The gen 4 Camry level 300+ mi range Tesla

[SteveG3]

No need to quote "Someone at Tesla":

http://www.torquenews.com/2250/musk-raises-expectations-tesla-bold-new-statements

Thanks for noticing I made an error in the comment. Ten years was indeed from Musk and came last year. Five years is what Andrea James indicated someone at Tesla told her. She wrote this a couple of months ago. Someone at Tesla told James they now expect the cost per kWh to fall below $100 in the next 5 years (she might have written "by 2020", I don't remember precisely). Fwiw I think it is very likely it came from Musk.

Update: Adding link to streetinsider coverage of James' early March report.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Buy+Rating+Maintained+at+Dougherty+Following+Factory+Tour/10348143.html

 

[wcfinvader]

We have a different perspective from most here. Where we live it's a stretch to make a supercharger in a 85. There has been a time when we arrived at a supercharger driving conservatively with just 5 rated miles left. We stretched quite far to buy this car because our old car was on it's last leg. We save at minimum $450/month on gas (Yes we drive a ton ~40,000 miles/year). Net total for car payment $550. I could go on about the savings in maintenance and even time (we spend less time sitting waiting for the car to charge than we'd spend fueling up a ice car). If there would have been a larger battery pack available we would have got it mainly to help with taper curve and to be able to drive without any range anxiety. we have minimal range anxiety now but nothing beats zero range anxiety. 300 rated miles would be equal to our old cars range on a full tank.

 

[mknox]

We have a different perspective from most here. Where we live it's a stretch to make a supercharger in a 85. There has been a time when we arrived at a supercharger driving conservatively with just 5 rated miles left. We stretched quite far to buy this car because our old car was on it's last leg. We save at minimum $450/month on gas (Yes we drive a ton ~40,000 miles/year). Net total for car payment $550. I could go on about the savings in maintenance and even time (we spend less time sitting waiting for the car to charge than we'd spend fueling up a ice car). If there would have been a larger battery pack available we would have got it mainly to help with taper curve and to be able to drive without any range anxiety. we have minimal range anxiety now but nothing beats zero range anxiety. 300 rated miles would be equal to our old cars range on a full tank.

Very similar situation here wrt the fuel savings.

Most people new to EVs are still in the gas car paradigm where you go to a special place, fuel up, drive around until it's gone and repeat. In this context, "how far does it go?" and "how long does it take to charge?" makes sense. But you don't treat an EV like that. It's more like a cell phone where you simply plug it in each evening. I get asked the above two questions so long that I swear the next time someone shows me their shiny new iPhone my comment will be "That's nice. How long does it take to charge?"

The only caveat to all this is regarding winter range. On short trips, I may use 400% more energy than in the summer, but then by definition they are "short trips" so it doesn't really matter. It does come in to play if I have to make a longer trip in winter. On longer trips, I may use 25 to 75% more energy (consumption seems to smooth out once you're cruising along) but that still takes my (somewhat degraded) 240 miles @ 100% SOC down to near half that. The last thing I need is to be stranded with no heat in significantly below freezing temperatures.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I get the whole "you leave home with a full tank of gas every day" argument, I really do, but let's not pretend everyone lives in the suburbs or has access to a downtown garage. People who own 100k+ cars? Sure. 35k? Maybe. Certainly not all of them. Will Tesla still have enough market for the Model 3? Oh, absolutely. But the "fullk tank each morning" argument is pretty silly if you want to use it as an argument for "EVs not needing more than 200 miles period". For many people a 10-20k car is all they can afford - especially outside the richest countries. No need to go 3rd world, it's enough to think outside the US, Western Europe and Japan. How many people in that price range park on the street vs. in a garage?

Now wether we will have bigger yet cheaper batteries or quickchargers at every mall/parking spot sooner, remains to be seen. But one of those needs to happen for cheaper EVs to succeed.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I get the whole "you leave home with a full tank of gas every day" argument, I really do, but let's not pretend everyone lives in the suburbs or has access to a downtown garage. People who own 100k+ cars? Sure. 35k? Maybe. Certainly not all of them. Will Tesla still have enough market for the Model 3? Oh, absolutely. But the "fullk tank each morning" argument is pretty silly if you want to use it as an argument for "EVs not needing more than 200 miles period". For many people a 10-20k car is all they can afford - especially outside the richest countries. No need to go 3rd world, it's enough to think outside the US, Western Europe and Japan. How many people in that price range park on the street vs. in a garage?

