Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

When I order my Optimus it will have the Bangles app, so it will ...

wait for it...

walk, like an Egyptian

 

[hobbes]

I wonder if the reason for the wide release of FSD is to continue the March of the 9’s.

Does the March of the 9’s mean the gathering of the edge case data will soon require sample size that is possible only from a wide release?

As for the timing, even after a wide release Tesla needs time to for the edge cases to happen, then gather and create training data sets as well as to validate training system updates for these edge cases.

As we, and Elon, have said, no one is even close to Tesla, especially if the robotaxi government certification implies the need for edge case data gathered from a hundred thousand data collecting cars and human drivers on the real road over an extended period, especially through the weather and road conditions of the winter months.

They should do the final release on March 9
Unfortunately, it will still take a while because for the year the only options are 2042, 2069, and 2099.
Or am I missing something?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Optimus

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Too much clutter, guys and girl (this forum isn’t much more emancipated than Tesla’s engineering corps). Time to cut the jokes about wives/girlfriends and Optimus’ walk. Also: taxes do not belong in this thread (long-standing policy).

 

[Ogre]

Too much clutter, guys and girl (this forum isn’t much more emancipated than Tesla’s engineering corps). Time to cut the jokes about wives/girlfriends and Optimus’ walk. Also: taxes do not belong in this thread (long-standing policy).

I know it's not my call, but I do think the observation made about timing and Roth Conversions was very relevant to many of us. (But the point has already been made!!)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I know it's not my call, but I do think the observation made about timing and Roth Conversions was very relevant to many of us. (But the point has already been made!!)

To many others it’s not relevant (and plainly boring). These kind of ‘helpdesk subjects’ belong in Tax discussion, strategies and questions

 

[Mengy]

Which is why Q4 is such a crucial make or break for both bull and bear narratives. There’s very little middle ground on practically everything - demand, production increase/capacity, margins, earnings, etc

If…..and that’s a big if, there are no production hiccups or downtimes in Q4, this will be the most pivotal quarter in Tesla’s history, at least to me and what means for Tesla’s valuation going forward

Do many people feel this Q4 is a pivotal "make or break" quarter for Tesla?

To me it will likely be just another record breaking quarter which will go mostly unrecognized due to the market environment and macros. Followed by the SP not moving much at all even though it certainly would in a healthy market.


What kind of stock action are most people expecting to see after Q4 earnings?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Do many people feel this Q4 is a pivotal "make or break" quarter for Tesla?

To me it will likely be just another record breaking quarter which will go mostly unrecognized due to the market environment and macros. Followed by the SP not moving much at all even though it certainly would in a healthy market.


What kind of stock action are most people expecting to see after Q4 earnings?

To the moon.

 

[wipster]

While I agree with the Mod that the posts in question belong in different threads, the difficulty that I and I expect many of us have is that I spend 95% of my time in this thread. I've found it's kind of a catch-all (especially on weekends) for many Tesla related issues. I also find that most of the people whose opinions I respect the most post here predominantly as well.

So with that in mind, what's the best way of alerting folks of important posts in another thread? Should @Ryan27 or @bkp_duke post in the appropriate forum and then post here to alert folks to their posts in another forum? Or is there a better solution available? Maybe restructure the board to be more like Tweeter or Reddit?

I'm serious here. I barely look at the other forums and I suppose I should, but don't because I'm lazy...

Any suggestions and/or comments are appreciated. DM if we don't want to clutter up the thread.

Good Q. In-post answer: I am happy elated to have participants post in the appropriate other threads and leave an ===>innocuous<=== breadcrumb here.

 

[ZachF]

Meta just announced mass layoffs in the thousands.

EDIT- to add, this may push up Meta stock, as cost control has been one of the biggest issues with the stock… could have macro effects too.

 

[wipster]

Do many people feel this Q4 is a pivotal "make or break" quarter for Tesla?

