Oh, I am sure there will be a healthy demand for “personalized” varietiesI would prefer Optimus walk like this.
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Oh, I am sure there will be a healthy demand for “personalized” varietiesI would prefer Optimus walk like this.
Unfortunately it was not sarcasm ! Many people have no clue, as stated earlier, that there is no comparison to be made between Musk and Bezos. One is in it for $$, one for a better world. We all know who is who... at least in this forum.If so, I missed it, sorry.
Yup. This is how my Optimus army will walk.Oh, I am sure there will be a healthy demand for “personalized” varieties
And he won’t look a day older.Biden plans on still being alive in 3035.
Uglier? You planning to marry one of them?That's true, but it's legs are shorter and it's uglier...
I saw another reply on similar lines. First I thought I will ignore.Wow. Just wow.
This confirms how much understanding 99.99% of people have. Wow.
That's normal though. People also think that Bezos also "goes to space" so SpaceX has done nothing better.
I wonder if the reason for the wide release of FSD is to continue the March of the 9’s.
Does the March of the 9’s mean the gathering of the edge case data will soon require sample size that is possible only from a wide release?
As for the timing, even after a wide release Tesla needs time to for the edge cases to happen, then gather and create training data sets as well as to validate training system updates for these edge cases.
As we, and Elon, have said, no one is even close to Tesla. Especially if a robotaxi government certification implies the need for edge case data gathered from a hundred thousand data collecting cars and human drivers on the real road over an extended period, especially through the weather conditions of the winter months.
TL-DR; Probably better in the FSD thread, but hey, it is the weekend! It is happening faster than I think most realize, but I think you have a good grasp on the challenges at hand. And I realize Tesla has hit some local maxima in the past and had to re-architect, but this time, it seems apparent that their approach has no fundamental flaws and they've exposed nearly the entire process. And the more I typed below, the more questions might come up, so happy to respond if ping'd in the FSD thread...I'm curious what practical ramifications you see if FSD is released to all purchasers soon? To my way of thinking, it will allow some revenue recognition but that is a one-time thing, with the addition of new FSD purchases being recognized immediately. Yes, that's a lot of revenue but do you have any insight how this is a milestone beyond a book-keeping change?
I suppose it could be taken as general indicator that Tesla thinks it's good enough to increase the user base, but I don't put a lot of weight into it being a strong indicator of progress because I believe they could have gone wide release without too much problem when they decided to use the "Safety Score" (as long as Tesla implemented strong controls to verify users were paying attention and not abusing the system). I think the reason they didn't do that was simply to see how a smaller subset of their customers would get along with it before increasing the user base. Do you think I'm missing something?
In short, I think it could create the appearance of more progress than it actually necessarily indicates. Of course, maybe it will be more improved than I think. Even in that case, I think it's just as possible to hit a technological wall after wide release as before, and end up stalled, without the being able to achieve good progress on "the march of nines" without a fresh approach. I don't like being negative, but my observations make me think the improvements are slowing down, not going exponential as I previously expected. It's already amazing in its capability but it's still a long, long, long, ways from driving unsupervised without getting hung up. I believe I previously under-estimated how difficult it would be to get the last little bit of needed improvement to be fully autonomous.
I saw another reply on similar lines. First I thought I will ignore.
I am fully clued in on the AI part of the humanoid robot, which is path breaking, ground breaking, earth shattering and that is what will make this super useful in many situations and no one else is even doing any work in this area . Robots doing niche singular work on a controlled environment to general purpose intelligent tasks on a chaotic world is a huge leap.
I get that. I don’t need to be schooled in on that.
If you go back and read my note, I specifically only made an observation on one aspect - locomotion aka walking. And that seems to be a solved problem given where BD and many others are.
Making the safe assumption that Republicans wanted to remove the EV subsidies in the IRA do they have to get past a Biden veto?
So itll probably just be a lame duck session for the next two years.Generally speaking- yes- they're not going to have enough seats to override a veto in either chamber let alone both.
Though they could potentially attach language that'd repeal or cripple some or all of it to "must pass" type bills and see who blinks first if they care that much (or even hope nobody notices if it's a subtle change snuck into an amendment to some unrelated 1000 page bill)
Making the safe assumption that Republicans wanted to remove the EV subsidies in the IRA do they have to get past a Biden veto? What is the overall durability of these provisions in a 1 or 2 chamber republican congress?
IIRC, we saw women from Optimus team present at AI day #2? Statistically, for every 7 men you should see 1 woman. I agree that having zero in their recruiting videos might give the wrong impression and is potentially a missed opportunity to appeal to about 15% of the potential workforce. Hopefully the top talent in the field, regardless of gender, is attracted to Tesla because of the appeal of the mission...These numbers are only vaguely relevant.
I'm talking about the Tesla Optimus team. They made a recruiting video. It showed not a single female. If there was a female on the team she would have been in the recruiting video. Tesla presumably gets the best engineers around, at least those who are happy with working all the time.
So I'm disappointed to see that there aren't a significant number of women on the team.
Correct. Up until AI day, no bot had ever walked via AI NN. BD (owned by Hyundai) does it via direct heuristic coding, and I'm sure a few other tricks, but they've recently started hiring AI folks...in August!I'm of the mind that Tesla will use AI to teach the robot how to walk naturally and efficiently. The current state of walking is just a simple machine walking to jumpstart the training.
If memory serves, that statistically means the markets should do better in a divided congress due to gridlock and large corporations being able to plan long term without the possibility of a new law that might hinder a business decision.So itll probably just be a lame duck session for the next two years.
Excellent and very helpful. So, based off your comment, does anyone else feel like Optimus's walk is the robotic equivalent to "the uncanny valley" and does it bother enough people that Tesla would go though the added expense to eliminate it?The human knee has a screw home mecanism where the tibia goes in external rotation compared to the femoral condyles. The geometry of the tibial plateau makes it easier and effortless to stay standing with a locked knees in full extension.
When rubbing you never go into full extension because you need your knee to using biarticular muscles like the hamstrings and the gastrocnemius to bounce and recoil 17% if the energy stored in the buarticular tendon collagen for more effective bouncing while running.
Optimus will never had a normal gait if they don’t force it to walk like a human being. If they use actuation motors in the joints there is no reason to reproduce a screw home mechanism as the motors just lock the joint in the desired position without having a muscle or tendon to fatigue to keep a joint in a desired position from a prolonged period of time.
This was also a publication I have made and presented on during my masters degree in training so I had to share that useless knowledge I have not used for over a decade.
Thank you for listening to me
I would prefer Optimus walk like this.
The stock market historically will react very positively if it is...So itll probably just be a lame duck session for the next two years.
Mentioning bi-articular muscle is dirty talk to me. They have a special place in balancing because the directly alter force direction away from center of mass. For instance when you trip, your rectus femoris flexes hip and extends knee to get your foot out in front of you. No brain needed.ting.
But your description makes the overall point I made before and in my Optimus analysis video - humans and humanoid robots will never be exactly the same so it is misguided to try to force them to have the same movements. Yes we can provide them a loose guide for movement but they have to derive the optimal movements for them through through smart design of optimization cost functions.