Weekly capacity at Fremont will be at least 2,500 after upgrade of Body Line in 2015.

[Benz]

Elon did not say 2017 but I think it was implied in the question. If GF is not online as scheduled how many units could you build.

You got that right. I should have known.

More importantly, another related situation came to my mind.
That is the 1.8 Billion battery cell agreement (from October 2013) for the period of 2014/2015/2016/2017.
I thought: "How many Model S/X cars can Tesla produce with 1.8 Billion battery cells?
If you would take an average of 6,000 battery cells per battery pack, then that would result in a total of 300,000 Tesla Model S/X cars in a period of 4 years!!!
I think that Tesla Motors will produce and deliver in total more than 300,000 Tesla Model S/X cars in these 4 years.
In that case I too think that Samsung SDI could come into play (as you have mentioned before).

 

[FredTMC]

Diarmuid O'Connell presented slides at TMC Connect that gave extra details about the factory expansion. He showed a phased expansion over the next three quarters:

1. Model S/X High Volume Assembly Line, Summer 2014
2. Battery Module Line 2, Summer 2014
3. High Volume Battery Pack Line, Summer 2014
4. Drive Unit Line, Autumn 2014
5. Model S/X Body Center, Early 2015

From my recollection of the factory layout and the slides he presented, the new High Volume Assembly Line and Drive Unit Line are in portions of the factory not currently in use, but the new Body Center area is (I think) part of the current production area, directly west of the stamping center.

Thx Robert. Yes, when I saw the slide, I concluded as well that the new High Volume Assembly Line is in a portion of factory not currently in use until now.

 

[Benz]

After having listened to Elon Musk, JB Straubel and Deepak Ahuja on the Conference Call yesterday, I have to conclude the following:

There is only one Assembly line, and this Assembly Line has now been upgraded (more efficient, more automation, resulting in a higher production capacity per week). Production will start again on August 4th, 2014. The Body Line will be upgraded in Q1 2015.

In reply to Ben Kallo with Robert W. Baird: "Regarding the production (capacity) increase to a level of 100,000 unit a year, by the end of next year. Some other step to get you to that level?"

Elon Musk: "Well, there is a big step that´s expected to occur in Q1 next year (2015). Which is the bring up of the S/X Body Line. So, what we did in the past two weeks is the Assembly Line, where it´s basically that the bits get put together. But then the Body Line is where the body itself is welded and bonded together, where in fact the core skeleton of the car is created ..... We are gonna bring the Body Line up in parrallel with the current Line. Unlike this case with the Assembly (Line), we didn´t have two complete Assembly Lines, we had to stop and retool. In the case of the new S/X Body Line, which is a line that has been designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that. Conservatively 2,500 units a week. At a lower cost point. We should be able to do that in parrallel (Model S + Model X). Another really big upgrade is the Paint Shop. There are a few cases where advanced CapEx spending makes sense even though it's gonna pay of in two to three years. But it's such a big improvement that you kinda wanna do it, even at a high discount rate. Our Paint Shop is being upgraded and it's gonna be the most advanced Automotive Paint Shop in the world. It's expensive to do that."

My question now is: "Can we assume/conclude that the Tesla Fremont Factory will have a production capacity of at least 2,500 cars a week (Model S + Model X), by the end of Q1 2015?

Please post your comments/arguments both if you agree or disagree with this assumption/conclusion.

Thanks

To realise growth for Tesla Motors they will have to get to a higher number of annual deliveries of the Tesla Model S (and as from 2015 also the Tesla Model X, and as from 2017 the Tesla Model 3, etc.), we have to consider the combination of a number of important subjects/factors. And there needs to be a kind of a balance with these subjects/factors. Among other subjects/factors which are also important, the seven most important subjects/factors are (in random order):

- Stores;
- Service Centers;
- The Supercharger network;
- Demand (reservations and orders);
- Production capacity at the Tesla Fremont factory (+ the additional Tesla factories later on);
- Supply chain (among other items, most importantly the shipments of the Panasonic battery cells from Japan).
- Enormous amounts for annual investments in R&D and future products.

