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Possible reason for the premarket drop.
Insider claims Berlin is producing 4k cars per week and cannot hit 5k/week due to staff shortage.


This paints a different picture..

 
I had no clue there were so many apparently successful storage companies; (thank you, @unk45 !) so does this mean storage and solar remain relatively unremarkable won't likely grow nor be as profitable to Tesla as Automotive was over the last 10 years, storage being something closer to a commodity than a one-brand-is-the-leader (like Apple with phones)?
It's hard to know if storage will be seen as a commodity. Someday it probably will be.

But I see four reasons why margins for Megapack will stay high in the next several years:
  1. Demand is "quasi-infinite", according to Elon. (I think he is right.)
  2. Tesla's brand in this space demands a premium.
  3. Tesla may have an actual technology lead in stationary storage.
  4. The fact that Tesla is building its second Megapack factory in China where there is so much competition tells me that Tesla believes in some combination of #1, #2, and #3.
 
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Am I reading that chart right? Has $360 Billion been spent on TSLA options so far in 2023? Worth half the actual market cap of the company?

It’s been widely known for years that TSLA accounts for 50% or more of the total market’s options. So yes, half of Tesla’s market cap so far this year is entirely believable even if that chart isn’t exact.

And yes, the SP can thusly be manipulated and IS manipulated. It’s not a computer bug. It’s not ‘irrationality’. It’s not ‘fear’. It’s straight up thievery and corruption. Welcome to reality.
 
It's hard to know if storage will be seen as a commodity. Someday it probably will be.

But I see four reasons why margins for Megapack will stay high in the next several years:
  1. Demand is "quasi-infinite", according to Elon. (I think he is right.)
  2. Tesla's brand in this space demands a premium.
  3. Tesla may have an actual technology lead in stationary storage.
  4. The fact that Tesla is building its second Megapack factory in China where there is so much competition tells me that Tesla believes in some combination of #1, #2, and #3.
I would dispute #2.
I was (in a small way) in the market for stationary storage at a utility level last year, and tesla's brand didn't come into it. These decisions are overwhelmingly financial, and spreadsheet based. If a competitor can deliver the same kwp/kwh stationary storage, with the same warranty, for 1% less than Tesla, they will get the sale. These decisions are made by accountants, and the market for stationary storage has a lot of choice.
Ultimately these units are all just plain metal boxes connected to a power grid. Nobody goes to see them, nobody looks at them. Branding here is irrelevant.
 
Since when is it verboten here to discuss how to fix FUD?
Not forbidden but surely we all have headaches by now from the wall that is human ignorance, stupidity or malicious intent, and have realized you really can’t fix FUD unless the person is ready, willing and able to learn, grow a brain or have a conscience.
 

The BusinessInsider .de article (haha, no link) is self-contractory, claiming Giga Berlin is suffering staff shortages AND doing layoffs. Which is it, B.I.? :p

... its just a hitpiece, it don't need to make sense, just an excuse to move the SP in their pay-for-play business model.
 
Business insider was set up by someone kicked out of the finance industry for corruption. Don't expect any actual journalism from that comic.
Due to his violations of securities laws and subsequent civil trial conviction, Blodget is permanently banned from involvement in the securities industry.[2] Blodget is the CEO of Business Insider.[3]
 
Agreed on highway, but on surface streets in the city, at least my car has improved remarkably over the past two years. Two years ago, I never used FSD on surface streets, now I use it most of the time (albeit mostly without setting Nav).
I hear that a lot. I’m starting to think that results may be very regional. Everyone we talk to here have the same failure issues as us. Darting into right turn lanes, stopping on train tracks at intersections, constant incorrect signaling. Gotta say that traffic circles are much better and with a lot less drama. It also behaves better around pedestrians at intersections. Best version for us was 11.3.6. It was also the only version that didn’t leave us on railway tracks at intersections. Baby steps but generally heading in the right direction.
 
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I had no clue there were so many apparently successful storage companies; (thank you, @unk45 !) so does this mean storage and solar remain relatively unremarkable won't likely grow nor be as profitable as Tesla's Automotive over the last 10 years, storage being something more resembling a commodity than a one-brand-is-the-leader (like Apple with phones), Tesla with cars?
This is one core question. There is so much demand and so much established technology that the principal issues require detail elsewhere.
Much information is in the Tesla Energy forum. The discussion Elon has had suggest he expects high volumes but lower profitability than for vehicles. There is no doubt that right now lack of supply of batteries and other storage solutions is keeping prices higher than they will be as supply increases, perhaps. However, in nearly all markets there is inadequate storage to buffer peaks in transient demand and supply, exacerbated by traditional less flexible power sources, especially nuclear, coal and oil.