Now wether we will have bigger yet cheaper batteries or quickchargers at every mall/parking spot sooner, remains to be seen. But one of those needs to happen for cheaper EVs to succeed.

Two barriers to on-street charging: demand, will. Only when there is high demand will on-street charging happen on a wide scale. But will is a function of demand, so I think that when it happens it will happen fast.

 

[Model 3]

Five years is what Andrea James indicated someone at Tesla told her. She wrote this a couple of months ago. Someone at Tesla told James they now expect the cost per kWh to fall below $100 in the next 5 years (she might have written "by 2020", I don't remember precisely). Fwiw I think it is very likely it came from Musk.

Thanks for the update Agree on below 100$/kWh in 5 years. JB Straubel talked about "minimum 30% cost reduction, probably 50%" with the GF up and running at full production (and that would be by 2020). The latest prices I have seen is that they pay 180$/kWh, so by 2020 it will be 90$/kWh (or below) if JB is right.

 

[eloder]

I get the whole "you leave home with a full tank of gas every day" argument, I really do, but let's not pretend everyone lives in the suburbs or has access to a downtown garage. People who own 100k+ cars? Sure. 35k? Maybe. Certainly not all of them. Will Tesla still have enough market for the Model 3? Oh, absolutely. But the "fullk tank each morning" argument is pretty silly if you want to use it as an argument for "EVs not needing more than 200 miles period". For many people a 10-20k car is all they can afford - especially outside the richest countries. No need to go 3rd world, it's enough to think outside the US, Western Europe and Japan. How many people in that price range park on the street vs. in a garage?

Now wether we will have bigger yet cheaper batteries or quickchargers at every mall/parking spot sooner, remains to be seen. But one of those needs to happen for cheaper EVs to succeed.

True in some respects. The less someone makes, the less likely they'll be able to charge.

I think the affordable aspect of low fuel costs and low maintenance will make the car a more attractive buy though. I personally have a private garage I could charge in, and my current gasser MSRP is something around $13.5k brand new. My next lease is a $26k MSRP EV, and it's going to cost me the same amount of money as my current gas car to drive even ignoring maintenance costs.

I think apartments and condos will increasingly work on installing their own equipment though in order to be attractive to potential residents, especially in EV hotbed markets. Younger people are also much more likely to want an EV, more and more people are going to be "stuck" in an EV lease or with a fast-depreciating EV that would give apartments with charging capabilities much more sway for a move. It's no different than how apartment complexes now often offer amenities like swimming pools to attract buyers.

 

[Robert.Boston]

In Paris there are EV charging spots on the streets. We'll see more of that as EVs become more ubiquitous.

 

[CaptainKirk]

In Paris there are EV charging spots on the streets. We'll see more of that as EVs become more ubiquitous.

I agree, there's no doubt in my mind that this will happen. Just look at how the airports are these days with respect to smart phone and tablet charging. With the rise of those two so has the need for charging at major transportation hubs, resulting in the installation of public charging setups. Free Wifi is also fairly common these days too simply because there's a demand for it. The way I see it, it's not a question of if, but when. The how fast depends on the rate of EV adoption.

 

[Model 3]

In Paris there are EV charging spots on the streets.

And Oslo

 

[chickensevil]

The moral of the above for me is exposure. You can tell people that BeV is useful until you are blue in the face but the only way they are going to understand is by experience. WHEN Tesla needs to generate demand they will need to overcome that experience gap........ Sounds like a secret weapon to generate demand if ever I have heard of one

Wow, I give you mad props here because I think you might be onto something. This might just be the demand secret weapon. You can "borrow" a Tesla for a month as an "extended test drive". It isn't like they would be the first to think of this since you can already do this with some other brands, but it would be long enough to let people experience the car and fall in love with it.

The only thing that would be needed to make such a thing successful would be at home charging. I realize you can plug in to a 120V but that just isn't quite giving the car a fair chance.

Everything else you said is pretty spot on regarding experience. I have talked to so many people and they always have the same three questions 1: How far can it go? 2: How long does it take to charge? 3: where can I charge it? This is what needs to be overcome because the perception is that it won't meet your needs. A 200+ mile car hits most of that, but I think the easiest way to overcome that perception would be to get it comparable to gas. It might not be *needed*, but it would remove that misperception from people's minds. There are some other side benefits to getting the pack size up to handle that range.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Wow, I give you mad props here because I think you might be onto something. This might just be the demand secret weapon. You can "borrow" a Tesla for a month as an "extended test drive". It isn't like they would be the first to think of this since you can already do this with some other brands, but it would be long enough to let people experience the car and fall in love with it.

