Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

Failure to deliver
(the below paragraph is quite opaque to me)
(I have (tediously) aligned the data in the FTD file to the date, close and vol so it is hopefully more or less correct)
(November, 2018, December 2018 and 1st 1/2 of January 2019 are "missing/no data" and the SEC has the BOLDED disclaimer, so this dataset starts on january 23rd, 2019.
Sure looks like lots of shenennigans on the left side
-----------------snip--------------------------

The values of total fails-to-deliver shares represent the aggregate net balance of shares that failed to be delivered as of a particular settlement date.

If the aggregate net balance of shares that failed to be delivered is less than 10,000 as of a particular settlement date prior to September 16, 2008, then no record will be present in the file for that date even if there are fails in that security. If the aggregate net balance of shares that failed to be delivered is zero as of a particular settlement date on or after September 16, 2008, then no record will be present in the file for that date.
Fails to deliver on a given day are a cumulative number of all fails outstanding until that day, plus new fails that occur that day, less fails that settle that day.

The figure is not a daily amount of fails, but a combined figure that includes both new fails on the reporting day as well as existing fails.

In other words, these numbers reflect aggregate fails as of a specific point in time, and may have little or no relationship to yesterday's aggregate fails.

Thus, it is important to note that the age of fails cannot be determined by looking at these numbers.

In addition, the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares is not necessarily the same as the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares reported the day prior or the day after.
(WTH does this sentence mean please)

==>> We cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data. <<===sec words​

(editorial: but we can make it as confusing and as opaque as possible)

Please note that fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales.
Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or “naked” short selling.
For more information on short selling and fails-to-deliver,
see http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
http://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/mrfaqregsho1204.htm
http://www.sec.gov/rules/final/34-50103.htm.

 

[Gray Man]

Or BPTIX which is the institutional share ... less costs. Either one you can put inside a 401k if you have the pull or if you are the 401k administrator. Which currently the fund holds close to 50% TSLA... how convenient for employees to be able to contribute to this fund and DCA weekly or bi weekly, especially if they get employer matching. Since as we know, 401k's don't allow for individual stocks, so this give you almost a 50% opportunity to invest in the best risk adjusted long term company that I am aware of. YMMV

FWIW, my 401K began offering ability to do individual stocks this year. I don't have the cojones like some here to go all in with my retirement, but I did end up moving like 1/6 of current balance in. have a larger pct of my discretionary investments in TSLA, though.

 

[thx1139]

I disagree with some of this. 4680s currently seems to be the only major blunder, and if you want to count FSD not being a robotaxi then sure.

But as for the cybertruck and production ramp

GigaBerlin and Texas are on track. Remember the first deliveries out of Giga Shanghai was Dec 30 2019. They did not hit 5k/week until Q4 2020 earnings call which is 1 year later.

Giga Berlin's first deliveries was Mar 22 2022. Expecting them to hit 5k/week right now will put them a full quarter FASTER than Shanghai.

As for the cybertruck, this was explained by Elon. The demand for the 3/Ys were higher than expected and they had a battery shortage all the way till now. Killing themselves trying to release the cybertruck not only gets you less cars made but way worst margins. Tesla did the sensible financial move delaying the cybertruck.

I agree. The announcement that CyberTruck was before Q4 2021 earnings came out. So to use as a reason 2022 performace is bad is really stretching it.

 

[WattsHappening]

Whatever happened to Tesla ending such waves? IIRC several well known predictors of P&D based their #s on such wave endings that this info from China suggest are not actually ending?

I can tell you from experience it's not easy to 'end the wave.' It may make sense on paper, but when push comes to shove, companies are going to want to maximize shipments every quarter.

Particularly during a quarter when:

• There are questions about demand weakness.
• There are questions about shutting down production lines.
• It's year end as well as quarter end.
• Promises were made at the beginning of the quarter (50% in production, close to 50% in deliveries).
• Stock price has been incredibly weak.
• Pressure from Investors to shore up the stock price (buybacks, announcements, calling for board action, calling for Elon's head, etc.).
• I'm sure there are other reasons that are eluding me.

I think the time to end the wave once and for good is during a quarter when the company is going to surpass expectations, stock price is fairly valued or better and during a quarter that is not year end. Clearly Tesla intended this to be put in place during 2022. But current circumstances make it too painful to follow through on it this quarter.

And the correct way to approach it would be to announce it early in the quarter, rather than surprising us during P&D announcement or earnings call. Maybe we get there in Q2 or Q3 2023.

