We want some Model 3 Leaks, renders, sketches !

[Brad_SC]

Just a quick note that in Tesla's 10-K filing last week they said the following, indicating that as of 12/31 they didn't have an Alpha yet

As of December 31, 2015, the following two performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:

Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype;

http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-16-13195&CIK=1318605

But what does that REALLY mean ("considered probable of achievement")? haha

 

[aboveliquidice]

But what does that REALLY mean ("considered probable of achievement")? haha

From reading the report, Tesla believes these are attainable in the near future based upon some other internal criteria. These milestones refer to vesting points for the CEO Grant 2012. One other interesting tidbit: All unvested portions of the grant would be forfeit if Elon is somehow removed as CEO of Tesla.

 

[Big-T]

If you want to be first in line, camp out in front of the store for a few days leading up to March 31st.
-Don't be a nuisance, don't be rude, do leave if the store asks you to, etc.
-Don't book a 10am appointment on March 31st and hope to walk in, passing a line of people who have been there for hours or days when you haven't.
-Remember, in Kindergarten, (hopefully) you did learn about manners and that trying to skip the line is wrong, etc.
-Don't let other people make you shy away from trying to be first, but do it the right way... earn it.

Just my opinion.

Now, sharks, attack me if you will for not being a punk that tries to pass everyone who has earned their spot wherever they are in the line.

Is it realy that big of a deal to be 1st in line. I mean being the 1st reservation at your local store isn't going to guarantee you get the first production car, or even the first batch since they're supposedly building them based on the options you choose. I AM taking off a little early from work, but I figure as long as my name gets in there before the rest of the internet that's good enough.

 

[Brad_SC]

Is it realy that big of a deal to be 1st in line. I mean being the 1st reservation at your local store isn't going to guarantee you get the first production car, or even the first batch since they're supposedly building them based on the options you choose. I AM taking off a little early from work, but I figure as long as my name gets in there before the rest of the internet that's good enough.

I was just providing another person some feedback. They asked a question, I offered an answer.

Being first in line isn't important to me, but I do want to be toward the front. I mentioned being first as a concept, not my personal plan.

 

[McHoffa]

Is it realy that big of a deal to be 1st in line. I mean being the 1st reservation at your local store isn't going to guarantee you get the first production car, or even the first batch since they're supposedly building them based on the options you choose. I AM taking off a little early from work, but I figure as long as my name gets in there before the rest of the internet that's good enough.

I think that depends on just how many reservations they get right away. If it's in the 5k range in the first couple days, then sure, you'll probably get your car fairly soon after they start shipping even if you wait a few days to order. However, if they end up with 50k reservations, you could be waiting months, or a year, after launch to get one. Being first in line in that situation would be very big deal. That's exactly why I'm so frustrated that they're doing in store a full day before online. I simply cannot make the 3 hours drive on a weekday to the nearest store, so that means I'm 12-24 hours behind anyone that's lucky enough to live close to a store or can make the drive to one. If that means 4 weeks difference in ship time, oh well, but if it's 9 months difference, I'm not going to be happy at all.

 

[EcoHeliGuy]

Well if there is a 9 month wait 12hrs later, non of us have anything really to worry about. That means Tesla wins. And by the time you get your Model 3 it will have new features.

 

[gregincal]

I think that depends on just how many reservations they get right away. If it's in the 5k range in the first couple days, then sure, you'll probably get your car fairly soon after they start shipping even if you wait a few days to order. However, if they end up with 50k reservations, you could be waiting months, or a year, after launch to get one. Being first in line in that situation would be very big deal. That's exactly why I'm so frustrated that they're doing in store a full day before online. I simply cannot make the 3 hours drive on a weekday to the nearest store, so that means I'm 12-24 hours behind anyone that's lucky enough to live close to a store or can make the drive to one. If that means 4 weeks difference in ship time, oh well, but if it's 9 months difference, I'm not going to be happy at all.

There's only so many orders they can physically take in person in the stores, and if they can only make 50K cars in the first year they are in trouble.

 

[McHoffa]

There's only so many orders they can physically take in person in the stores, and if they can only make 50K cars in the first year they are in trouble.

I'm basing that off how slow the X rollout is. Remember, this is only about 20 months away, and they aren't even shipping orders placed for the X right now for almost a year. If they can't even get the X ramped up to a couple months out for production by then, I don't see very many 3s shipping in the first year.

 

[ryanjm]

There's only so many orders they can physically take in person in the stores, and if they can only make 50K cars in the first year they are in trouble.

