An interesting observation for the last 3 big down cycles in the past 1.5 years.
1) ATH @ 194 on 10/01/13, low point of down cycle @ 116 on 11/26/13, down cycle takes less than 2 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 265 on 2/26/14, up cycle takes 3 months;
2) ATH @ 265 on 02/26/14, low point of down cycle @ 177 on 05/09/14, down cycle takes 2.5 months. Then the up cycle peaked @ 291 on 09/04/14, up cycle takes 4 months;
3) ATH @ 291 on 09/04/14, assume low point of down cycle @ 185 on 01/14/15, down cycle takes 4.5 months.
Based on above observation, the down and up cycles take longer and longer because TSLA was losing mania gradually. Extrapolated from previous two down and up cycles, I guess the new ATH might be hit around 6 months from 1/14/15. It could be coincident with model X reveal and blow-out Q2 ER. Historically 291 ATH was hit with Gigafactory deal, in 2015, the model X reveal is the only major event IMO.