The comments of Elon Musk as mentioned in my first post in this thread concern the subject/factor "Production capacity at the Tesla Fremont factory".

Although 2,500 (up to a maximum of 3,000?) cars per week sound like a lot (certainly currently), this will soon (2017?) become a bottleneck for getting to a real high annual delivery number (200,000 S/X in 2017?).

Therefore, I think that investments concerning an even more increasing production capacity to an even higher level of up to at least 6,000 cars per week will be evident and necessary soon (in 2016 already?).

Your thoughts/guesses/predictions/opinions/arguments please.

 

[chickensevil]

2500 will be the expected output of the body shop only. For reference, the aluminum stamping is already able to do 500k units a year (10,000 a week). Just because one part of the shop has a higher output doesn't mean it all will.

Final Assembly (outside of the Battery Supplies) has been their bottleneck for quite some time, and is likely to remain so. I think way back in the beginning it was actually the paint shop, which I think they must have already done something there to fix that once already... since then it has been final assembly to the best of my knowledge. A lot of this is also caused by this being done by human interaction I am sure, so as they transition into a higher speed it will likely become more automated.

At some point, I am guessing they will need a second Final Assembly line. I would look for that to be the key for their push into 2k. I think from the comments I have heard they said they can hit 1k+ but I don't think they will be able to get 2k out of this line... Maybe I am getting something mixed up here.

 

[rcc]

Most advanced paint shop in the world. Would love to know details. Hopefully they diversify their colors from shades of black too.

While more colors would be nice, improving the quality of the paint job is the big deal. The factory paint is as bad as the rest of the car is good. It's by far the weakest aspect of the current car, IMO.

 

[chickensevil]

While more colors would be nice, improving the quality of the paint job is the big deal. The factory paint is as bad as the rest of the car is good. It's by far the weakest aspect of the current car, IMO.

Isn't that mostly because of the type of paints they have to use in California because of regulations?

 

[rcc]

Isn't that mostly because of the type of paints they have to use in California because of regulations?

Doubt it. I think it has everything to do with how it's applied and polished. I never really paid attention to the cars coming out of the NUMMI plant but I'd be willing to bet that the paint jobs coming out of that plant were better than what's coming out of the Tesla plant today.

Fortunately for Tesla, most people don't notice those details. You have to go to a high-end detail shop to get that kind of education. But once it's pointed out, it's pretty obvious.

I'm just glad they're fixing it.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Doubt it. I think it has everything to do with how it's applied and polished. I never really paid attention to the cars coming out of the NUMMI plant but I'd be willing to bet that the paint jobs coming out of that plant were better than what's coming out of the Tesla plant today.

Fortunately for Tesla, most people don't notice those details. You have to go to a high-end detail shop to get that kind of education. But once it's pointed out, it's pretty obvious.

I'm just glad they're fixing it.

Tesla made it a point to use low-emissions paint processes, which limited their options. I don't believe that this was imposed by California.

 

[chickensevil]

Tesla made it a point to use low-emissions paint processes, which limited their options. I don't believe that this was imposed by California.

Well, and here I was hating on California all this time. I guess it was Tesla's choice all along. I mean I glad that they are environmentally conscious about everything they do, but you have to do something about this paint to keep it from getting scratched and swirled so easily... I have really started to notice on my car how terrible the paint is starting to look after putting 10k miles on it. Hope the new paint will fix that.

 

[ecarfan]

but you have to do something about this paint to keep it from getting scratched and swirled so easily... I have really started to notice on my car how terrible the paint is starting to look after putting 10k miles on it.

You could wrap it.

I have silver so that hides a lot of flaws. I understand that those with dark colors have more to worry about. Though I do have a black roof and I am considering getting it wrapped.