If you believe Tesla will produce more than 50k Model 3s in its first year of production I think you may be setting yourself up for disappointment. There will almost certainly be a ramp-up just as there was with S and X. They're not going to go right from zero to hundreds of thousands of cars at the flip of a switch. Tesla is still a young, growing company that's never manufactured a car on this kind of scale.

 

[McHoffa]

Well if there is a 9 month wait 12hrs later, non of us have anything really to worry about. That means Tesla wins. And by the time you get your Model 3 it will have new features.

but I've already been waiting 9 1/2 years! By the end of next year, it will be over 11 years. That's a long time to wait for something.

 

[MassModel3]

Well if there is a 9 month wait 12hrs later, non of us have anything really to worry about. That means Tesla wins. And by the time you get your Model 3 it will have new features.

You have something to worry about if your delay in getting a Model 3 results in your missing the full tax credit available to you (up to $7.5K). That's a major motivator for me. That, plus my state has a $2.5K rebate that's not going to be around forever. Cash in my pocket, thank you. Money wasted/lost if I don't get those.

I'm basing that off how slow the X rollout is. Remember, this is only about 20 months away, and they aren't even shipping orders placed for the X right now for almost a year. If they can't even get the X ramped up to a couple months out for production by then, I don't see very many 3s shipping in the first year.

Not true. Granted, they may not be rolling the X out at the rate of the S, but I've seen several Model X's in my local service center alone. They're being delivered, albeit very slowly. Hopefully the 3 goes out the door faster.

 

[houdini]

I'm basing that off how slow the X rollout is. Remember, this is only about 20 months away, and they aren't even shipping orders placed for the X right now for almost a year. If they can't even get the X ramped up to a couple months out for production by then, I don't see very many 3s shipping in the first year.

I agree. It was just shy of 4 years from when we saw the X to when a few orders rolled out. Now we're passing 4 years and they're delivering only a few hundred a week. Even factoring in that the X had delays because of falcon wing issues which we dont expect the 3 to have you have to expect a minimum of two years before the X style launch evening where 5 cars get delivered. So my money is on 5 cars being delivered end of 2017 and the first few hundred cars hitting customer hands in June 2018.

 

[MassModel3]

So my money is on 5 cars being delivered end of 2017 and the first few hundred cars hitting customer hands in June 2018.

I almost agree with that, but I think it'll be more like a few hundred. Tesla needs to show that their "car for the masses" is more than just hype, and also show that they've learned from prior mistakes. Remember, they've been working on this car for a few years, and it's the primary focus for the company right now. They want these cars on the road very badly, and it'll be more than just a Model X type of rollout.

That being said, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were mostly just Founders-series or equivalent. I don't expect to to own one until 2018.

 

[JRP3]

So my money is on 5 cars being delivered end of 2017 and the first few hundred cars hitting customer hands in June 2018.

I have similar thoughts, though I think they might be able to hit slightly higher numbers since the 3 will be a much less complex vehicle to build.

 

[WarpedOne]

I really don't get it how people cannot break away from predicting the future by looking at the past. And completely ignoring the why things went as they went.
Model X was late because no-one really cared about that car. It is not in the mission statement, it is not the part of 'secret plan'. The company future does not depend on it.
It came to be just because they can make it and to double the production and deliveries of $100k cars.

Model 3 is whole another ballgame. Will be late? Maybe, but not because X was also late.

 

[JRP3]

I really don't get it how people cannot break away from predicting the future by looking at the past.

Because it's good indicator if a company consistently sets timelines it can't reach. So far Tesla has been consistent.

 

[Model 3]

Because it's good indicator if a company consistently sets timelines it can't reach. So far Tesla has been consistent.

It is correct that it is valuable to look at the history when your trying to predict the future. But it looses it's value if you blindly predict that the history has to repeat its self. You have to look at the history, and figure out why things happened the way it did, and looking ahead, see if the circumstances have changed or if the same reasons still apply.

I can not say if Model 3 will be late or not, but if it is late, it is not for the same reasons that the Roadster, Model S or Model X was delayed.

 

[JRP3]

Actually it could be for the same general reason of unrealistic expectations and/or poor planning. I'd say the Roadster, S, and X all suffered from the same problem of under estimating what it would take to get them into production.

 

[Model 3]

Actually it could be for the same general reason of unrealistic expectations and/or poor planning. I'd say the Roadster, S, and X all suffered from the same problem of under estimating what it would take to get them into production.

That is a reasonable ground for your conclusion, if you don't think anyone at Tesla (Elon) has the ability to learn of their (his) past experiences.

 

[JRP3]

I'm certainly expecting that they have learned from the past, but I also expected the same before the X launch, and they clearly had not, in fact they further compounded their earlier errors.