How likely is it that the current weekly production rate is very close to 1,000 per week?
I was pondering this question since the appearance of the reports that factory is operating on weekends, with at least Saturday operating in two shifts. My conclusion is that factory is currently probably producing at about
960 or so cars per week.
Here is my reasoning.
The factory was slow to ramp up new line with 2500 cars/week two shift capacity to the pre-upgrade level of about 800 cars/week. The new line, as discussed by Elon during the ER is more efficient in organization of the work flow and better automated, so it is reasonable to assume that it required some adjustments to the programming to achieve as designed output in terms of quality at certain production rate. This is likely an iterative process of doing the adjustments and verifying that they result in line producing desired quality product at the required production rate, and then repeating the cycle again as required, while gradually increasing the production rate.
Once all of the deficiencies are rectified, the production rate can be gradually increased, while additional wrinkles in production line are ironed out along the way. This process is likely completed now, as it would make no sense to increase production by adding Saturday shifts/Volunteer Sunday unless the desired quality is not achieved yet. Elon discussed and practiced this type of approach in the past, and it will be unreasonable to assume that it would change now.
The thing to consider now, is that since new assembly line is designed for two shift operation at 2500 cars/week, with the reduced work-hours per car, it does not require additional shifts beyond 10 shifts/week to increase it's production beyond the pre-upgrade 800 cars/week.
As was mentioned by Elon during the ER, the body-in-white line and paint shop, however, needed to be upgraded in order to take production up to slated 1000 cars/week. Based on this and prior reports on the production capacity, these lines/areas can be currently operated at as designed two shift capacity of 800 cars/week.
Based on the above, the Saturday/volunteer Sunday operation is required
and planned for at least body-in-white line and paint shop, and possibly other areas, in order to enable main assembly line to exceed two shift production rate of 800 cars/week. This operation (or addition of the third shift) will be required until the two body-in-white line and the paint shop are upgraded some time in the Q1/2015.
In conclusion, I take Saturday/volunteer Sunday operation as an indication that production line processes that have capacity of 800 cars/week and were not upgraded yet, are now operated at a higher rate to match the capacity of the main assembly line to produce more than 800 (up to 2500) cars per 5-day, 2-shifts per day week. Conservatively assuming additional two shifts operating on Saturday only yields 1.2 x 800 = 960 cars/week.
I think that we might see a tweet, or post, or an interview snippet about increased current production rate any time now.
Any thoughts on/attempts to disprove the above theory would be appreciated...
