Why Don't We Drive More Electric Vehicles?

[cpa]

Ecarfan,

I would hesitate to dismiss the 50-mile spacing of fast or Supercharging suggestion made by mzpolo. Climate and other factors take a proportionately larger toll on energy usage as compared to an ICE. When the hoi polloi start embracing BEVs for daily and travel use they will need to have that reassurance that a charge is close. They won't bother to do trip planning or the mental arithmetic necessary to avoid running out of charge. (ICE mentality.) Navigation software can only do so much, and it cannot overcome people's ignorance, naivete or inattention to these sorts of details, especially today with a comparatively much shorter range than most ICE cars on the road today.

 

[mzpolo]

Ecarfan,

When the hoi polloi start embracing BEVs for daily and travel use they will need to have that reassurance that a charge is close. They won't bother to do trip planning or the mental arithmetic necessary to avoid running out of charge. (ICE mentality.) Navigation software can only do so much, and it cannot overcome people's ignorance, naivete or inattention to these sorts of details, especially today with a comparatively much shorter range than most ICE cars on the road today.

Yes.. that was what I was trying to communicate.

 

[TTT]

There was a time when electric cars were cmmon, a little history The Henry Ford's Innovation Nation TV | CBS | Episode 23

 

[BrianC]

1) cost 2) range 3) vastly better charging access

Once those two things are better they will sell.

What am I going to do with a 80mile range car on a day trip that is 70 miles each way? Spend four hours charging at multiple points in the trip?? NOPE!

 

[tonybelding]

I think the entire report went off-track before it got started, in its underlying assumption: that electric cars aren't catching on quickly, and we need to figure out why.

I would argue that they are catching on quickly. Very quickly. I've been astonished by how many Leafs have been sold despite its piddling 75 mile range. It's probably just as remarkable how many Chevy Volts have sold, considering a product category (PHEV) that didn't even exist a few years ago and which many people find quite confusing.

The car industry is huge and deeply entrenched in both our culture and our industrial infrastructure. It can't turn on a dime, or transform overnight. The shift to EVs is happening about as fast as anybody versed in the facts could reasonably expect, and faster than many expected. Sure, we've had some politicians stand in front of the cameras and say absurd things. "We're going to have a bazillion electric cars on the road in five years!" That's fantasy land: where many politicians apparently live, or at least vacation. That was never going to happen. Press conferences don't make it happen.

It hasn't been that long since you couldn't buy a new, highway-capable EV! Your options were. . . A glorified golf cart with a top speed of 25 MPH (NEV). One of the rare surviving RAV4 EVs that turned up once in a while on eBay. Or maybe a kit car (like the Bradley or Tropica) left over from the 1970s-1980s. You could gamble on pre-ordering a car from one of the half-baked startup companies trying to make electric weird-mobiles (Aptera, Tango, Myers). Or you could get an old clunker and spend a small fortune converting it to an EV with 40 miles range. PHEVs were still a theory, they were like science fiction. I'm not talking many decades ago here; this was a time less than 10 years ago.

I look at the change that's occurred in the last ten years, and it's amazing. Yet, we still have people wringing their hands and asking, "Why don't we have a bazillion EVs on the road now like noted political figure X said we would?"

The groundwork is being laid right in front of our eyes for greatly accelerating acceptance of EVs. Mass production, cost reduction and competition are coming into play. Batteries are still being refined. Major car makers are starting to see this as a space in the market where they need to be. EVs are working their way into the public consciousness. Charging standards are established and stations being installed. No, it doesn't happen overnight, and it doesn't happen on political fantasy timetables -- but it does gather momentum like a snowball rolling down a slope. This is what success looks like.

 

[ecarfan]

When the hoi polloi start embracing BEVs for daily and travel use they will need to have that reassurance that a charge is close. They won't bother to do trip planning or the mental arithmetic necessary to avoid running out of charge. (ICE mentality.) Navigation software can only do so much, and it cannot overcome people's ignorance, naivete or inattention to these sorts of details...

