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The Resource Angle

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Yeah Lithium might be one of those "duh, why didn't I go in big" things. LACDF has had a heck of a run, but who knows?

I don't know anything about them or the industry in general. Couldn't tell you who the other players are. Is there a resource I should go read? A TMC investors section for lithium mining?
 
Well, this post isn't a primer on Lithium, or even a Lithium Light (that's Li-Li, for yuk-yuks).

Rather, a few points to use as what to consider when assessing Lithium as a potential investment opportunity.

1. There is very little Li, as a fraction of total mass, in a Li-ion battery
2. There is very little Li, as a fraction of its dollar input, in a Li-ion battery
3. Regardless, as of 2Q 2016, the very best electricity storage technology, by a variety of parameters, necessitates some Li. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
4. Li is concentrated mostly as evaporites or evaporite brines. These locations are present primarily in an area of contiguous Argentina, Chile and Bolivia; distantly in parts of Australia, China and Nevada.
5. There do exist other sources of Li; mostly from spodumene, which is derived with pegmatite pods, and with associated clays.
6. A private, though publicly traded - and also with traditionally extremely strong ties to the government, company in Chile is the largest player to date in Li production. This company, Soquimich (traded as SQM on the NYSE), is broadly diversified enough that even though it is the largest producer, Li is not its most important product. Thus, for SQM, Li is to some extent a by-product and at best a co-product. This enables it to have outsized importance in determining the market price for Li2CO3, the substance by which Li normally is traded.

I'll stop there - too much packing to do....
 
There have been a small number of posts today regarding the recent market price moves regarding Western Lithium.

First, the company has changed its name to America's Lithium, and its shares, which are Canadian, no longer trade in the US as WLCDF but as LACDF.

Second, at the end of March it announced a link-up with Soquimich (50/50 jv) to develop a salar in northwestern Argentina.

Third - and I didn't find this until last night - the company also announced a new board chairman - someone who was a pretty close friend of mine back in the late Oligocene. That's not going to provide me with any source of inside information, as the last time we were in touch some Macedonian named Alexander was puzzling over a knot. But it was fun to learn!
Very interesting. Can you speak about your friend's character, leadership and talent? do you trust him with your life? (Ok mabe not life but money?)
 
No, I cannot; not really.

And not because I'm under some restrictions, but because when I wrote that we were friends long ago... I mean long in terms of quite a few decades. The friend I had back then? Sure; I would have, ceteris paribus, entrusted him with a reasonable amount of investment capital. I also know enough about him to to believe he has the ability to provide ALCDF with access to needed capital, industry contacts and management expertise - as with virtually every junior, items they badly need.

Would he have been better than any other choice? I know not.

Would I hope to be able to re-kindle some association? Sure. If so, would be happy to then share what I can with others.
 
No, I cannot; not really.

And not because I'm under some restrictions, but because when I wrote that we were friends long ago... I mean long in terms of quite a few decades. The friend I had back then? Sure; I would have, ceteris paribus, entrusted him with a reasonable amount of investment capital. I also know enough about him to to believe he has the ability to provide ALCDF with access to needed capital, industry contacts and management expertise - as with virtually every junior, items they badly need.

Would he have been better than any other choice? I know not.

Would I hope to be able to re-kindle some association? Sure. If so, would be happy to then share what I can with others.
That is big, the access to capital part. And people dont change much. This helps, thanks!
 
Here is my master Lithium stock watch list for you guys, my favorites are top ones. As you can see, crazy movements today and recenty. Now if someone wants to take up the challenge to break down each company and what they own pros/cons would be great!
 

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1. There is very little Li, as a fraction of total mass, in a Li-ion battery
2. There is very little Li, as a fraction of its dollar input, in a Li-ion battery

I would be very interested in a more precise assesment of the amount of lithium in a Tesla battery. Google gives me some conflicting results and it's not always clear which is the authorative source since this is decidedly outside of my field. Also, what makes it costly to produce a batter if it isn't the lithium? Capital outlays on machinery? Other resources? Labour?
 