There will be multiple very competent leader evolving. Tesla will be one of them, but less dominant than it is today.

We have some highly qualified people posting in the Tesla Energy forum. I am not one of them, although I have serious interest I do not have any technical background. All of us, as TSLA investors, need to develop competence in the basics, in my opinion, so I'm trying to do so myself. Since my 1990 photovoltaic-powered, AT&T Legacy lead-acid battery reserved island I have been a fan and consumer so maybe a little has rubbed off over the years.
 
I would dispute #2.
I was (in a small way) in the market for stationary storage at a utility level last year, and tesla's brand didn't come into it. These decisions are overwhelmingly financial, and spreadsheet based. If a competitor can deliver the same kwp/kwh stationary storage, with the same warranty, for 1% less than Tesla, they will get the sale. These decisions are made by accountants, and the market for stationary storage has a lot of choice.
Ultimately these units are all just plain metal boxes connected to a power grid. Nobody goes to see them, nobody looks at them. Branding here is irrelevant.
I see a couple of reasons why the Tesla brand will help it sell Magapacks:
  • Tesla is well known in the space and more likely to be considered in a purchasing decision.
  • Tesla is more trusted than, say, a Chinese brand (at least outside of China).
Is Tesla's brand in stationary storage truly irrelevant?
@cliff harris Do the above not apply?
 
I agree with your post while adding only that major public utility infrastructure suppliers already have Autobidder-like products. AFAIK none thus far have integrated large supply (e.g. utility solar and/or large wind, with small household-level suppliers as Tesla does with VPP, while providing effectively instantaneous response times. Even if none do that today, the EU/UK demands today from wind, in particular argue for seamless integration of every supply source and demand destination within a single grid. Because this is both obvious and crucial Tesla VPP mimics are about to be ubiquitous.

For context, ask @NicoV, whose own house and cars benefit from this capability in Belgium today. I do not know the software provider there, but perhaps he does.

Just as nearly all of us are sure that Tesla has giant opportunities in this sphere, so too do a plethora of other suppliers.

I would dispute #2.
I was (in a small way) in the market for stationary storage at a utility level last year, and tesla's brand didn't come into it. These decisions are overwhelmingly financial, and spreadsheet based. If a competitor can deliver the same kwp/kwh stationary storage, with the same warranty, for 1% less than Tesla, they will get the sale. These decisions are made by accountants, and the market for stationary storage has a lot of choice.
Ultimately these units are all just plain metal boxes connected to a power grid. Nobody goes to see them, nobody looks at them. Branding here is irrelevant.

I am 99.9% sure Octopus Kraken has the equivalent functionality to Tesla Autobidder in almost every respect, including both domestic and utility push and pull. At the utility-only level you can buy solutions such as the RES one. Both are available and running in many countries. There are many others but I don't bother keeping track of them as many get white-labelled so it is very tedious to parse out the reality in what is available public domain.

For some customers Tesla brand does matter (as did IBM) but by no means all.
 
Because this is both obvious and crucial Tesla VPP mimics are about to be ubiquitous.

For context, ask @NicoV, whose own house and cars benefit from this capability in Belgium today. I do not know the software provider there, but perhaps he does.

I use Jedlix: EV Drivers NL
It controls the charging of your car in such a way that your car chargest the cheapest possible way given your electricity contract. Typically during the night and/or weekend if you have the typical dual peak/night contract. But if you have a contract with hourly prices it will charge your car during the absolute cheapest hours, sometimes even using negative prices Note that the number of hours per year with negative pricing is going up exponentially. There was a study some time ago claiming that when the whole zero-emission transmission is complete, one in three hours will have negative pricing.
Pro tip for anybody considering buying a non-Tesla EV: choose a model from the Jedlix compatibility list: https://support.jedlix.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019525459-Is-my-car-supported-in-the-Jedlix-app-
Since a couple of months Engie, the biggest electricity company in Belgium, has its own white-label version of the Jedlix app.
I also run an app that I wrote myself that integrates with my smart electricity meter that temporarily lowers the charging speed of our cars, because part of electricity transport costs are now based on the max power in a moving 15 minute window.
It was astonishingly simple to write this app. It’s basically just REST calls with OAuth security. If you have ever written a client of a REST service, you know how to do this. I’m thinking of extending this app by scraping the projected wind power from our local electricity network company and use that to tell me what the most probable cheapest hours will be over the next week.
If I had a Tesla powerwall it probably wouldn’t be a lot of work to program my own VPP since the same Tesla api exposes the powerwall functionality (still not very well documented, but that’s a matter of time).
I have a reservation for a solar roof and powerwall, driven by the assumption that only Tesla would integrate this into something that would have VPP functionality out-of-the-box. I’m not so sure anymore that Tesla would be bothered to write this for our small region of 6 million people (every region probably has its own data sources). But the barrier to implement this is very low, and somebody will make an open-source project that does this.
Conclusion: Tesla virtual power plant is not a moat.
 
