Our next vehicle is still an X though.
Well done for rising above it and not giving into peer pressure.
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Our next vehicle is still an X though.
Speaking of which. I occasionally check to see if there are any new superchargers in Chile. There are still zero. That surprises me as I thought with the building of a showroom there it was an indication of a future or new market. Thoughts?
I am bewildered by this one, especially since they could cover the entire country with a dozen or so Superchargers. A long-narrow country is not difficult.
I have given up trying to read every post but, it seems to me that the "firing" of 500 SC workers is nothing more than an evolution from an employee-based workforce to local contractors- based workforce. Just another lowering of COGS and other operational costs. All good.Why do you think the FSD tracker is flawed? (I also partially share this thought, but always curious to get another perspective)
But as a broader point, if Tesla is just about to turn the switch on a robotaxi moneymaking fleet, with 25B in the bank, what's the logic behind antagonizing and demoralizing a good part of your workforce, just as you need everyone at their top of their game for a succesul launch? Unless it's not close to being solved and they need those 25B as runway... Food for thought.
Yep. Around here we have lots of people considering an EV for their next vehicle. We often get asked questions. Even offer a test drive. But it stops there because although they are sure they will be buying an EV next it definitely won’t be a Tesla because of Elon. It’s just the way it is now.
Any idea how the low cost financing will affect earnings?Delivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.
They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.
The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.
It will be interesting to see what the financial modelers spit out, but I would imagine automotive earnings will nearly be flat QoQ.
In addition, I think there is the realization happening that FSD subscription increases won't be helping the company financially for quite a while. The 50% cut in FSD subscription prices means that subscriptions will need to double just to make back the money lost from the price cut on current subscribers. FSD subscriptions will need to triple or quadruple probably to even have any real subtle effect on EPS. Not happening for a year at least, and that would be if the FSD gets really good, near robotaxi level.
With Megapack growth capacity stalled until 2025 (meaning no huge further gains until 2026) and Semi delayed, we are essentially now waiting to see what net income can be derived from a fully ramped Cybertruck line as the main contributor to incremental earnings in the next 12 months.
For Q4 if I assume a $80k ASP for 3,000 Cybertrucks / week with 20% operating margins, I get about 600 million in operational income (before taxes). So maybe $0.15 in incremental EPS from Cybertruck.
With costs going down from layoffs and some projects slowing and some additional Megapack revenue, maybe we could get a $0.2 to $0.25 increase in EPS by Q4. Maybe $0.6 or $0.7.
If we can, maybe the market will model $3.5 in EPS in 2025. With a forward PE of say 50, we would get $175 target share price, which coincidentally is near where we are today.
So I think the stock may oscillate around this price +/- 20% depending on sentiment until we get information that would materially affect earnings projections in 2025.
Tesla introduced 0% financing in China on 4/24, and the 2 weeks since, 4/22-5/5, showed the highest sales (weekly insurance regs) for weeks 4-5 in all recent quarters, after wks 1-3 got off to the worst start of any recent quarters. Q2 week 5 has China's Labor holiday, and they're doing much better this year compared with how much it dropped off last year. Roland Pircher has a good visualization on thisDelivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.
They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.
The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.
....
PSA - if you’re making periodic payments with TDAmeritrade, you need to set them up anew with Schwab.Great reminder, thanks. Also save/export studies and any other customizations. Hopefully Monday goes smoothly.
I’m sad to see the TD mobile app go, I prefer it over the TOS mobile app since it has larger typefaces and served my needs very well the last several years. Now I’ll need to get used to the TOS mobile app.
Change all around.
Delivery information coming in so far for first halve of Q2 is showing demand weakness again. There is data from China, Europe, and VIN data in the U.S. indicated deliveries are definitely going to be way behind 2023 Q2.
They also will be only a little better than Q1. There really at this point should be no more conjecture that "supply chain issues" explained the low deliveries in Q1. It's just simply incorrect.
The demand issue seems further validated by Tesla introducing low interest rate financing.
It will be interesting to see what the financial modelers spit out, but I would imagine automotive earnings will nearly be flat QoQ.
In addition, I think there is the realization happening that FSD subscription increases won't be helping the company financially for quite a while. The 50% cut in FSD subscription prices means that subscriptions will need to double just to make back the money lost from the price cut on current subscribers. FSD subscriptions will need to triple or quadruple probably to even have any real subtle effect on EPS. Not happening for a year at least, and that would be if the FSD gets really good, near robotaxi level.
With Megapack growth capacity stalled until 2025 (meaning no huge further gains until 2026) and Semi delayed, we are essentially now waiting to see what net income can be derived from a fully ramped Cybertruck line as the main contributor to incremental earnings in the next 12 months.
For Q4 if I assume a $80k ASP for 3,000 Cybertrucks / week with 20% operating margins, I get about 600 million in operational income (before taxes). So maybe $0.15 in incremental EPS from Cybertruck.
