Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I've never been in a Waymo, but don't they only allow access to the back seat and passengers have no access to the driver seat?

Waymo allows passenger front seat access as well, at least in Gen5 vehicles from what I have seen.

Why do you think Tesla couldn't keep the driver's door locked? (It is electronic, so they can program it any way they want.)

 

[EVMeister]

IMHO this thread is for everyone interested in investing in Tesla. Everyone draws their own conclusions from the discussion and info shared, and you don´t disqualify yourself from participating by selling part or all of your holdings along the way, be it for personal reasons or because it seems more profitable at the time.

You could actually turn the argument around: if you plan to hold forever anyway (the perfect hodler/bull that seems to be a kind of ideal for some), why do you need the discussion and info from here?! As well as renewing your faith in Tesla if you are already a holder the contents here could convince people to buy more or buy back in after dumping.

Yeah, but that didn't apply in this case. It was crystal clear the guy had no interest in investing in Tesla. Their only purpose here was to berate, troll and annoy. They were not a useful asset to this thread or forum. Thankfully we have been (temporarily?) relieved of their presence.

 

[Mengy]

IMHO this thread is for everyone interested in investing in Tesla. Everyone draws their own conclusions from the discussion and info shared, and you don´t disqualify yourself from participating by selling part or all of your holdings along the way, be it for personal reasons or because it seems more profitable at the time.

Sure, but when someone comes along and repeatedly states he is always correct while others are completely wrong, don't understand, and are just plain stupid, well that sort of behavior isn't adding anything to the discussion. Especially when some of the egotist's statements are easily refuted with facts yet he isn't willing to admit he could ever be incorrect.

 

[Gigapress]

So all this talk of a two-seater reminded me of this:

View attachment 1036709

Context? When and where was this photo taken?

Many things are not (fully) functional at unveilings, from lots of manufacturers of different things.

Apple's famous 2007 unveiling presentation for the original iPhone was like this. Steve Jobs' demo of the prototype phone was carefully scripted to ensure that the bugs didn't cause a failure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/magazine/and-then-steve-said-let-there-be-an-iphone.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0&pagewanted=all

Even though the iPhone wouldn’t go on sale for another six months, [Jobs] wanted the world to want one right then. In truth, the list of things that still needed to be done was enormous. A production line had yet to be set up. Only about a hundred iPhones even existed, all of them of varying quality. Some had noticeable gaps between the screen and the plastic edge; others had scuff marks on the screen. And the software that ran the phone was full of bugs.

The iPhone could play a section of a song or a video, but it couldn’t play an entire clip reliably without crashing. It worked fine if you sent an e-mail and then surfed the Web. If you did those things in reverse, however, it might not. Hours of trial and error had helped the iPhone team develop what engineers called “the golden path,” a specific set of tasks, performed in a specific way and order, that made the phone look as if it worked.

During the Microsoft presentation of Windows 98, it crashed with the Blue Screen of Death during the live demo.

Boeing rolled out the 787 Dreamliner in 2007 to great fanfare, but was hiding the fact that it was a basically a half-built shell of an aircraft with no systems installed and some of the structure held together by fasteners bought from Home Depot.

The ‘fake’ Boeing 787 rollout

As Boeing rolled out its ‘Dreamliner’ to experts and journalists, under the surface not all was as it seemed.

www.aljazeera.com

All of these products ended up being extremely popular with customers in the long run.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

The massive jump in TAM resulting from the price adjustments to M3 and MY from 2021 to present. When the FED loosens its reigns on interest rates, demand will be robust. This may be one reason why Tesla is deciding to prioritize Robotaxis, because M3 and MY are already priced in a range that over 25% of the US population can access. Keep in mind, if you price in the tax credit, over 50% of the US is in play. The "soft demand" thesis can't argue with facts like these.
View attachment 1036730

Even after adjusted for interest rates, the Model 3 and Y are already more affordable by thousands of dollars than they were 2 years ago. The TAM for each should have at least doubled. And yet they are still slashing inventory prices. They delivered less cars than a year ago while the cars are more affordable! Demand is obviously soft.

Of course, interest rate cuts will help.

