Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Hanging right near zero, folks. Shenanigan-tastic. I think we do have buyers out there, but they're getting knocked back by manipulations.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Without “showing my work”, I’ll go on record with $22.3B, 28.1% Auto GM, and $1.075 non-GAAP…and will hope to be very, very, very wrong…
@The Accountant - any interest in compiling a second table for those of us only offering our end results, not the requisite P&L?
Last edited:
So we are looking at around 90% YOY earnings growth, and a 50% market cap decline.... Sweet.
lafrisbee
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
WTI down nicely since Monday morning, getting itself back into the plummeting trend. My hope is this is related to to the bear short squeeze and TSLA earnings are another huge punch in the face for the "bad guys".
Unless someone is going to give this 52 year old man a multi-million dollar contract, paid up front, to pole dance at the club...Say it with me: "Buying Opportunity".
I don't have money for any more "buying opportunities"....
I just want to cash out what I have at SP 600....
Sooner rather than later....
Adding one more thought to this, that perhaps TheAccountant could comment on.
It's my lay understanding that other automakers link their R&D expenses to a specific product and amortize them across the lifecycle of the car (that's why they put them into the automotive gross margin calculation).
Like a lot of tech companies, Tesla takes an immediate expense on all (almost all?) R&D. This actually had the effect of dampening net income for a very long time, until, as Gigapress notes, those R&D expenses started to bear fruit. Secondly, it's what created all those tax loss carryforwards.
While it's just one factor, this early frontloading of R&D expense is now contributing to TSLA's current phase of high GAAP net income growth.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Wait a cotton-pickin' minute (Not racists my wife picked cotton on our last vacation to Alabama), did you actually intentionally or unintentionally come up with the greatest confustication I have ever read by a long shot on TMC. I think it qualifies as prose higher than poetry (so is TSLA going to $160/share).
To get "squat" and then reconstruct "analysts" as analcysts... which they know "intimately."
I laughed so hard I prolapsed a humorhoid.
Mod: too good to delete, but no-one may go any further down this ... hole. --ggr
Last edited by a moderator:
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Also I have no idea where GoJo is getting those gross margin numbers for other car companies from. Thin air? His bum? His source says "Company filings" so let's look at GM's last 10-Q for Q2 '22.
$32.6B auto revenue
$29.3B auto COGS
1-29.3/32.6 = 10% gross margin.
How is GoJo getting ~27% for his table? Even if we throw in GM Financial which gets better margins, the total is $35.8B rev, $31.4B cost, and 12% gross margin. I can't find GM reporting specific numbers for R&D anywhere in the 10-Q or earnings press releases. Unless I missed it, they don't even disclose this information.
For GM to get 27% gross margin on automotive without R&D included (supposing the $31.4B cost figure is including all R&D expenses) that would mean GM is spending $31.4B - (1-0.27)*$35.8B = $5.3B every quarter on R&D. If they're actually spending an order of magnitude more than Tesla on R&D for their piss-poor results, that's not really building the case that Tesla is overvalued relative to GM.
$32.6B auto revenue
$29.3B auto COGS
1-29.3/32.6 = 10% gross margin.
How is GoJo getting ~27% for his table? Even if we throw in GM Financial which gets better margins, the total is $35.8B rev, $31.4B cost, and 12% gross margin. I can't find GM reporting specific numbers for R&D anywhere in the 10-Q or earnings press releases. Unless I missed it, they don't even disclose this information.
For GM to get 27% gross margin on automotive without R&D included (supposing the $31.4B cost figure is including all R&D expenses) that would mean GM is spending $31.4B - (1-0.27)*$35.8B = $5.3B every quarter on R&D. If they're actually spending an order of magnitude more than Tesla on R&D for their piss-poor results, that's not really building the case that Tesla is overvalued relative to GM.
Last edited:
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
lafrisbee
Active Member
Grimm's Industrial Analcysts' Chearinghouse is where he gets all his numbers from.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I would pay good money to see you call him out on Twitter about it.
But then he would probably just block you.
I am pulling really hard for you to be able to cash out at $600.
For several reasons. But now maybe the best reason is to get the image of your first sentence out of my head.
Any idea why the markets reversed? Did a friend, of a friend, of the janitor, in the building next to the Fed, hear that someone overhead Powell talking to someone, while in the John...?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW he appears to be getting that info from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kevin Tynan (he cites him as the source in one of his tweets on this data)
Attachments
"Intelligence analyst" ... that should tell us all we need to know.
Only if you add guaranteed income to the mix...Lol, when HIGHER industrial output brings down U.S. markets, and all depends on MORE people sitting around watching TV instead of working (or living their lives), that means the commies have won...
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