This would be a great use for CPO cars.

 

[mibaro2]

With regards to range : In my talks with ICE owners, charging and range always come up. When I show them my battery at 15%, they say "how do you know you will make it home?". My usual response it asking them it they can drive their ICE home with the gas gauge hovering on E. Which they always say they can, but it gets them thinking.
As far as charging elsewhere other than home, I am seeing more and more businesses put in chargers for their employees.

I like the idea of loaning someone an EV for a few weeks for them to "get" how an EV works. Sounds like the best way to sell an EV.

 

[Robert.Boston]

With regards to range : In my talks with ICE owners, charging and range always come up. When I show them my battery at 15%, they say "how do you know you will make it home?". My usual response it asking them it they can drive their ICE home with the gas gauge hovering on E. Which they always say they can, but it gets them thinking.

One thing that Tesla completely nailed is the accuracy of the gauges (when the battery pack is fully warmed). The error band around the State of Charge is very narrow. We're all used to fuel tank gauges that have so much slop - does E mean empty or that I'm down to my last gallon or two?

 

[Krugerrand]

One thing that Tesla completely nailed is the accuracy of the gauges (when the battery pack is fully warmed). The error band around the State of Charge is very narrow. We're all used to fuel tank gauges that have so much slop - does E mean empty or that I'm down to my last gallon or two?

....the bottom half of the tank is bigger than the top half...

 

[Buddyroe]

With regards to range : In my talks with ICE owners, charging and range always come up. When I show them my battery at 15%, they say "how do you know you will make it home?". My usual response it asking them it they can drive their ICE home with the gas gauge hovering on E. Which they always say they can, but it gets them thinking.
As far as charging elsewhere other than home, I am seeing more and more businesses put in chargers for their employees.

I like the idea of loaning someone an EV for a few weeks for them to "get" how an EV works. Sounds like the best way to sell an EV.

Well, I am adamantly opposed to buying an EV. Why don't you let me borrow yours for a few weeks and I'll see if I can be convinced.

 

[mibaro2]

Well, I am adamantly opposed to buying an EV. Why don't you let me borrow yours for a few weeks and I'll see if I can be convinced.

I couldn't take that honor away from Lolachampcar who thought of the idea first.:smile:

 

[dirkhh]

I couldn't take that honor away from Lolachampcar who thought of the idea first.:smile:

And he has multiple Model S, so he won't even notice if one is gone for a few weeks... :-D

 

[Tesloid]

2012 -- Model S (Luxury Full-Size Sedan): Cd = 0.24 & Curb Weight = 4,600lbs to 4,800lbs
2018 -- Model 3 (Luxury Mid-Size Sedan): Cd = 0.20 & Curb Weight = 3,600lbs to 3,800lbs -- estimate based on "20% smaller than Model S" claims (I know, it doesn't have to mean in weight, but let's speculate)
2024 -- Model C (Luxury Compact/Coupe): Cd = 0.20 & Curb Weight = 2,900lbs to 3,100lbs -- estimate based on "20% smaller than Model 3" assumption (Again, let's speculate)

Now, Model S 70kWh pack achieved 240 EPA miles. Using above assumptions, and crunching a few numbers, we could conservatively expect a Model 3 55kWh pack to achieve the same 240 EPA miles.
Expecting reasonable progress in battery/drivetrain technology by 2024, I can easily see a Model C 50 kWh pack pushing 280 - 300 EPA miles.

My expectations for the 2024 Model C :love:

 

[gene]

I like the idea of loaning someone an EV for a few weeks for them to "get" how an EV works. Sounds like the best way to sell an EV.

I have actually been thinking to purchase a Leaf as a loaner to friends and friends of friends. I figured to let them use it for week, I am sure they'd be hooked after that point. I went so far as to go to a dealer to buy a 2015 Leaf in December, but the run around and misrepresentation of the actual price in the advertisements pissed me off and I left. I'm going to give it a go again in a couple of months. The other choices such as Spark EV and 500E are too small (people will think EV's have to be small), the eGolf and Kia too expensive for me to buy as a loaner. So the Leaf seems to me to be the best contender for a full 4 door, 5 seater, with some cargo space at a low price.