Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[alexxs88]

He did, but obviously Troy knows better than Elon what is happening, and what is planned for the rest of the year.

There were people commenting on Troy's Patreon how Elon's track record on delivery estimates is so much worse than Troy's. Referring to same year estimates.

 

[samppa]

out here, IONITY charges 0,79 €/kWh.
Tesla superchargers peak rates are 0,41 €/kWh.
So nobody uses Ionity, apart from some mercedes owners who get a cheaper rate tied into car purchase..

So I would not trust oems to build any viable chargers.

 

[FreqFlyer]

My speculation is that SC stations were being built at locations not very well thought out, resulting in poor utilization which triggered Elon's termination code. We recently got a brand new 16 stall station located in a dead mall's parking lot (shady part of town). I have been monitoring the place and the utilization is very poor while an 8 stall station 5 miles down is packed. Local FB group has commentors stating the station is a dumb location and warned others to be careful, not to get robbed while charging. So when there's too much expansion too fast, we end up getting these duds that cost the company millions of dollars. So I think he will get his new team or whoever is left to fully study the data and expand where there's a need and pick new locations more carefully.

Agreed, some of the locations in Oakland.................

 

[FreqFlyer]

Not sure of the validity but there are already reports of installation contracters who have no one to contact, no phones getting answered, stop work orders etc. I think it’s going to be an interesting ride.

Hope this is not true, gives the impression this move was not as thought out as some believe.

 

[MD70]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785496161820053822

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla will likely prove the system, much like Waymo does, in a geofenced area with remote drivers that can intervene when necessary.

Remote monitors (not drivers) don't "intervene". They respond to requests from the vehicle, approve the suggested path or specify a new one. Sometimes they do more harm than good.

The difference is, Tesla's system costs a fraction of Waymo's ~$150k pricetag per vehicle. Tesla's solution is then easily scalable, whereas Waymo is not.

Waymo is moving from Jag to Zeekr and cheaper lidar. They indicated the Gen 5 Jag was ~100k so look for Gen 6 Zeekr to be 50-60k. That's 5-6 cents/mile spread over Musk's million mile life. Scaling issues are caused by the remote monitors, roadside assistance and other recurring costs, not vehicle upfront cost.

The other scaling problem is poor business models. Musk is a vastly more entrepreneurial and promotional than anyone at Waymo. This is Tesla's advantage.

 

[Singuy]

There were people commenting on Troy's Patreon how Elon's track record on delivery estimates is so much worse than Troy's. Referring to same year estimates.

Elon hit his target for 2020 even with shut downs, exceeded his targets for 2021 and 22, and hit his target for 23. He also guided 2020 target of 500k from 2014.

He had a few misses, but surely not as of late.

 

[SPadival]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785496161820053822

Best to check his updated bio before posting

Edit 04/30/2024: Now a professional sh**post account. F*** Elon "Newsfeed" Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785496155700478368

"sTaRlInK Is a (CoMpArAtIvElY) sImPlE PrOdUcT"

 

[Singuy]

Not sure of the validity but there are already reports of installation contracters who have no one to contact, no phones getting answered, stop work orders etc. I think it’s going to be an interesting ride.

Remember the histeria after Elon fired 80% of the people at twitter. People were saying how people had to be un-fired, servers were hours away from going down, lots of left wing celebs were saying their goodbyes...the entire world was laughing at Elon for not knowing wtf he was doing.

Somehow with 25% of the staff, twitter still works 1.5 years later.

 

[Matias]

We know this was a financial move of some sort............ let's go with that. The post on that LinkedIn from a fellow Tesla laid-off employee, Mr. Bahadue of the same team is a gut check.

William Navarro Jameson on LinkedIn: Same, same! Thanks George Bahadue for articulating what I'm struggling to…

Same, same! Thanks George Bahadue for articulating what I'm struggling to put into words at the moment. I can't help but also feel some overwhelming sense of…

www.linkedin.com

These former employees not only believed in the "mission" but worked their butts off to make it happen. What the Super Charger network has grown into will always be a testament to this hard-working team.

I'm perplexed. The SC network is Tesla's biggest differentiator.

 

[MD70]

Best to check his updated bio before posting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785496155700478368

"sTaRlInK Is a (CoMpArAtIvElY) sImPlE PrOdUcT"

In the context of supercharger deployment his statement is correct.
Updated bio is irrelevant to the facts.

Even if no new ones are built the existing ones under construction need Tesla staff dealing with all the issues as they are installed.
So the upshot is other Tesla staff with no experience of this work are going to have to deal with it.