 

[elasalle]

How many FSD miles by 8/8 ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777183378434932926

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

I don’t know. It’s super common in Europe. Around here all the ride shares are compacts.

 

[hobbes]

Got a feelgood post for everyone, think we need it

Do you remember TeslaKidGrünheide? The first youtuber who posted drone shots of the Giga Berlin construction. He just wrote on his twitter account that he did a three week internship there, and is all positive about the experience! Good to hear firsthand that with all the controversy the spirit inside the factory seems to be good:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777318218769559836

 

[Musskiah]

Even after adjusted for interest rates, the Model 3 and Y are already more affordable by thousands of dollars than they were 2 years ago. The TAM for each should have at least doubled. And yet they are still slashing inventory prices. They delivered less cars than a year ago while the cars are more affordable! Demand is obviously soft.

Of course, interest rate cuts will help.

You're making me soft

 

[Gigapress]

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

Model 3 is significantly larger than the average car in the world. And Americans are significantly larger than the average person in the world.

 

[Todd Burch]

You're making me soft

I said the same to my ex-wife. (Kidding, we’re married. Until the papers come through.)

You gotta admit that’s some low-hanging fruit.

Which is how she phrased her retort. I’ll be here all night folks.

 

[cliff harris]

Context? When and where was this photo taken?


Apple's famous 2007 unveiling presentation for the original iPhone was like this. Steve Jobs' demo of the prototype phone was carefully scripted to ensure that the bugs didn't cause a failure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/magazine/and-then-steve-said-let-there-be-an-iphone.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0&pagewanted=all

During the Microsoft presentation of Windows 98, it crashed with the Blue Screen of Death during the live demo.

Boeing rolled out the 787 Dreamliner in 2007 to great fanfare, but was hiding the fact that it was a basically a half-built shell of an aircraft with no systems installed and some of the structure held together by fasteners bought from Home Depot.

The ‘fake’ Boeing 787 rollout

As Boeing rolled out its ‘Dreamliner’ to experts and journalists, under the surface not all was as it seemed.

www.aljazeera.com

All of these products ended up being extremely popular with customers in the long run.

Ha. This is so common. I worked at a game company once, where the CEO flew to the US to give a demo of our game. It had to be run on the best PC money could buy, and it was overclocked so much it had a giant desk fan blowing full power on it to help with cooling. It would only run in a tiny window, and an assistant had to pre-run the game before each demo to ensure everything was pre-cached in memory, and also reboot the PC between each demo while the CEO talked to distract the journalists being pitched to.
CEO was demis hassabis, who now runs deep mind (google ai). Good times . Also worked for peter molyneux. Musk/Jobs/Hassabis/Molyneux. All very similar in their approach to pushing things to the limit.

 

[hobbes]

I won't do it again until they have it perfected because it was boring having to watch the road all the time, I'd rather be reading a book or watching a movie

...or driving ?!

 

[jschwefel]

M3 and MY are already priced in a range that over 25% of the US population can access. Keep in mind, if you price in the tax credit, over 50% of the US is in play. The "soft demand" thesis can't argue with facts like these.

Given this and the fact Tesla saw a YoY decline in auto sales while the majority of the ICE auto industry saw YoY increases, I think one would have to conclude EVs are experiencing some demand softening. Clearly this isn’t just a Tesla thing; BYD posted poor numbers as well. However, since legacy auto has posted a string of solid quarters, it doesn’t appear to be channel stuffing.

So…when in doubt, zoom out. 2023 was a really good year for EVs; growing something like 47% over 2022 numbers. That kind of growth is tough to maintain, especially when the other brands are having issues, our President won’t recognize Tesla, and a popular presidential candidate consistently talks nonsense about electric cars. I’m confident eventually this negative perception will give way to the reality that EVs, particularly Tesla EVs, are just better vehicles, but at this point I’m just hoping the Model Y will hold onto the crown of being the world’s best selling car again in 2024.

So far I’ve been super impressed with FSD 12.3.3, and while I can’t say it’s passed the “wife” test yet, it certainly has impressed her. This and the 8/8 reveal of the RoboTaxi are excellent news! I don’t concern myself with the manual drive version of this car. This “manual drive” option will make the car more complicated and more expensive than the basic RT, so people will pay more to drive the car themselves. For this reason it makes sense the basic RT will be first to market, but it’s yet to be seen if Tesla actually sells them.

