Alright, I'll bite since maybe I'm not grasping something on the Sig reservation numbers. Can you explain how the Sig drop rate would be lower than 160?
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Alright, I'll bite since maybe I'm not grasping something on the Sig reservation numbers. Can you explain how the Sig drop rate would be lower than 160?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I wasn't saying that it was a requirement that should be enforced. It was simply a request that I found reasonable. People ask that of others all the time.
Aren't there something like a thousand Sigs altogether? I'm going to throw out a totally unfounded guess that many early Sig holders chose the Sig only because those were to be the first available to the public (after the founders' series, I suppose?) and now with the time upon us, some of them (16% if the 160 number is accurate) may have decided that after all they'd rather wait a bit longer and pay a lot less for a car with fewer options, many of which they may not want, and/or consider too expensive. I figure a no-frills Model S with the 85 kWh pack is around $20,000 less than a Sig, and while some (the majority at 84%, again if the 160 number is right) feel it's worth it, a few could be expected to save the twenty big ones and still have a luxurious 300-mile EV. And it's to be expected that a few people would find themselves in worse financial condition than when they placed their reservations, and have been forced to downgrade or drop out entirely.
So I think some downgrades from Sig are to be expected, and I'll bet Tesla expected some number of them.
So I think some downgrades from Sig are to be expected, and I'll bet Tesla expected some number of them.
NigelM
Recovering Member
The Tally shows Sig numbers listed to 1,160. That is because on the Tesla Forum "Tikiman" noted that he had upgraded from the wait list to Sig #1,160. We know the original lists weren't always compressed as people moved and/or dropped out over time. As the list wasn't compressed it's certain that the numbering went over 1,000 even as the actual count was less than 1,000. This means that there might have recently been 1 cancellation/deferral or 160 of them. The TMC Tally has been useful and fun, but in total it's known to be ~10% off the official numbers Tesla quoted at the Q1 conference call.
You might be right, but IMO the 160 number is a shot in the dark; it's just that these things gain a life of their own and it's being quoted and taken as fact already by many people.
Here's an example of how things run out of control:
- One Volt (not even an electric vehicle) catches fire three weeks after a crash test
- A second volt catches fire a week after a test to simulate the first crash and coolant fluid is poured onto circuit boards
- One Roadster owner through arguably complete stupidity "bricks" his battery
Today on Jalopnik.com they wrote about Model S VIN #1 with the following snippet:
I agree with Bonnie and Nigel that this is one of those things that could have unintended consequences.
Ok, I'm still lost.
How do they get to (USA) Sig1160 without having 160 dropped reservations to free up spots? Unless they're not counting in linear order, which seems unlikely. Or they've purposefully over booked on Sigs, which also seems unlikely since there's a wait list to handle extra Sig requests.
Now, I'm not saying 160 dropped recently, just that over the course of all reservation history 160 must have dropped to support a S1160 reservation number.
How do they get to (USA) Sig1160 without having 160 dropped reservations to free up spots? Unless they're not counting in linear order, which seems unlikely. Or they've purposefully over booked on Sigs, which also seems unlikely since there's a wait list to handle extra Sig requests.
Now, I'm not saying 160 dropped recently, just that over the course of all reservation history 160 must have dropped to support a S1160 reservation number.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
They did have a block reserved at the front of the line for Roadster owners. A friend of mine, Roadster owner, switched to Sig just before they sold out & received a fairly low number. My assumption is that any non-Roadster owner would go to the end of the line.
So say they had set aside the first 400 Sig numbers, but only had 200 Roadster owners put down a Sig deposit. Then the Sig numbers would go up to 1400, because # 201-400 would be unassigned. And that would be with zero dropout.
So say they had set aside the first 400 Sig numbers, but only had 200 Roadster owners put down a Sig deposit. Then the Sig numbers would go up to 1400, because # 201-400 would be unassigned. And that would be with zero dropout.
That's a reasonable possibility, though Tesla announced "Sigs sold out" pretty much right when we say S1000 reported in the Tally thread.
The number is most likely due to churn of reservation holders; people coming and going. Statistically, 1.6% churn is not something I'd be concerned about. Now if TM had trouble selling all the Sig's that would be a different matter altogether.
160 would be 16%, but your point still stands and I agree that that as long as Tesla keeps the Sigs sold out it's not something I'm really concerned about (from a TSLA stock point of view).
NigelM
Recovering Member
People, I'd suggest that discussion on "Forum-generated" numbers should probably continue over on the other thread.
@Bonnie: Merge?
@Bonnie: Merge?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
Did you see his piece earlier today? He's already jumping on the "conversion rate is going to be really low" bandwagon. That's like 3 anti-Tesla articles in a weeks time. Seems like someone should get him a life.
NigelM
Recovering Member
CNN Money isn't much better: 9 electric car stalls, misses, and crackups
Anyone want to hazard a guess how they came up with that?!?
Anyone want to hazard a guess how they came up with that?!?
Citizen-T
Active Member
Probably referring to the fact that they discontinued the Roadster, though the way they put it is extremely misguiding as that was a calculated move that is going exactly as planned. Furthermore, Roadsters are still being sold overseas, so "halt" is surely not the right word to use.
It came from Peterson's article I bet which showed a graph of Roadster sales, of course are no longer being sold in the US. D-uh! What a bunch of whoey! We've been tracking sales numbers and know that they are averaging about 20 per day pretty consitently. These guys that write this crap should get a clue.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Well, while discussing the mythical 160 sig dropouts and such, no one seems to have said this today: OMG, the stock is up!!
The people trashing Tesla really don't care about facts. They just want to trash the company and EVs in general, and they know a large part of their audience is ignorant and lacks critical thinking skills, so they say whatever will support their viewpoint, whether it's fact, distortion, or baldface lie.
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