My understanding is that lithium is about 4% of cell weight and 2% of finished pack weight. Cell and pack costs come from cobalt, nickel copper, aluminum, and the high purity/refinement levels of all components. Also the high tech separator materials are probably not cheap.
 
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With pack prices predicted to tumble to less than $100/kWh the coming years, is it right to assume that in the current pack price of around $250 kWh very little is actually due to the cost of acquiring the composing materials but rather the assembly?
 
Most of the assembly should be automated, so I would think most of the cost is materials and their preparation.
Here is a chart from a study looking at cost reduction possibilities, it's a few years old and not Tesla/Panasonic chemistry so the actual dollar amounts aren't relevant but the general cost ratios should be similar

Cell cost chart.jpg

Article link: Prospects for reducing the processing cost of lithium ion batteries
 
One of the true but moderately misleading statements about lithium regarding lithium-ion batteries is that "there isn't much of it in them...they're mostly Ni, Co...", etc.

Again, true, but misleading. This is because Li is one of the least-dense materials in the universe (non-gaseous, of course). As it sits right at the beginning of the periodic table of elements - #3 right beyond hydrogen and helium and with an atomic mass of just 6.94 (more or less, depending on the isotopic ratio of 6-Li vs 7-Li (can't do superscripts here), elemental lithium has a density of just 0.53. It nicely floats atop water (density 1.0) then; compared to other important materials in a Li-ion battery, it is just 19.6% as dense as aluminum, 6.0% that of either nickel or cobalt, and only 5.9% as dense as copper.

So by molar amounts, there is a lot more Li in those batteries than otherwise is apparent. Nevertheless, one purchases a material not by moles, but by mass ("weight"), which is why I began this post by saying that the statements are, indeed, true. But for lithium...you get a lot of bang for your buck (or gram, as it were), in that the amount (molar amount) of 1 gram of Li is equal to, e.g., 16.9 grams of Cu.

And now it's breakfast-time.
 
New Method Of Extracting Lithium From Natural Brine Yields 99.9% Purity
Researchers at Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland recently completed work examining new methods of extracting lithium from natural brine sources — revealing that the new methods allow for an increase in the purity of the recovered lithium solution from around 95% all the way up to 99.9%.

Accomplishing such a high degree of purity through traditional methods is much more difficult and resource intensive, according to those involved.
<snip - after the first two paragraphs>
 
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Lithium War Heats Up After Epic Launch Of Tesla Model 3 | OilPrice.com

Our friends at oilprice.com are looking for the lithium lining in Tesla's Model 3. I guess the only way they can relate to it is if there is an opportunity to make money pulling something out of the ground. In any case, I am happy that miners are excited about the opportunities to build up the Gigafactory supply chain.

They're pretty stoked about how every 1% of EV market share will add demand for 70k tonnes of lithium per year. I don't have the heart to tell them that it will also displace about 40k b/d consumption of oil for 10 to 15 years.
 
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Cobalt supply overview
http://www.thecdi.com/cdi/images/documents/facts/Cobalt Facts - Supply Demand - 14.pdf

In the past, we have tried to estimate global cobalt resources in the ground, but these are continually being revised as new and richer ores seem to appear and prices change. There seems to be enough known land sources of cobalt to last for at least 100 years and for many, many more years if speculative and hypothetical resources for deep sea, ocean floor resources are taken into account (about 120million tonnes according to the USGS). So we are confident that cobalt is not running out, but its availability will depend upon many factors such as price, demand, technological development and global economic growth.
 
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Tesla almost bought Simbol Materials. They had a supposedly new way to extract lithium from brines. The whole story of the company seems rather sketchy, and some of the players are looking to resurrect operations under the name Alger Alternative Energy.
How Elon Musk's lithium search ended badly for startup

You would think that if Elon thought the Company was worth $325M two years ago then its patents and intellectual property would be worth at least $325k out of bankruptcy court. I am sure Tesla could hire some key people Simbol let go too.