I disagree. I have been using Tesla's latest nav trip planning software and energy usage graph -- projected vs. actual -- on a variety of all-day trips in my S and have found it remarkably accurate . I know that some owners have posted complaints about it, and I acknowledge that it no doubt is not perfect. But my experience has been positive and with time of course it will improve. I think it does a good job of informing the driver regarding how much they have to charge to each their destination and how much charge they will have when they get there. I think almost anyone can learn to use it with minimal training. It obviates the need for any "mental arithmetic", as you put it, and as the Supercharger network continues to expand there will be fewer parts of the US that are inaccessible to Tesla owners.

 

[scaesare]

The fundamental fact of EV charging that is usually ignored by EV skeptics is that for the owners who can charge at home, the time they spend charging for well over 90% of their miles traveled is ZERO. It take only a few seconds to plug in your EV at home. Essentially ZERO time spent charging.
So it does not matter if the average time the vehicle takes to charge up from a low state to a nearly full state is 10 minutes (which isn't possible...yet) to 20 minutes (at a Tesla Supercharger) or even 6 to 10 hours (e.g. home charging at 40A).

Of course not everyone will be able to charge "at home" because those who live in multi-unit buildings may not be able to install L2 chargers. But a significant percentage of car owners in the US are able to install L2.
Tesla is beginning to address the needs of those who can't L2 charge at their residence with Superchargers in urban areas.
In my opinion it is certainly not necessary to have EV chargers "every 50 miles" (as @mzpolo states), and car buyers will not require that for EVs that have a 200 mile real world range, which is what Elon has committed to for the Model 3.
The Model 3 will address the obstacles of cost and range by providing 200 miles for $35K, plus access to the Expanding Supercharger network.
The Model 3, and the GM Bolt if comes to market, will capture the attention of many car buyers because they will have the range and the price to make people realize that an EV is a viable transportation choice. The Model 3 will be the clear winner because it will be able to use the Tesla Supercharger network, but just the fact that GM is offering a long range BEV will help promote EV in general. And by then it seems likely that the Nissan Leaf will have been upgraded to a 140 mile or greater range.

Well stated. And this is something that almost has to be experienced to understand. As soon as you realize you simply start every day "fully fueled", and that for 99% of your driving needs that's all that needs to be done, you realize the simplicity of that equation.

The buddy I convinced to buy a Tesla said to me a bit later something to the effect of "I don't have to think about it any more.. I just unplug and go every morning."

Of course, long distance charging infrastructure is important too, but the offerings you mention are going to help people to realize that for the vast majority of their daily driving needs, the level of additional effort put in to worrying about charging is essentially 0.

 

[cpa]

I disagree. I have been using Tesla's latest nav trip planning software and energy usage graph -- projected vs. actual -- on a variety of all-day trips in my S and have found it remarkably accurate . I know that some owners have posted complaints about it, and I acknowledge that it no doubt is not perfect. But my experience has been positive and with time of course it will improve. I think it does a good job of informing the driver regarding how much they have to charge to each their destination and how much charge they will have when they get there. I think almost anyone can learn to use it with minimal training. It obviates the need for any "mental arithmetic", as you put it, and as the Supercharger network continues to expand there will be fewer parts of the US that are inaccessible to Tesla owners.

Fan, what I was trying to say is that most of us who have taken the plunge today are more assiduous in determining our charging stops and planning our routes. (We both are examples of this!) We understand the nuances when it comes to driving an electric vehicle that requires more than just getting in the car and driving. I do not believe that when BEVs become more mainstream that many future buyers will have the dedication and resolve and patience to take the time to plan routine trips, especially ones they have made before.

I do not disagree with you about the "nav trip planning software." I will even stipulate that eventually the software will be able to use real-time weather and road conditions to estimate the charge needed, reserve upon arrival, recommended speed and wh/mile before departure (and not after starting out, as it does now.) But all those goodies and helpful hints are useless unless the people actually know how to use them and actually do use them. That is why I feel that Superchargers (or at least 80A public chargers) need to be spaced more closely together before BEVs really catch on.

You can lead a horse, you know, but then all bets are off! :smile:

 

[ecarfan]

@cpa I appreciate your reasoned response. I hope that with every new Tesla delivery, the Tesla Delivery Specialist takes the time to go over the basics of the navigation and trip planning software with the new owner. If they do, most people should have no trouble. Of course a few will, just as some ICE drivers still manage to run out of gas even though they have been driving for years or even decades.
I am confident that when the Model 3 launches the car software will be sufficiently advanced and user friendly that it will not present an obstacle to EV adoption. We shall see...