Wow, what am awesome tweet by Dillon Loomis! Excellent summary that should be read by everyone in this forum.

There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.


(small technical ask to everyone: if you put the link from twitter.com, the TMC app will embed the tweet.
it you put x.com it doesn't work. at least on my phone)
 
Looking at this graph I’m reminded of a conversation some 3-4 years ago which was about why the first million was hard, and the second million was easy. I thought I had come up with a good explanation: It takes many doublings from a given modest starting amount for investing to reach 1 million, but just one other doubling to make it to two million.

When I saw a graph similar to the one above (can’t find that post) I came up with another explanation why the second million is easy. Draw a horizontal line at $200-$250 and you can see it is just the same million dollar time and time again.
 
Looking at this graph I’m reminded of a conversation some 3-4 years ago which was about why the first million was hard, and the second million was easy. I thought I had come up with a good explanation: It takes many doublings from a given modest starting amount for investing to reach 1 million, but just one other doubling to make it to two million.

When I saw a graph similar to the one above (can’t find that post) I came up with another explanation why the second million is easy. Draw a horizontal line at $200-$250 and you can see it is just the same million dollar time and time again.
So you have 20,000 shares then.

Could buy a couple of mountains with that.
 
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I am 99.9% sure Octopus Kraken has the equivalent functionality to Tesla Autobidder in almost every respect, including both domestic and utility push and pull. At the utility-only level you can buy solutions such as the RES one. Both are available and running in many countries. There are many others but I don't bother keeping track of them as many get white-labelled so it is very tedious to parse out the reality in what is available public domain.

For some customers Tesla brand does matter (as did IBM) but by no means all.
I disagree that the decision as to which battery storage system is purchased by a utility is a 100% financial decision. This would be the case if an engineering consultant had done a very detailed design of what was to be built, and if the general contractors/subcontractors were prequalified ahead of the tender (bidding) process, and the equipment supplied was commodity equipment. However, these facilities are likely procured as a Design-Build process, where a team bids on the project, which includes the design *and* the equipment supply/construction of the facility. In this case, the Owner will have a way of rating design-build proposals, which would factor in the qualifications of each bidding team, including proposed team members, track record (incl. past/relevant/recent/local projects with references that can be contacted to see how these facilities are doing), proposed *schedule* (this is where Tesla may one day shine, if they use their huge cash position and ability to quickly build efficient factories), any innovation/improvements/warranties, etc. that go beyond the requested minimum (these would likely be optional/provisional items that would be added to the base bid if the team is successful), etc. Many levels of government and private industry don't always go with the low bidder when procuring engineering services, including design-build contracts, but the decision-making process needs to be clear/transparent/defensible (i.e., "...while the successful proponent's bid was 10% higher than the second-lowest bidder, the procurement team awarded additional technical points to ABC Partners due to their longer list of local projects, excellent references, and compressed schedule...").
 
I would love to be surprised by finding out Tesla had stealthily built another one or two Lathrop-style facilities across the US (Central and Eastern) and have kept it under wraps.

Even though battery supply might be a constraint in the short term, being a step ahead with a couple of additional Megapack factories across North America would position Tesla well in accommodating the longer term demand the transition to less expensive, more reliable, renewable energy generation and storage will bring.

What ever became of that warehouse Tesla acquired near Houston?* (my guess is that it is auto-related rather than Megapack)

Nonetheless, getting any existing grid upgraded to the new, improved, and less expensive tech as soon as possible will result in a boon to all as the lower costs of energy will trickle down into the economy.

Edit: * The Brookshire TX, "Tesla Empire Warehouse" was a lease, not a purchase. Named such as it is on Empire Blvd, but still kinda kewl.
 
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