To me it will likely be just another record breaking quarter which will go mostly unrecognized due to the market environment and macros. Followed by the SP not moving much at all even though it certainly would in a healthy market.


What kind of stock action are most people expecting to see after Q4 earnings?

More of the same, but some of that is beyond our control. I expect Q1 and 2 to be pretty damn good with Germany and Austin getting their acts together and Q3 and 4 accelerating that with the addition of CyberTruck and Semi (to a lesser effect). So overall I think next year to be great if there is no offside interference.

 

[ZachF]

I think we’re headed for a little double dip recession. California and the Bay Area specifically will be the worst hit imho. Signs of such are starting to show up.

 

[wipster]

I think we’re headed for a little double dip recession. California and the Bay Area specifically will be the worst hit imho. Signs of such are starting to show up.

Hell has it even been determined we're in a single dip recession? While some things point to one, there are others that don't, even though the Fed is trying as hard as they can to put us in one. And will it even have an effect on Tesla sales... hasn't so far!

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm serious here. I barely look at the other forums and I suppose I should, but don't because I'm lazy...

Post in another thread then link it here, at least there is a chance that the debate continues in the other thread, rather than here.

 

[geometro]

Meta just announced mass layoffs in the thousands.

EDIT- to add, this may push up Meta stock, as cost control has been one of the biggest issues with the stock… could have macro effects too.

To be fair, they haven’t announced anything. This is just reporting by wsj who are citing “people familiar with the matter”.

 

[Xepa777]

The market is often irrational. No reason whatsoever why TSLA P/E can’t drop to 30x or below, even while maintaining high earnings growth. Markets deeply oversell equities often, especially in times of economic uncertainty, and especially for companies where there is a wide range of opinions on future growth rates.

Edit to add: Not a prediction (I’m loaded up with LEAPs hoping for the opposite in fact). Just pointing out the obvious fact that there are no fundamental laws for what stock price valuation multiples have to adhere to.

Facebook PE is under 9. Did anyone predict that 3 years ago? Anything can happen as long as the fed is tightening.

 

[Thekiwi]

Apple just made a press release regarding Covid impact in China factory causing big delays for iPhone Pros (wait time now over a month). Not quite a guidance downgrade warning, but pretty much is one. Would expect a negative open on Monday morning for the markets.

 

[Ogre]

Do many people feel this Q4 is a pivotal "make or break" quarter for Tesla?

To me it will likely be just another record breaking quarter which will go mostly unrecognized due to the market environment and macros. Followed by the SP not moving much at all even though it certainly would in a healthy market.


What kind of stock action are most people expecting to see after Q4 earnings?

I suspect until we come out the other side of this downturn the stock won't gain any momentum at all. But there is a fair chance with enough good news piled on Tesla will recover stronger and longer than many other companies. Tesla seems to be continuing their growth arc through this in spite of the economy/ inflation/ whatever. Once people regain enough confidence in the market, people will be looking for places to put their cash.

The 4th quarter results might just be a matter of keeping at the surface in the bottom of a deep trough. A bad 4th quarter could be quite bad, but a good 4th quarter likely will just keep us bobbing along.

 

[cab]

Apple just made a press release regarding Covid impact in China factory causing big delays for iPhone Pros (wait time now over a month). Not quite a guidance downgrade warning, but pretty much is one. Would expect a negative open on Monday morning for the markets.

Sigh, Tesla Shanghai shutdowns in 5...4...3...2...

 

[carterm2]

Foxconn teaser of upcoming Model B reveal in 2 weeks. It's body is designed by Italian design firm Pininfarina.

I was expecting Foxcon to build a car for that fruit company, but...

PIF (Saudi Royal $$$) + Foxcon (w/BMW tech) = CEER

Saudi Arabia to Build Electric Vehicles With Apple Supplier Foxconn

The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is partnering with the biggest assembler of Apple iPhones.

www.wsj.com