-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
-
On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
When will 100+ KWh battery become available?
- Thread starter Rodolfo Paiz
- Start date
In my opinion, chasing incremental increases in technology or battery capacity is a funny thing.
When the time comes and that 3% range increase becomes available, another increase will be "just around the corner". The result is you may end up waiting too long for something you have already wanted for a long time. Also you may be sacrificing the present for a future that never arrives. (life has a way messing up our plans )
Since I have already waited 3 years for a Model X I sympathize with your desire to have the most up to date Model X with the most range. Personally I appreciate there will be improvements in autopilot and battery capacity, yet I am not delaying this any further.
If it means anything to you, it's quite possible all battery upgrades will be available as a Tesla aftermarket purchase. Since all battery packs are completely removable and replaceable. It would probably not be any more expensive than the natural price difference.
When the time comes and that 3% range increase becomes available, another increase will be "just around the corner". The result is you may end up waiting too long for something you have already wanted for a long time. Also you may be sacrificing the present for a future that never arrives. (life has a way messing up our plans )
Since I have already waited 3 years for a Model X I sympathize with your desire to have the most up to date Model X with the most range. Personally I appreciate there will be improvements in autopilot and battery capacity, yet I am not delaying this any further.
If it means anything to you, it's quite possible all battery upgrades will be available as a Tesla aftermarket purchase. Since all battery packs are completely removable and replaceable. It would probably not be any more expensive than the natural price difference.
Try driving in cold weather..... A bigger battery would make a huge change for me - when it's <20F, a 180 miles trip becomes challenging. I am tired of driving at 60-65 mph with the heater set at 67F just to be able to make it without having to charge on the way. Would also be nice to skip those superchargers on long trips.
I'd say there is going to be a 100kWh version this year, possibly even sooner than later. Why?
-Its already embedded in a non functional part of the most recent software, that would only be necessary if you want to use that software for a 100kWh car, maybe to be able to go one version back, because of bugs, but not 2 years before you bring it to market. Especially if you plan to bring a 95kWh car next.
-The GF is already running and they are increasing the capacity, so at some point they will use GF cells for their Model S and X and that has to be before they use it for the Model 3, or else you will end up with unused factory equipment, they also won't change the cell format , built in the GF, just before the 3 and produce the old ones until then.
-The last jump in capacity was mainly because of the use of silicon, which they used just mildly. They might even have hoped of a bigger increase, but Panasonic wasn't able to deliver in time and they needed a bigger battery for the X. I remember some Tesla comments about suppliers not being as committed as needed, about a year ago. The next jump might be be bigger, not only because they might make more bold changes, but also because of the geometry changes.
-And last but not least, come on its already in the software and not just mentioned, but a picture file, how much more proof do you need?
-Its already embedded in a non functional part of the most recent software, that would only be necessary if you want to use that software for a 100kWh car, maybe to be able to go one version back, because of bugs, but not 2 years before you bring it to market. Especially if you plan to bring a 95kWh car next.
-The GF is already running and they are increasing the capacity, so at some point they will use GF cells for their Model S and X and that has to be before they use it for the Model 3, or else you will end up with unused factory equipment, they also won't change the cell format , built in the GF, just before the 3 and produce the old ones until then.
-The last jump in capacity was mainly because of the use of silicon, which they used just mildly. They might even have hoped of a bigger increase, but Panasonic wasn't able to deliver in time and they needed a bigger battery for the X. I remember some Tesla comments about suppliers not being as committed as needed, about a year ago. The next jump might be be bigger, not only because they might make more bold changes, but also because of the geometry changes.
-And last but not least, come on its already in the software and not just mentioned, but a picture file, how much more proof do you need?
400 miles total @ 80mph highway speed on a rainy day.
I guess this would require a P200DD. Double-D = dual drive and dual battery.
I think the 100KWh battery will come sooner. The Model X doesn't have great range with the 90 KWh battery and bumping the Model S battery to 100 KWh will have a psychological benefit that could drive sales more than the refresh did. The Model S 90D currently has an EPA range just under 300 miles. With the 100 KWh battery it will have around 325 miles range on the EPA rating, which is in the low end of ICE cars.
This article
What’s your gasoline car’s range?
is a few years old, but it does highlight the psychological barrier 300 miles range is. Tesla needs to keep selling Model Ss until the Model 3 is well established in the market.
I expect the 100 KWh battery sometime this year. I expect the Model S and X will get the first battery packs made at the GF and once production there is enough to cover all of the S/X production, the Panasonic facilities in Japan will shut down for retooling to new battery chemistries.
This article
What’s your gasoline car’s range?
is a few years old, but it does highlight the psychological barrier 300 miles range is. Tesla needs to keep selling Model Ss until the Model 3 is well established in the market.
I expect the 100 KWh battery sometime this year. I expect the Model S and X will get the first battery packs made at the GF and once production there is enough to cover all of the S/X production, the Panasonic facilities in Japan will shut down for retooling to new battery chemistries.
Very common scenario for people who live in suburbs say 80-110 miles from a major city center. You want to go into the city, do some shopping/eating/theater at different locations in the city and still have plenty of juice to get home while driving quickly, not worrying about charging during the day, using climate control on very hot/cold days and still have lots of spare range left.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Believe that Tesla intends to take their S and X up market to make financial room for the Model 3 when fully equipped.
Expect to see higher capacity batteries, better interiors, more features like automatically opening and closing doors, better performance and range, faster supercharging, better lighting and entertainment systems.
Expect to see higher capacity batteries, better interiors, more features like automatically opening and closing doors, better performance and range, faster supercharging, better lighting and entertainment systems.
I'd say it's bad timing. Gigafactory ahead of schedule, Model X delayed and ramp is slower than anticipated means they don't want to release a new pack while they are still working through the backlog of X 90's. I have feeling it won't replace the 90 pack but be another option for 100 or 105.
The X needs that larger back for anybody who might be doing long distance towing.
The X needs that larger back for anybody who might be doing long distance towing.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Well, since you asked...
Perhaps enough to not expend a 100% charge in 150 miles (with minimal catalysts*) when the rated range is 270+.
There's so much that needs to be done before "never thinking you need a bigger battery", that to assume otherwise shows an abject lack of real-world experience outside of a 50-mile radius of one's abode.
* Catalysts today include a frequently-encountered speed limit of 75mph, slight net sustained elevation changes, modest temperature changes not even close to freezing, light rain, or some combination of any or all of those.
What about people that live 110-130 miles away? It's a no win situation if you constantly just say, I need a little bit more range and I don't want to stop and charge the car. Electric cars aren't for these people.
Also, if you're 110 miles away from the nearest city center then you do not live in the suburbs of that city.
Similar threads