Anyway, it’s never a dull moment with Tesla. While I wish I was smarter and could have times the ups and downs in TSLA over the last few years to accumulate more shares, I’m content to just sit with what I have and watch all this unfold. That contentment is rooted in the fact that Tesla has the best and brightest in their field, and they have a track record of delivering the impossible…late.

 

[Musskiah]

Juniper will eventually use CATLs M3P battery. This will enable incredibly fast charging (270mi in 15 mins) and over 500mi miles of range potential in MY.

Meantime, the CATL Shenxing, the first 4C superfast charging LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery, is capable of delivering 400 km (249 miles) of driving range with a 10-minute charge as well as a range of more than 700 km (435 miles) on a single full charge. Peak charging speed 546kW

 

[hobbes]

If Tesla can prioritize reducing high speed accidents more than fender benders, this could be the biggest benefit.

So Tesla could probably start some robotaxis in urban areas (no highways) when accident rates are around 30,000 miles per accident.

Interesting analysis!

I understand you propose starting in cities because speeds are slower and you therefore assume lower damages per accident there?

Two points why I am not sure this is the right approach:

• Possibly higher accident rate (independent of cost per accident) in city driving (just my educated guess, would have to research that)
• Significantly more vulnerable road users, so slower speeds could still lead to higher damages

 

[2Pearls]

Yeah, but that didn't apply in this case. It was crystal clear the guy had no interest in investing in Tesla. Their only purpose here was to berate, troll and annoy. They were not a useful asset to this thread or forum. Thankfully we have been (temporarily?) relieved of their presence.

So, do we not believe in free speech?

Whether he was pompous, completely wrong or trolling, we all have the ability to tune him out and not respond. And, put him/her on ignore!
This forum should be for anyone to give their opinion. As long as he does not shoot anyone or cause harm to others, does it really effect you, or any of us... this is what free speech is all about...and, I would hope, Elon would agree as well, considering all of the groups trying to silence him.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Juniper will eventually use CATLs M3P battery. This will enable incredibly fast charging (270mi in 15 mins) and over 500mi miles of range potential in MY.

Meantime, the CATL Shenxing, the first 4C superfast charging LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery, is capable of delivering 400 km (249 miles) of driving range with a 10-minute charge as well as a range of more than 700 km (435 miles) on a single full charge. Peak charging speed 546kW

So are these better than Tesla's 4680s?

 

[EVMeister]

So, do we not believe in free speech?

Whether he was pompous, completely wrong or trolling, we all have the ability to tune him out and not respond. And, put him/her on ignore!
This forum should be for anyone to give their opinion. As long as he does not shoot anyone or cause harm to others, does it really effect you, or any of us... this is what free speech is all about...and, I would hope, Elon would agree as well, considering all of the groups trying to silence him.

No, I don't believe the "free speech" excuse applies in this case. This is a moderated space which serves a specific purpose - to discuss Tesla and TSLA, as investors or those interested in investing in TSLA. There are clear rules against what can and can't be posted here, thankfully.

 

[MP3Mike]

Juniper will eventually use CATLs M3P battery. This will enable incredibly fast charging (270mi in 15 mins) and over 500mi miles of range potential in MY.

Tesla would likely never make a 500 mile Model Y. It uses too many resources, and decreases efficiency at the same time.

Look at the recent OOS Ocean-to-Ocean race with the EV trucks currently on the market.

1. Chevy Silverado EV WT4 in first place (~430 mile range with ~220kWh battery)
2. Tesla Cybertruck Cyberbeast: Just a few minutes slower (~300 range with 123kWh battery)
3. Rivian R1T: About half an hour slower (~290 mile range)
4. Ford F-150 Lightning: multiple hours slower (~280 mile range)

Even with almost double the size battery and 43% more range the Chevy wasn't really any faster than the Cybertruck over an approximately 40 hour trip. Yes, it had to make fewer stops, but most people aren't bladder busting drivers.