many are interested in your case on contingency though since you think it's an obvious win- I suspect it'll be roughly 0 though and nobody is going to help you file the suit unless you're paying them cash up front because they know they won't be collecting any from Tesla on such an ask.
We’ve been down this road before. There was a class action against Tesla for FSD purchases and no features. Settlement was a prorated amount of the FSD package.
There’s a legal principle called unjust enrichment. You can’t benefit more than your damages. you have and drive a car. That’s the vast majority of the value. Having the car drive itself is a fragment of that value.
Good luck with the lawsuit, though!
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Will they eventually deliver a car that meets the current dumbed down “fancy cruise control” definition of FSD? Certainly, and that’s all Tesla owes you.
A car that actually drives itself? Real L4/L5 autonomy? Not a chance in hell.
The opinions expressed here suggesting massive liability for Tesla and full price buybacks are comedy gold.
A car that actually drives itself? Real L4/L5 autonomy? Not a chance in hell.
The opinions expressed here suggesting massive liability for Tesla and full price buybacks are comedy gold.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's all Tesla owes the March-2019 and newer buyers (and even moreso the post April 2020 ones where they dumbed it down even more).
The Oct 2016 through Feb 2019 buyers they still owe a real L4 car. (which I agree is unlikely to be delivered)- hence they're gonna owe those folks some money (though per my earlier math, more like a refund of the 3k-4k paid for FSD, not a whole car refund- and maybe even less if they can manage to at least get something like L3 highway which I think they can)
Tesla will likely choose to upgrade existing FSD owners for free. Will be cheaper.
I'm quite happy with Tesla's progress, notwithstanding any Elon tweets that full FSD will be available day after tomorrow
Since FSD has the potential to take lives if not done absolutely correctly, I'm greatly in favor of doing it (bulletproof) right, rather than doing it quickly.
I'm amazed that, given that Elon is producing Tesla cars, residential, commercial and governmental power storage, solar panels and roofs, mass-transportation tunnels, and Starships, he gets so much done so quickly.
Since FSD has the potential to take lives if not done absolutely correctly, I'm greatly in favor of doing it (bulletproof) right, rather than doing it quickly.
I'm amazed that, given that Elon is producing Tesla cars, residential, commercial and governmental power storage, solar panels and roofs, mass-transportation tunnels, and Starships, he gets so much done so quickly.
I highly doubt that Tesla will admit that pre-March FSD is different from post-March FSD. Such admission will likely enable even more lawsuits, just because of such an admission (if it actually happens, of course).
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