 

[eloder]

No, people would not necessarily have bought a Volt, because the Volt wouldn't necessarily save you money. Cost of money, miles driven, driving environment, climate, regular gas to electricity + premium gas differential, taxes. Zero chance our Volt would be a financial deal.

Make them cheaper and they'll sell. Some people buy, they tell their friends, and then all the unfamiliarity becomes less scary and other people buy.

Used Volts, in my opinion, are far better than a new or even used Prius for the price range though.

Brand new I agree--they're pretty expensive, and I haven't (maybe it's my ignorance?) seen Volt lease deals anywhere close to the Leaf lease deals even in my zero EV credit state of Ohio. For me it also made zero sense to buy a Volt as I can do 100% of my daily activities on a Leaf, but I couldn't on a Volt--don't need to lug all that extra weight, maintenance, and cost around for those maybe 5-10 days a year I might actually need it.

I expect more people to "do the numbers" when their friends and family start buying EVs in increasing numbers. Some people at work are dumbfounded when I tell them my Leaf cost about $6 to run it 400 miles at our awesome low electricity prices with averaging near 5 miles/kwh. It certainly hits people a lot harder than my gas smart car lease payment of $87 a month (that was always a fun one to throw out at people!).

 

[Electroman]

Tony: well said. People forget how things were just 6 years ago before Leaf and Volt were announced. The acronym EV was not even in the lexicon of most people. In a short span of 5 years we have come a long way. The next 10 years will be very interesting.

 

[Grendal]

I am confident that when the Model 3 launches the car software will be sufficiently advanced and user friendly that it will not present an obstacle to EV adoption. We shall see...

I sure hope so. It would be nice if the car was "user friendly" to a non-EV buyer. I also hope there is a way to turn off the helpful advice for someone knowledgeable about an EV and Tesla.

electric weird-mobiles (Aptera, Tango, Myers)

I still have hopes for a hyper-efficient vehicle available to buy. It would be great to be able to buy an EV that goes 200 miles on a 24 kWh pack. As battery efficiency improves the need for such a thing is lessened however. The Edison 2 VLC was the last company working on such a thing as far as I know.

 

[tonybelding]

I still have hopes for a hyper-efficient vehicle available to buy. It would be great to be able to buy an EV that goes 200 miles on a 24 kWh pack. As battery efficiency improves the need for such a thing is lessened however. The Edison 2 VLC was the last company working on such a thing as far as I know.

For what it's worth, I thought the Tango and the Aptera seemed like promising concepts. Unfortunately, both companies lacked the resources (financial and otherwise) to pull through. It's an incredibly difficult business to get into.

 

[David99]

Tony, I think you are right, EVs have made an amazing comeback in less than 10 years and the signs are clear everywhere that they are coming big time. Considering how conservative the car industry is, the change has been remarkable.

 

[mknox]

I've posted this story before: A fellow I know founded a small software company making optical design software. He started in the DOS era. He got the idea that maybe they should bring out a Windows version, and decided to survey his customers. He got a very high percentage response rate, and almost everyone said "no, it's working great the way it is". He looked at the data, and thought... "naw, we're doing it anyway." His sales TRIPLED when the Windows version came out.

Dodge famously did the same thing before bringing out a minivan with a second sliding door. Focus groups said "nah", but Dodge put the second door in anyway and they sold like hotcakes. Ford had to scramble with their Windstar by modifying the then current design to make the driver's door a bit longer and added a folding driver's seatback. This was a stopgap until they could re-design with dual sliding doors.

 

[tomas]

Tony: well said. People forget how things were just 6 years ago before Leaf and Volt were announced. The acronym EV was not even in the lexicon of most people. In a short span of 5 years we have come a long way. The next 10 years will be very interesting.

Agree. This is how I look at technology progression: in 10 year slices. There are some products like cell phones that are faster, but cars have a relatively long life and long engineering lead time. Go back 10 years, and we did not know the term EV, nav was a rarity, no back up sensors or cameras, etc. now we are talking about auto pilot and arguing about when EVs become mainstream. I believe we will see a tipping point within 10 years when people start asking "why not EV?" rather than "why EV?" at car-buying time.

