TSLA Investor Discussions

[smorgasbord]

Citizen-T, Production ramp-up probably won't happen in Sept. and Q3 earnings will be announced in Oct, so I'd be a bit concerned about lack of news to push the stock higher by then. I hear what you're saying about Supercharger, but I don't see that as a stock price booster. TSLA might just track the market for a little while. And the way Musk and Ahuja sounded on the call, they will be doing some kind of capital raise later this year or early next. My guess is they'll try to combine the raise announcement with a production achieved announcement, so maybe Jan. Just guessing here, of course.

FWIW, looks like we might be able to do a split synthetic long at Jan '14 for close to even at $28 for the Call and $25 for the Put. Depending on how conservative you are, that's pretty nice downside protection at $25 while still capturing all the current upside from $28.

 

[ckessel]

I guess some investors start to lose their patience in TSLA, expecting the stock to keep rocketing up...

The stock is the same price it was 20 months ago. It hasn't exactly been rocketing. Roller coastering perhaps.

 

[Citizen-T]

Citizen-T, Production ramp-up probably won't happen in Sept. and Q3 earnings will be announced in Oct, so I'd be a bit concerned about lack of news to push the stock higher by then. I hear what you're saying about Supercharger, but I don't see that as a stock price booster. TSLA might just track the market for a little while. And the way Musk and Ahuja sounded on the call, they will be doing some kind of capital raise later this year or early next. My guess is they'll try to combine the raise announcement with a production achieved announcement, so maybe Jan. Just guessing here, of course.

FWIW, looks like we might be able to do a split synthetic long at Jan '14 for close to even at $28 for the Call and $25 for the Put. Depending on how conservative you are, that's pretty nice downside protection at $25 while still capturing all the current upside from $28.

Agree with you 100%, but mostly I'm just trying to capture the spring higher because I believe we are oversold. It's not so much a call on some stock moving events, though QE3 and Supercharger event wouldn't hurt. Whatever I buy, I don't really intend to hold it to expiration. I'm just trying to leverage up to extract some cash out of a short term move, then I'm going to use that to buy more shares when the price is right.

At least, that's the plan.

 

[Steph]

I really have no idea how bright the short-sellers are. The only "hope" they have of winning on their shorts is Tesla failing to start repaying the loan in December and a downward spiral from there on. From a distance Tesla is still a software company attempting to make cars, and the odds at success based on that are next to zero.

Most short-sellers spend an hour or so analyzing a stock; they don't watch Elon's every talk, don't see what Elon's done to SpaceX, and can't imagine that the world is changing rapidly in one where a car *is* for a large part a software product.

Only when TSLA starts making a profit will they finally believe what they see.

There are people who make thing happen, people who see things happening, and those who wonder what the h*ll just happened.

I think we can all find examples of each of those categories!

+1

But at the moment they realize they are wrong, it's a domino effect, almost immediate.

One good example, when everyone realized the US real estate market was unsustainable, the reaction was brutal, all sales stopped at the same moment.

They realized there were no more greater fools who believe an asset class would go up forever.

We have the same bubble in Canada, it is bursting now. Sales have brutally stopped beginning of July. You should read and hear the comments on Canadian real estate boards, clearly in denial phase. Fear is here, blood is already flowing.

Same will happen with the shorts. They cannot imagine a world whitout oil, just like they don't realize a house is not an ATM

 

[smorgasbord]

Agree with you 100%, but mostly I'm just trying to capture the spring higher because I believe we are oversold.

I just sold some Mar $20 Puts for $2.45. That's for a $17.55 stock price break-even! Shorts are in full force today and stock is trying to stay above $28.

 

[Citizen-T]

I just sold some Mar $20 Puts for $2.45. That's for a $17.55 stock price break-even! Shorts are in full force today and stock is trying to stay above $28.

Wow. I would love to meet the person that bought those. I mean, seriously? $17.55? In March? I've got a bridge I'd like to talk to that guy about...

 

[smorgasbord]

I mean, seriously? $17.55? In March?

Yeah, it did kind of feel like taking candy from a baby - hard to decide how much to really take.

