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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Mach-E sales must absolutely be cratering.
Only the most die-hard F fans would be spending all that extra $$$.
And do I need to mention ICE equivalents? RAV4?
Only the most die-hard F fans would be spending all that extra $$$.
And do I need to mention ICE equivalents? RAV4?
TesslaBull
Member
IMO, that's a very competitive rate for unlimited data, nicely done!
A Mach E in Canada is roughly the same price as a model Y AWD here in BC. They are readily available on car lots.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Respectfully, Canada isn't that big of a market. Sure, pricing is the same, etc.
US market for the Mach-E is by and far their largest. And if you go look on the Mach-E forums, even some of the die-hards are like "man, I hate the way the Model Y looks, but after the IRA and the price cuts, it's $15k less than the Ford, I can't pass that up".
Tesla is missing the mark on this. Until FSD is "feature complete" every single buyer should have it roll to their next Tesla until it is feature complete. At that time, it will be fair for it to stay with the car and be repurchased for new vehicles.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
No. Just no.
It was something CLEARLY laid out when purchase was made (and still is) that is it NOT feature complete. That many buyers are buying in at a lower price point that is it NOT feature completed. And that it won't roll over to another car.
I knew, very VERY well, what I was getting when I bought a car with FSD.
FSD once feature complete will be worth multiple times the price today. I for one would pay $50k to have a personal driver for 10 years. I'm perfectly content letting a car drive me around while reading a book, listening to music, or even getting work done.
I look at it this way. If it saves me from falling asleep and crashing during a trip, it's worth every penny as it is now.
If GigaShangha costing $7.7B and returning $7.7B profit annually for a 100% ROIC is merely considered good, how do you feel about most companies that would kill for a 20% ROIC?CAPEX TO 20 MILLION AUTO PRODUCTION:
This is when we really miss the contributions of members like @The Accountant (and others). While it's fine to ponder the current quarterly results, its the end game we really should be discussing here.
CapEx funding was a big issue for several notable TSLA Analysts and Institutional Investors in the past. I believe Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) said they expect Tesla would need to raise another ~$15B in the Capital Markets to fund future growth. Now, that need is in doubt as Tesla appears to be targeting self-funded growth from operations. This is inconceivable for Wall St.
Can Tesla reasonably get to 20 Million annual production rate by 2030?
Let's make a simple growth table, based on these 3 assumptions:
View attachment 929935
- Given $2B in CapEx spend to start (this is where a 10-Q could be handy)
- $7,000 in CapEx buys 1 unit of auto production (historical average)
- 50% growth per annum in CapEx spend (that's +10.67%/Qtr, compounded)
So as we see above, if Tesla can maintain exponential investment, then reaching 20M/yr Auto production capacity is absolutely in play by 2030 (given that the CapEx would need to be spent by 2028 for that production to come online in 2030).
Let's check some assumptions on CapEx spend:
Elon once said "I try to take a set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good". I think the chances are pretty fair with this plan.
- $140B total CapEx spend required by 2028 to achieve the goal
- Half of that CapEx will be spent in the final 6 Quarters (~1.5 years)
- Final CapEx spend rate will reach $15B per Qtr by 2028
- So far:
- Giga Shanghai is currently at 1.1M/yr capacity. At $7K/unit of production, that means if Tesla built the factory for $7.7B USD or less, then they got a good deal
- Giga Texas is reported in permits to cost $10B for the entire project construction. Again, if annual capacity at that site is greater than 1.43M units, then that's very effective cost management
- Giga Berlin is an unknown for me, anybody care to step forward with an opinion?
- Giga Mexico is said to be half the CapEx per unit of production.
- Will "Unboxing" filter backward to existing plants, or
- is it possible to accelerate the 2028 timetable while keeping CapEx as above? or
- reduce CapEx and increasing net income while maintaining 50% growth rate? (my vote)
Cheers to the Longs!
#CAPEX
FSD is absolutely no where close to a personal driver level. For that it would have to enter a parking lot and park itself. Right now it can’t go 500 metres in town without an intervention. And it would rack up thousands of dollars of fines on a simple 10 minute drive downtown.
Maybe someday but that is many years away. Cool system and we use it often but it is very much a level 2 system.
How much time do you spend per week on city roads?
I'd pay good money for a Level 3+ system just on highways that would allow me to stop paying attention to the road for long hauls, of which I do many. City driving to the grocery store and back IMO isn't even in the same realm of significance compared to the 7-10hr highway drives, personally would not pay anywhere close to $50k for an urban autonomy chauffeur and I think that only really makes sense as a full-on robotaxi service that could also generate income -- but then not sure if I'd want other people using my vehicle.
So are we sure consensus is $0.85?
I could see us beating that only to find Refinitiv or Factset coming out with some BS that the whisper number was actually $1.10.
I could see us beating that only to find Refinitiv or Factset coming out with some BS that the whisper number was actually $1.10.
Where do you think energy deployment (in terms of GWh) and gross margins need to be on the report to show signs that it is on the S-curve?
Drumheller
Active Member
We will learn the actual whisper number 10 minutes after Tesla releases their report.
Thought the actual whisper number is released the day after earnings
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Rob had on his SS yesterday IIRC something like 2400 GWh. I would like to see 2700 GWh, but I understand that these are primarily commercial/industrial deployments, and that has a lot of red tape and things can be very "lumpy" because revenue is not recognized till the project is done and the customer pays.
It's embedded in the news feed.Thought the actual whisper number is released the day after earnings
Today Tesla announce earnings of X, this was a miss versus the whisper number of X+RND(100*X*0.08)/100+X*0.02
Why only city roads? A fully autonomous vehicle should be able to drive me anywhere, to work, to the store, on road trips, etc. I may have my car drive me to a random spot in the city of outside for sightseeing purposes, and I may have the car drive my family to wherever they want and then come pick me up. There are a lot of use cases I can think of for a Level 4-5 autonomous vehicle that would justify $50k.
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