With costs going down from layoffs and some projects slowing and some additional Megapack revenue, maybe we could get a $0.2 to $0.25 increase in EPS by Q4. Maybe $0.6 or $0.7.
If we can, maybe the market will model $3.5 in EPS in 2025. With a forward PE of say 50, we would get $175 target share price, which coincidentally is near where we are today.
So I think the stock may oscillate around this price +/- 20% depending on sentiment until we get information that would materially affect earnings projections in 2025.
Elon's mean tweets are irritating potential customers and hurting sales. All my friends say this.
Only 2% or less people read or follow twitter and as such it is an utter PR failure for Musk's messages.
Same people. Different threads.
As a developer/builder, I define 'started' as breaking ground, as in permit in permit box on site, contractor hired, all ducks in a row and physically moving dirt and starting actual physical building. As does the whole construction/development profession.
'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.
It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.
So are you advocating for Tesla to do something that most on the thread laughed about OEMs doing? If Tesla moves to have a dealer network is that great or ?Tesla introduced 0% financing in China on 4/24, and the 2 weeks since, 4/22-5/5, showed the highest sales (weekly insurance regs) for weeks 4-5 in all recent quarters, after wks 1-3 got off to the worst start of any recent quarters. Q2 week 5 has China's Labor holiday, and they're doing much better this year compared with how much it dropped off last year. Roland Pircher has a good visualization on this
People might follow Elon, but that doesnt mean they are obsessively following every press release by Tesla. If Tesla introduce a new color for the model Y, or a new trim, or there is a new report about the efficiency of cybertruck, Elon can tweet and ensure everyone following him hears about it. That has huge value.I think advertising is more complex than this. Right off the bat, probably most of those views on Elon’s posts are people who actively follow him and they are less likely to need advertising or clarification/defence in the first place.
That’s like going into Red Lobster and shouting about endless shrimp to all the people already sitting in the restaurant.
Re: 'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.As a developer/builder, I define 'started' as breaking ground, as in permit in permit box on site, contractor hired, all ducks in a row and physically moving dirt and starting actual physical building. As does the whole construction/development profession.
'Started' doesn't mean, 'planing', 'permits submitted', 'developing', 'permitted', 'support from the Gov.', etc.
It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.
@DarkandStormy
You may also want to read the left side of the Y axis. Note that the cumulative trials (of whatever data sample was pulled) reaches nearly 3,500. 20% conversion rate would be ~700. 2% would be ~70. Where's that dark bar showing cumulative conversions? Oh yeah, nowhere near 700.
I'll take an apology and a reversal of your serial downvoting of all my posts.
Yup thats exactly what I said isn't it. Amazing analysis.According to Cliff, advertising and PR need only be done via Twitter via the same account that shitposts all kinds of other crazy
It's not like Elon doesn't have a history of telling lies like these to pump the stock.
No idea. In the old days it was rare to have to convince someone to go tesla. It was THE brand. Now it’s just the opposite. As long as they have access to the supercharger network they don’t care. So I usually just recommend ford then as they are available everywhere here and with lots of selection. A few have bought, they seem happy with their purchase. They have been buying the A2Z adapter so they can use the superchargers. They are still waiting for the ford adapter.When someone says they won't get a Tesla because of Elon, the next question I ask them is this: "If Elon had a grabber today and the succession plan was put into place, would Tesla the company immediately stop being evil?"
On top of that now Tesla is offering 0% financing. The oldest trick in the OEM database of ways to drive sales. The other things are still there, price cuts, FSD deals, etc. Now 0% money when interest is not 0%. Free FSD transfer or supercharging is one thing, this is new. What does this do to q3 sales?The demand in 2023 was artificially high due to an endless stream of promotions, from inventory discounts to fsd transfers and even free supercharging transfers. I’m not even mentioning lower prices. I was one of the persons incentivized by free supercharging transfer to buy 1 or 2 quarters (maybe even longer) earlier than planned.
The public needs to learn that there is no point anymore to wait for end of quarter promotions. Then demand will stabilize at whatever it is. For now, demand is lower because of all the people fished out of the pool of potential buyers earlier than planned.
Hi, MP3Mike --We don't know that for sure. They could have a deal with a finance company to split the costs of the interest rate discount.
Does that help understand why no Superchargers? It is odd, especially because Santiago de Chile has one of the world’s largest municipal electric bus fleets, perhaps the largest one outside China;Might be helpful, Tesla was trying to get mining operations for lithium in Chile years ago.
The cost of green energy: lithium mining’s impact on nature and people
The head of the environmental unit of the Atacama Indigenous Council, Francis Mandoca, describes lithium mining as unsustainablewww.mining-technology.com
Edit: Also -
Tesla lobbying to secure lithium from Chile — report
Tesla executives held talks with the ministers of foreign affairs and mining, as well as with the leader of the development agency Corfo.www.mining.com
And
Chile plans to nationalize its vast lithium industry
Chile's President Gabriel Boric said he would nationalize the country's lithium industry, the world's second largest producer of the metal essential in electric vehicle batteries.www.reuters.com