 

[Hock1]

I’m going to discuss my favorite bogeyman and have you tell me in what way it differs from what you wrote:

“Trevor Milton didn’t sell Nikola shares because he knew his fraudulent house of cards was going to be tumbling. He sold because he needed cash for that mega ranch in Heber City.”

I don't know what this has to do with TSLA Investment forum, but why can't it be both?

 

[thx1139]

Whatever happened to Tesla ending such waves? IIRC several well known predictors of P&D based their #s on such wave endings that this info from China suggest are not actually ending?

I always felt that the wave would not be so clearly ended for the 4th quarter. This is the end of year, so Tesla would want to go out with a bang. Still I dont think they will logistically jump through hoops to get extra cars delivered. I dont think they will take extraordinary means to get cars delivered in the last 2 weeks. They are giving incentives to purchasers to make extra ordinary means, but wont pay extra to ship cars through more expensive means, pull people out of roles so they can do deliveries, etc.

 

[AudubonB]

@Hock1

Say what???

On edit: Do you mean both because of impending doom AND because of his ranch payments? The point is, a deceptive person will always point only to the latter.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What are you doing? Don’t you know you are not allowed to post anything critical of Tesla on here, let alone a list of everything they failed at this year? You are supposed to go cry into a pillow apparently like our grandparents did.

(sarcasm of course)

Excellent post! I agree all those things you listed were negatives for the stock price, but Elon has not helped either with his antics & selling. A brutal one-two punch for TSLA investors.

The 4680 info is a bit surprising for me. I didn’t realize the energy density was a disappointment. Is this why 4680 production is being held back? In other words is it still under development? Kinda though it was just a scaling issue at this point.

 

[SunCatcher]

Not sure that empathy is his strong suit.

The man has nearly worked himself to death for how many years now, all for the sake of humanity, which he himself has said that he "loves". Can we please just let all this play out before crucifying him once and for all? Or is the all mighty day-to-day and week-to-week value of our portfolios and holdings all that really counts for us? Get out of that vault and stop endlessly counting your stacks of gold coins people, and go outside and embrace the sunlight for a few hours. Seriously; it will do you some good.

And if examples like this aren't indicative of Elon Musk's capacity for empathy, then I don't know what is.

"There are Australians today wondering even if they can turn on their lights. There are Australians today wondering if, well, should we go without some food. That's just not something you would ever expect."

Elon; "I did not expect that. Huh, we will work harder."

 

[FSDtester#1]

FWIW, my 401K began offering ability to do individual stocks this year. I don't have the cojones like some here to go all in with my retirement, but I did end up moving like 1/6 of current balance in. have a larger pct of my discretionary investments in TSLA, though.

Thanks for the update. I wasn't aware stocks were being offered.
I put 100% of my and wife's IRA's into TSLA and 100% of my 401k into this fund.
Oh, and 90% of Non qualified brokerage into TSLA. The other 10% is Amazon we bought 8 years ago. So you could say I like the company. All this purchasing happened 1 week after I took delivery of my first Tesla. After owning 20 plus cars over the years I will never forget how blown away I was. Some of those 20 cars were very high end ice vehicles and didn't hold a candle to my new baby. Her name is "Ohm my"... because those were the first words when I hit the accelerator. (I didn't put the vulgar word following - oh my f...... god....into the cars name)

A very astute investor taught me years ago, if you are thinking of buying a companies stock and have the ability to see or test the product do it first. His example, of course advice was years back, was are you thinking about buying Kmart? If so go to a few of them, check the parking lot, is it full. Are the items properly stocked and presented properly, are the bathrooms clean, are the employees nice, do they seem happy to be there? There were more questions but that makes his point. Driving my Tesla for the first time and the following week had me convinced there is no competition. Not now, not ever is someone going to catch up to their engineering brilliance. At least not in my lifetime. Just my opinion from my life experiences.

So it begs the question when my wife says I have big cojones is she talking about our investments or ...

 

[MikeC]

are we sure Berlin is above 3k per week? How come they never tweeted this milestone out yet? Or did i miss it?

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Giga Texas hits 3K a week!

teslamotorsclub.com

I always felt that the wave would not be so clearly ended for the 4th quarter. This is the end of year, so Tesla would want to go out with a bang. Still I dont think they will logistically jump through hoops to get extra cars delivered. I dont think they will take extraordinary means to get cars delivered in the last 2 weeks. They are giving incentives to purchasers to make extra ordinary means, but wont pay extra to ship cars through more expensive means, pull people out of roles so they can do deliveries, etc.