Btw, I thought article was very good. Unusually good. Presented facts vs opinions.

 

[BrianC]

Perfect thing happened to me today. I had a meeting with a company that just redid its whole building and added solar panels and a wind turbine and got a green rating for the corporate office.

When I pulled in I noticed not a single charging station was being used and no EV cars seemed to be in the lot at all (its not that big of a lot maybe 3 rows). While I was waited to be seen I asked the receptionist about if anyone ever used the chargers at all and her response was "Well some people talked about getting one... But, they left the company". When I asked if she would think about getting one and having a $0 gas bill and saving over $100 a month most likely she responded with "But then I would have to walk across the parking lot". WOW!! A whole 70 feet is stopping someone from buying a EV. That is a prime example of what the EV market is up against... laziness.

 

[beeeerock]

To the question "why don't we drive more electric vehicles", the answer to me is "because the offerings are sparse and pretty much suck". The exception is, of course, the Tesla offerings.

So the question should actually be "why aren't there more and better EV models on the market?"

The answer to that question comes in three parts (IMHO anyway!).

Greed. Car manufacturers are making good money doing what they're doing today. They know they can make money selling a car. More importantly, they know they're going to make really good money servicing the car over its (limited) life. Service centers are profit centers. An EV isn't going to need the same level of service and there is no obvious business model to replace the ICE profitability dollar for dollar.

Laziness. Car manufacturers don't want to upset their apple cart by making a wholesale change to their business model. They've learned they can make minor cosmetic changes to their existing product line and sell it as new and improved. Starting from zero isn't an enticing option. There is no certainty that doing so would keep them in business at all... what if they can't get the lead out and innovate? It's been YEARS since the word 'innovative' was used in a sentence describing a car company... unless it was preceded by 'not'!

Disruption. That's a word that gets tossed around plenty these days, especially when talking about Tesla. Consider how much day to day life is centered on the current ICE model. And how much of the economy is welded at the hip to the ICE. The service centres at dealerships, independent garages, muffler shops, brake shops, parts makers, supply stores, gas stations, refineries, fuel tankers... the list goes on. Nobody likes change. Not many muffler guys will want to go to work in the Gigafactory... or be qualified to do so.

Of course, while those comments are centered more on the automotive industry itself, there is always the assumption that Big Oil is pulling strings to keep their profits coming in. The three words above could be applied to them too. They are like fruit flies... they'll gorge themselves until the fruit runs out, then their population will die off overnight. We have to put a fine mesh screen between them and the fruit if we want them to search for other food options. i.e., oil has to be legislated to stay in the ground. Big Oil will never change just because of the trivial concern that their business is quickly killing off life on the planet...

We know a practical line of EV's is possible. Most of us own the flagship of the future armada. Tesla has succeeded without any real marketing or advertising. Imagine if the big car companies started advertising an EV that was half way between the i3 and the Tesla as far as size and range goes... and imagine if they started telling consumers they all just had to have it? It would sell like hotcakes, you know it would!

 

[Mookuh]

When I asked if she would think about getting one and having a $0 gas bill and saving over $100 a month most likely she responded with "But then I would have to walk across the parking lot".

If you managed to keep your cool here I salute you. I would have most likely lost it and went on a rant about how that attitude is one of the biggest issues of our society :-/

 

[spacexfan]

I tell you why I will never drive an EV:

Gas Price: 3$/Gallon.
My Prius: 50mpg EPA, 40mpg Real world.
-> 0.075$/Mile fuel costs.


Nissan Leaf/Tesla Model S: 350Wh/Mile, 450Wh/Mile Real world.
20% Charging to wheel efficiency loss (assumed) -> 540Wh/Mile.
-> 0.54 * (Your electricity rate, Mine in Florida is 0.12$/Kwh) 0.12 = 0.068$/Mile ~ Gas Price.
-> 0.54 * (GERMANY (Cali too? There is a lot of solar power there too) is 0.35$/kwh) = 0.19$/Mile ~ 2-3 times Gas Price. !!!!

With more renewables coming online soon, electricity prices will increase. In addition the general customer does NOT care about CO2 emissions.



-----> NO THANK YOU EV.


:smile: