TSLA Investor Discussions

[Steph]

When investing, one thing I am looking for is irrationality in a large group of people.

Irrationality is your friend when you detect it and you don't let yourself get caught in the game.

Irrationals are loud mouths, they do believe very strongly they are right and no argument can change their mind until the day reality bites them where they wouldn't want to be bitten, the wallet. It's just like religion.

We've seen irrationality at it's best with the .com bubble. I knew it, didn't participate, my mistake.

Then came the US housing bubble, it's interesting to read pre-bubble blogs ( Bubble Meter )

The housing bubble is not only an American thingy, it's all over the western world, including Canada (see it unfolding here: Book and Weblog The Troubled Future of Real Estate )

I sold my house in 2008, happy renter since, will not be caught in that bubble either.

Fast forward to today, it is completly irrational to bet against Tesla, so here I am, once again, betting against irrationals.

Even today, with absolutly amazing reviews, they bring the stock down.

At this time, in my honnest opinion, the only possible outcome is: disaster.

Bite this.

 

[sp4rk]

What's your feeling about the book After shock by David Wied.emer (grammar inserts to prevent google lookup)

 

[bmek]

Are you insane?

My thinking is that there isn't a lot of downside in TSLA to the end of August and earning $1.25 is ok in a month. To lose capital will require the stock to go lower than $25.75. I am believe in TSLA and would like to take advantage of the premium with the huge volatilty that is embedded in the option price at this point. Perhaps a bit too risk adverse, but probably not insane (yet).

 

[Steph]

What's your feeling about the book After shock by David Wied.emer (grammar inserts to prevent google lookup)

You can read as many books as you want, if you can't detect irrationality, it won't help. It's very easy to get caught in the game, especially when main stream medias are on the side of the irrationals. Remember housing? Price will go up forever. Remember real-estape pumpers on TV? I do.

No book will tell you in advance what next the irrationals will do. That's why it's fun, when you know about a group irrational behavior, use it.

 

[Steph]

My thinking is that there isn't a lot of downside in TSLA to the end of August and earning $1.25 is ok in a month. To lose capital will require the stock to go lower than $25.75. I am believe in TSLA and would like to take advantage of the premium with the huge volatilty that is embedded in the option price at this point. Perhaps a bit too risk adverse, but probably not insane (yet).

Money in garbage.

 

[sp4rk]

You can read as many books as you want, if you can't detect irrationality, it won't help. It's very easy to get caught in the game, especially when main stream medias are on the side of the irrationals. Remember housing? Price will go up forever. Remember real-estape pumpers on TV? I do.

No book will tell you in advance what next the irrationals will do. That's why it's fun, when you know about a group irrational behavior, use it.

Not read it ... no intention of going beyond the online bullet points ... SCARY as hell if correct. And IRRATIONAL too. Hence my question.

 

[Steph]

Not read it ... no intention of going beyond the online bullet points ... SCARY as hell if correct. And IRRATIONAL too. Hence my question.

Just by reading bullet points, it looks like another doomer, making money on uncertainty and fear.

Lots of those being printed these days.

 

[Steph]

Not read it ... no intention of going beyond the online bullet points ... SCARY as hell if correct. And IRRATIONAL too. Hence my question.

Try this very rational book: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8973.html

This time is not different.

 

[Mycroft]

Have you read that book Steph? I found it full of data, but not very informative. At least to me. For example, it talked about countries that had hyper-inflation, but it didn't talk about how ordinary citizens coped or not with the inflation.

Back on topic, I sold my VZ stock to get some more TSLA at these great prices! Hopefully, TSLA will be much higher before the next VZ dividend and I can re-balance.

 

[Steph]

Have you read that book Steph? I found it full of data, but not very informative. At least to me. For example, it talked about countries that had hyper-inflation, but it didn't talk about how ordinary citizens coped or not with the inflation.

Back on topic, I sold my VZ stock to get some more TSLA at these great prices! Hopefully, TSLA will be much higher before the next VZ dividend and I can re-balance.

I did read this amazing book, no opinions there. Make your own.

 

[smorgasbord]

Interesting summary of today's option activity: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/content/bulls+bears+take+sides+on+tesla+motors/default.aspx?ID=112120

roughly 11,000 of these bearishly oriented options [ PUTs ] crossing the tape -- about seven times the norm. Most active was TSLA's August 27 put, where 3,382 contracts were exchanged.

...1,500 contracts overnight...Since the August 31 calls were bought and the August 35 calls were sold, this appears to have been the initiation of a long call spread on TSLA. The spread was opened for a net debit of $0.95 -- which doubles as the trader's maximum potential loss, should the stock remain south of $31 per share through front-month expiration. The ultimate goal is for the shares to finish at or above $35, which would allow the speculator to collect the maximum gain of $3.05 on the play.

 

[Iamthecaliflower]

Again I ask, what is causing this insane movement? How are analysts so ignorant of reality that they can feel this quarter and next quarters earnings bear any reflection on the company? Was half expecting a bunch of downgrades this morning from "Analysts"or perhaps I should say "Short sellers", hoping to make the stock break down below the $28 level. How can anyone make any mention of current earnings/revenue as relevant? This is as bad as suing the past 8 years as a measure for future earnings. They are not running low on cash, and are maintaining their guidance for 2012. There really ought to be laws prohibiting malicious articles, the likes of Peterson. Was really hoping Elon was going to make the surprise announcement about the Super Charge network at earnings. What happened to the big July announcement? WTH was the insane accumulation a few weeks about?

TSLA Stock | Tesla Motors Inc. Stock Downgraded (TSLA) - TheStreet

 

[mitch672]

Don't you get it? They don't care about the company "Tesla", they have already sold the stock in the $30+ range, and they are trying to "shake" the tree, and get people to sell, how else can they buy the stock back for less money, and cover their shorts? This has been going on since the beginning of companies being publicly traded, there is nothing new going on here. This is just a game to them, and ONLY about maximizing their profit. I suggest no one feed them, don't sell, starve them out. They look for ANY "bad" news (or what could be perceived as bad news) to accomplish their goal. After Tesla delivers a large number of Model S, they can become profitable fairly quickly, so they use every opportunity to make money... Watch, after they are done shorting the stock and have made money on the way down, there will be only "buy" recommendations, as they seek to maximize their upside direction, they will need buyers to sell their long positions to. It's a big game, any company with high volatility is just a vehicle for the prime brokerages to "churn and burn", it's always been this way, the trick is to go along for the ride, or stay out of the game if you don't have the stomach for it.

 

[raymond]

How are analysts so ignorant of reality that they can feel this quarter and next quarters earnings bear any reflection on the company?

From the TheStreet page (emphasis mine):

TheStreet ratings do not represent the views of TheStreet's staff or its contributors. Ratings are established by computer based on metrics for performance (which includes growth, stock performance, efficiency and valuation) and risk (volatility and solvency). Companies with poor cash flow or high debt levels tend to earn lower ratings in our model.

Computers don't know that Tesla has been investing in and setting up a production line for a Model S, etc.

 

[Steph]

Again I ask, what is causing this insane movement? How are analysts so ignorant of reality that they can feel this quarter and next quarters earnings bear any reflection on the company? Was half expecting a bunch of downgrades this morning from "Analysts"or perhaps I should say "Short sellers", hoping to make the stock break down below the $28 level. How can anyone make any mention of current earnings/revenue as relevant? This is as bad as suing the past 8 years as a measure for future earnings. They are not running low on cash, and are maintaining their guidance for 2012. There really ought to be laws prohibiting malicious articles, the likes of Peterson. Was really hoping Elon was going to make the surprise announcement about the Super Charge network at earnings. What happened to the big July announcement? WTH was the insane accumulation a few weeks about?

TSLA Stock | Tesla Motors Inc. Stock Downgraded (TSLA) - TheStreet

Thank-you for being such a good sample of the histeric population.

 

[Steph]

From the TheStreet page (emphasis mine):



Computers don't know that Tesla has been investing in and setting up a production line for a Model S, etc.

Computers: Dumb as chickens.

I have both computers and chickens, both need reboots.

 

[Steph]

Volume back to a normal pace, price up.

Where did the sellers go?

 

[Mycroft]

The analysts saying that revenues are less than expected is asinine at this point. If the company was selling cars at the rate of 20,000 and the revenues were less than expected, then it might make some kind of sense. I just wish I had more money to invest in TSLA at this price level.

 

[Steph]

I just wish I had more money to invest in TSLA at this price level.

Ditto.

 

[Steph]

Today is the 27th.

It's official.

I was wrong.

(They don't like beer)