 

[RobStark]

Calif. bans high-emission paint thinners, solvents

California air regulators approved strict regulations Thursday for aerosol air fresheners, paint thinners and solvents as a way to lessen smog-forming emissions and reduce a health threat.
By SAMANTHA YOUNG
Associated Press Writer


SACRAMENTO, Calif. —California air regulators approved strict regulations Thursday for aerosol air fresheners, paint thinners and solvents as a way to lessen smog-forming emissions and reduce a health threat.
The state Air Resources Board voted 8-0 to ban the sale of products that emit high levels of so-called volatile organic compounds. The rules are the toughest state mandate in the nation and will take effect Dec. 31, 2013.

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2009936670_apuscaliforniasolventregulations.html

New,in its price class I don't think there is a better paint Job than Tesla.

Dark colors may not be holding up as well after a lot of highway miles.

 

[DrDave]

This is all pretty far off from the actual capacity of the new line.

 

[chickensevil]

You could wrap it.

I have silver so that hides a lot of flaws. I understand that those with dark colors have more to worry about. Though I do have a black roof and I am considering getting it wrapped.

I am actually going to get estimates on some paint correction followed by a clear coat... But I shouldn't HAVE to do that. I realize if you want it to look perfect then it is normal no matter who you get the car from... But to this extent? To be clear I have ONlY hand washed the car using the two bucket method and microfiber cloth and I still got scratches... And it isn't swirls I have some actual scratches in some places on the car that I have no clue how they got there because while they are quite shallow they look quite serious... As in if you know where to look you can easily see it in just about any light. Why should I have to spend 500+ for a low end or up to 2k on a high end protection for the car?

- - - Updated - - -

And I'm sorry, this subject has been discussed and argued for a while now on the forums so I will leave it at that. I just hope that the new paint shop will not only allow higher rate but also allow them to incorporate a better paint job, and more colors! (I too am a very orange fan!)

 

[adiggs]

... (I too am a very orange fan!)

Excellent! Does 2 constitute a movement?

 

[chickensevil]

Excellent! Does 2 constitute a movement?

Looks like there are three of us you must have missed ecarfan's post

Makes us a 50% larger movement than you originally thought!

I'm part of that market segment!

 

[Robert.Boston]

Calif. bans high-emission paint thinners, solvents

California air regulators approved strict regulations Thursday for aerosol air fresheners, paint thinners and solvents as a way to lessen smog-forming emissions and reduce a health threat.
By SAMANTHA YOUNG
Associated Press Writer


SACRAMENTO, Calif. —California air regulators approved strict regulations Thursday for aerosol air fresheners, paint thinners and solvents as a way to lessen smog-forming emissions and reduce a health threat.
The state Air Resources Board voted 8-0 to ban the sale of products that emit high levels of so-called volatile organic compounds. The rules are the toughest state mandate in the nation and will take effect Dec. 31, 2013.

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2009936670_apuscaliforniasolventregulations.html

New,in its price class I don't think there is a better paint Job than Tesla.

Dark colors may not be holding up as well after a lot of highway miles.

Tesla voluntarily adopted this restriction some 18 months early. Of course, it knew it was coming, and it probably made good business sense to develop low-VOC paints upfront rather than having to reformulate at the end of 2013.

The new paint-line that Tesla is planning will apparently produce even better paint quality. That's one improvement every new buyers will welcome.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Where is it documented that the paint quality will improve with the new shop?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Who needs seeking alpha with shorts here. Where is it documented there is a paint issue. I have a white car now for 20 months. No issue with paint appearance or durability. Some operate under the assumption that if you say something often enough it becomes true.

 

[anon]

Where is it documented that the paint quality will improve with the new shop?

I believe that Elon said this on the conference call after earnings.

 

[ggr]

I believe that Elon said this on the conference call after earnings.

He basically said "best new paint shop in the world", which doesn't mana the current one is bad.