You’re right - in a way, the customer discounts are in lieu of spending that same money on extra logistical costs.

I thought the reason they can’t end the wave was because they always have more cars to ship every quarter. I think they’ll always hustle at end of quarter but they won’t be sacrificing gross margin just for more revenue.

 

[willow_hiller]

"Tesla Electric" (Tesla operating as an energy provider) officially launched in Texas:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603512255672225792

Edit: Oops, missed the discussion of this a few hours ago. I searched the thread for this link in particular.

 

[mongo]

The 4680 info is a bit surprising for me. I didn’t realize the energy density was a disappointment. Is this why 4680 production is being held back? In other words is it still under development? Kinda though it was just a scaling issue at this point.

Cathode is still a wet process
Not using silicon anode
Vehicle is not optimized for structural pack

Battery day in 2020 projected 3 years to integrate all the improvements.
We're impatient.

 

[Gray Man]

Thanks for the update. I wasn't aware stocks were being offered.

So, it's not super straight forward, but is possible. I move funds (or allocate future contribs) into a "personalized investment" bucket in Transamerica retirement acct, which go into a Schwab settlement fund, then I can buy from there. Its not user friendly, but works.

 

[Zero CO2]

Wise words…

A must watch for all the crybabies on this thread over the last 24 hours.. boohoo its all Elons fault

 

[Usain]

The 4680 info is a bit surprising for me. I didn’t realize the energy density was a disappointment. Is this why 4680 production is being held back? In other words is it still under development? Kinda though it was just a scaling issue at this point.

Energy density is acceptable at this point. Even if density doesn't improve, it is good enough that Tesla makes much higher margins using their own in-house batteries. Therefore, it is just a scaling issue. Or at least we can say that scaling is a lot more important than energy density right now.

 

[thesmokingman]

A must watch for all the crybabies on this thread over the last 24 hours.. boohoo its all Elons fault

Love his sarcasm and wit, lol. To paraphrase, if you are freaking out about the share price in the short term, it might just be a sign that you shouldn't be investing in individual stocks... that is truth right there.

 

[Ogre]

I disagree with some of this. 4680s currently seems to be the only major blunder, and if you want to count FSD not being a robotaxi then sure.

But as for the cybertruck and production ramp

GigaBerlin and Texas are on track. Remember the first deliveries out of Giga Shanghai was Dec 30 2019. They did not hit 5k/week until Q4 2020 earnings call which is 1 year later.

Giga Berlin's first deliveries was Mar 22 2022. Expecting them to hit 5k/week right now will put them a full quarter FASTER than Shanghai.

As for the cybertruck, this was explained by Elon. The demand for the 3/Ys were higher than expected and they had a battery shortage all the way till now. Killing themselves trying to release the cybertruck not only gets you less cars made but way worst margins. Tesla did the sensible financial move delaying the cybertruck.

I think you should go back and revisit January/ February posts, everyone was sanguine about 2022. For example look at this post from GP.

His **BEARISH** estimate on margins was 31% for 2022. Actual Q3 margins? 27.9%. I'm not trying to cherry pick or pick on @Gigapress (who has tons of awesome content). This was not a stand alone post, it was the general sentiment of the forum. Were you expecting less than production 50% growth and sub 28% margins last January?

Fundamentally it's not about who's fault it is. The Cybertruck was **expected** why or how it didn't arrive is irrelevant. As you suggest, Tesla executed fine with the hand they were dealt. It's just not what we expected a year ago December. Its not what was priced into the share price then either.

Probably the single biggest problem is the 4680 ramp has still largely fallen short and a lot depends on it. It had a cascading effect on everything from the Cybertruck launch to Texas Model Y production to margins. Kind of surprising how much it's fallen out of people's minds.

 

[Ogre]

If this is true, then 2022 has been an A++ year, with a strong finish. Come on, a C- year? Give me a break. Tesla has been lights out.

I guess I'm missing the "/s" or something.

If not, maybe you've heard something about 4680 production I missed?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Love his sarcasm and wit, lol. To paraphrase, if you are freaking out about the share price in the short term, it might just be a sign that you shouldn't be investing in individual stocks... that is truth right there.

Reminds me of a line from boiler room.

“Don’t pitch the pitch”

Turn the second p upside down.