I'm still tempted on the Syn Long LEAP. Based on Bid/Ask a Jan '14 $28 combo will PAY you $1.45. That's a break-even of $26.55, with unlimited upside and downside from there during the next 17 months. Really hard to resist someone paying me to bet on Tesla with a zero point of $26.55....

 

[NigelM]

Anyone else looking at cash flow and balance sheet? I see an additional $21m in reservation payments during the 3 months and at $5k a pop that would be ~4k reservations......? Just wondering where those 4k reservations are.

 

[Johan]

Anyone else looking at cash flow and balance sheet? I see an additional $21m in reservation payments during the 3 months and at $5k a pop that would be ~4k reservations......? Just wondering where those 4k reservations are.

Some could be Model X sigs (10x a normal reservation)

 

[brianman]

If you think $28 is underpriced today, the company will survive to 2014, and that it will stay flat or go up between now and then:
January 2014 puts @ $28/share have an $8.30 premium

 

[Steph]

Market is up.

TSLA is down another two and a half point.

The end of the world is coming.

Edit: (Just realize we are in 2012 and December is coming soon)

 

[NigelM]

Some could be Model X sigs (10x a normal reservation)

I thought of that but then the Model X tally must be waaaay off. Even if there's 100 extra X-Sigs in Q2 that's still only the equivalent of 1,000 reservations at $5k plus the 1,500 announced Model S reservations at $5k....that's nowhere near $21m. What are we missing?

(BTW, isn't an X-Sig reservation $40k?)

 

[raymond]

Same will happen with the shorts.

Do we realize that the number of shorts is more than 50%(!) of the float? If that 50% needs to be covered in a few days (or in a single day?), the rise in volume would be staggering! Quite a few people are in this for the long run, so I wonder if it would be at all possible to cover that larger a float!

The number of shares for sale I estimate to be significantly less than the official float because I expect shareholders (companies) to have bought TSLA for strategic reasons and not just for the money.

I can't find any historical examples of short squeezes on companies with such a high short/float ratio. I'd love to see how such a squeezes would play out. Anyone?

 

[Johan]

I thought of that but then the Model X tally must be waaaay off. Even if there's 100 extra X-Sigs in Q2 that's still only the equivalent of 1,000 reservations at $5k plus the 1,500 announced Model S reservations at $5k....that's nowhere near $21m. What are we missing?

(BTW, isn't an X-Sig reservation $40k?)

You're right, ot doesn't add up... And yes the sign is only x 8

 

[Steph]

so I wonder if it would be at all possible to cover that larger a float!

Not whithout emptying the ask bin, I'm on the bottom of that bin.

 

[Johan]

Not whithout emptying the ask bin, I'm on the bottom of that bin.

$500/share right?

 

[smorgasbord]

January 2014 puts @ $28/share have an $8.30 premium

I don't feel that's enough premium for the time span. You're talking tying up money (or margin buying power) for 17 months. I'd prefer to do something like the Jan '13 $26 Puts for $4.10. That's half the payout, but only 1/3 the time. Assuming they expire worthless, we're talking an over 32% annualized return with a stock price break-even of $21.90.

My thinking going with the LEAPs is for the Synthetic Long - The Puts pay for the Calls and you get to capture all the upside that might happen during the next 18 months with no upfront costs (actually, they'll pay you to get in!). Puts either get you some fixed cash or buying the stock more cheaply, but you miss out if the stock takes off.

 

[Steph]

I can't find any historical examples of short squeezes on companies with such a high short/float ratio. I'd love to see how such a squeezes would play out. Anyone?

I can't find any either. We are in uncharted territory.

History in the making.

This story has the potential to be one of the greatest event in stock market history, the fun thing is, i'm in this time

 

[KBF]

I am really glad it dropped, I missed the last dip below $30. Picked up more today, and more if it drops lower. (please!) I had been down to my core position and wanted more to play with when we hit $40+ in a month or two.

 

[smorgasbord]

I can't find any historical examples of short squeezes on companies with such a high short/float ratio. I'd love to see how such a squeezes would play out. Anyone?

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