From a purely practical perspective it is complete madness to let go of the whole team at once.

 

[SPadival]

In the context of supercharger deployment his statement is correct.
Updated bio is irrelevant to the facts.

Even if no new ones are built the existing ones under construction need Tesla staff dealing with all the issues as they are installed.
So the upshot is other Tesla staff with no experience of this work are going to have to deal with it.

From a purely practical perspective it is complete madness to let go of the whole team at once.

Starlink is literally rocket science and earth orbit is the largest real estate there is that is accessible to mankind. The guy is obviously s*** posting like he said

The same process has happened 2 other times - Recently when he fired 80% of Twitter and before that when he announced the closure of all Tesla showrooms/galleries & move to an online only sales model. Everyone at the time announced that the sky was falling.

He probably has a skeletal staff and he’ll rehire the people who are exceptional/dedicated/crazy/trustworthy enough to come back.

 

[Matias]

Back in 2018, Musk announced at an earnings call that Tesla would be closing all galleries and moving to a strictly online sales model. It felt impulsive and abrupt. Musk would reverse that decision within a few weeks.

And it was funny how everyone here first praised his decision which he then reversed. I expect the same now.

 

[NicoV]

out here, IONITY charges 0,79 €/kWh.
Tesla superchargers peak rates are 0,41 €/kWh.
So nobody uses Ionity, apart from some mercedes owners who get a cheaper rate tied into car purchase..

So I would not trust oems to build any viable chargers.

Our government has pushed for fast chargers with a lot of incentives. The end result is that there are fast chargers everywhere. I count at least 20 locations in the immediate (let’s say 5 to 10 minutes drive) neighbourhood of my local highway exit. They all charge around 0,85 €/kWh. They are also regularly used so I presume reliability is not much of an issue anymore.
So the Supercharger moat is already gone here, in the sense that availability is not an issue anymore.
The biggest advantage of the SUC network currently are the cheap prices.
Tesla probably needs a lot of stalls per site to make the cheap prices work, so maybe this is the direction Elon wants to go.
The MSM still shouts that there are not enough chargers.
Other countries may be 1 or 2 years behind in fast charger penetration.

 

[Buckminster]

I speculate that there’s a lot of speculation in this thread, none of it based on fact and all of it based on speculation. And I speculate people will get riled up, thinking their own speculation or the speculation of someone else is correct, and love or hate or embrace or fear it, when the reality is that most of the speculation is probably 90% more dramatic than reality.

Hence why I try to move the discussion to other threads...

 

[alexxs88]

The same process has happened 2 other times - Recently when he fired 80% of Twitter and before that when he announced the closure of all Tesla showrooms/galleries & move to an online only sales model. Everyone at the time announced that the sky was falling.

He probably has a skeletal staff and he’ll rehire the people who are exceptional/dedicated/crazy/trustworthy enough to come back.

We know that he was forced to do this with Twitter because they were bleeding cash. It's less efficient from an operational perspective to fire the entire team and then rehire than it is to do a proper analysis of who needs to go and who should stay, even if it might mean paying for useless staff for another 3-6-9 months while the analysis is being performed.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah, everyone continue armchair quarterbacking about how to run a business profitably and get stuff done.

Teach Elon the way, he has a really poor track record at running profitable businesses.

 

[Ellec]

In the context of supercharger deployment his statement is correct.
Updated bio is irrelevant to the facts.

Even if no new ones are built the existing ones under construction need Tesla staff dealing with all the issues as they are installed.
So the upshot is other Tesla staff with no experience of this work are going to have to deal with it.

From a purely practical perspective it is complete madness to let go of the whole team at once.

Cmon Starlink is a satellite constellation while Superchargers are basically fancy electric outlets there is no comparison in terms of product complexity.

 

[Ellec]

Yeah, everyone continue armchair quarterbacking about how to run a business profitably and get stuff done.

Teach Elon the way, he has a really poor track record at running profitable businesses.

Exactly, the reason I invest in Tesla is I trust Elon and his team to do what's best for Tesla as a company and the overall mission, based on previous results of this and other companies he runs, im 100% confident with that.

There are probably only a handful of people in the world that could do what he has accomplished. He has almost a perfect balance of Tech, Engineering, Business and Software skills as well as integrity and honesty in my view, he is not perfect of course and admits this and course corrects quickly when proven wrong.

 

[alexxs88]

Teach Elon the way, he has a really poor track record at running profitable businesses.

I know you were being sarcastic, but, as a guess, >70% of the quarters he was in charge of A business, have been on negative profit.