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Insurers have been trying to do this for some time by having folks agree to place a tracking device in their car or a phone app. I don’t know about the success of these programs but I’m going to guess they aren’t getting a lot of opt-in, and rather imperfect data out the other end. Tesla has the ability to measure and record parameters that these devices cannot (eg following distance). As such, the safety score is the first iteration of this methodology that could actually work accurately in terms of precisely risk-stratifying drivers. This has obvious implications for compelling insurance product but that’s a side effect IMHO.

It’s more about redefining safety statistics for the entire auto industry and using that to dictate (as much as possible) the discussion with regulators. If I am a self-driving competitor, or auto OEM, I would be wise to ensure, starting immediately, that my vehicles can measure the parameters Tesla is incorporating into this driver assessment.
The problem with insurers putting these boxes in subscribers' cars has to do with trust. First off, they promise a subscriber very low rates if they're safe.
On the one hand, makes perfect safe. Safe driver, no accidents, low rates.
On the other hand: Insurers are in it for the money. I strongly suspect the algorithms they use are obtuse and I'm sure they're all Trade Secrets with little to no observability by the subscriber. So.. one is going to find out how "SAFE" one is when the bill shows up and one will be very, very, unsafe with a bill that's 3x normal. It gets worse: I'm in NJ. Garden State Parkway has a 55 mph limit over most of its length. Go 55: And I guarantee one is a clear and present danger since the very slowest drivers go 60, the average is 65, and let's not talk about the maniacs pulling 85 on the straight. But.. ya think that the algorithms the insurers use will take account of that?
One agent with my insurance company was trying to talk me into one of these boxes. So, I asked, "What counts as unsafe driving?" She says, "Lots of turns." I say, "Sometimes I go on the semi-interstates around here; but it's more direct, sans tolls, and about the same time if I take local roads between home and work. There's lots of turns." She says, "This box is probably not for you."
So, it's trust. Does one trust insurers, the profit-oriented, public companies that they are, to play it straight?
Think of Banks. Large banks, in the U.S., have been proven over and over again to be completely untrustworthy, whose CEOs and BoD's should all have been jailed for Grand Theft Public ages ago. You trust insurers, built on the same financial system, regulated by many of the same corrupt government agencies, to be any different?
 
No one trusts insurance companies. (Exception: They trust them to deny claims.)

Agree, Tesla is much better positioned from a consumer trust perspective (in addition to technologically) to attempt this. And additionally, the long-term motivation and goals are different from insurance companies’. But a side benefit of this is it’s going to get insurance companies on Tesla’s side in the regulatory battle, whereas before I envisioned them being a silent observer.
 
The problem with insurers putting these boxes in subscribers' cars has to do with trust. First off, they promise a subscriber very low rates if they're safe.
On the one hand, makes perfect safe. Safe driver, no accidents, low rates.
On the other hand: Insurers are in it for the money. I strongly suspect the algorithms they use are obtuse and I'm sure they're all Trade Secrets with little to no observability by the subscriber. So.. one is going to find out how "SAFE" one is when the bill shows up and one will be very, very, unsafe with a bill that's 3x normal. It gets worse: I'm in NJ. Garden State Parkway has a 55 mph limit over most of its length. Go 55: And I guarantee one is a clear and present danger since the very slowest drivers go 60, the average is 65, and let's not talk about the maniacs pulling 85 on the straight. But.. ya think that the algorithms the insurers use will take account of that?
One agent with my insurance company was trying to talk me into one of these boxes. So, I asked, "What counts as unsafe driving?" She says, "Lots of turns." I say, "Sometimes I go on the semi-interstates around here; but it's more direct, sans tolls, and about the same time if I take local roads between home and work. There's lots of turns." She says, "This box is probably not for you."
So, it's trust. Does one trust insurers, the profit-oriented, public companies that they are, to play it straight?
Think of Banks. Large banks, in the U.S., have been proven over and over again to be completely untrustworthy, whose CEOs and BoD's should all have been jailed for Grand Theft Public ages ago. You trust insurers, built on the same financial system, regulated by many of the same corrupt government agencies, to be any different?

Agree completely. The insurance industry wants precise risk-stratification, but then will twist that for profit motive.
Still will get them on board with Tesla’s approach though.
 
It's not most people, according to surveys, at least not most Americans.


Tesla is helping wake people up, by showing them -- when they ride in Tesla cars or look at the stock chart -- that they've been told a pack of lies.
Hm. Guess I've been fooled then. Because most of the time when I find myself discussing a topic with someone, they either share a news snippet by memory, or bring up a phone article to prove a point (like how you responded with a link). From my vantage point, I can't say I believe that people don't trust the media--sure, they don't trust all media all the time, but there are styles that suit most people's worldviews most days, that they believe more or less with unquestioning acceptance. We all fool ourselves to some extent with our egos, biases, assumptions and misperceptions; that's probably why Elon takes the approach that he's wrong, with the goal of being less wrong.

What I like about Elon and Tesla is that they are outcome driven. They care about impacting the real world, right now, with measurable results, not empty words and showmanship. While the competition postures and shouts on the interwebs, Tesla quietly delivers.

In my opinion, outcome is what matters. That's why I read this forum. I actually get information that makes me money. That's also why I believe it's important to get people inside Teslas, because once they've actually sat inside a Tesla or driven one, hopefully their real world experience will take precedence over the virtual smoke-and-mirrors internet narrative.

Mark Twain said it best: “It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

Peace
 
I'm hyped up on this at the moment (Gali-style....might have something to do with the pack of sour gummies I just consumed) so last thought before I step away from the keyboard. The more I think about it, the safety score is kind of a “parting of the clouds” moment for me, and may possibly be so for the market with respect to the contribution of robotaxi/autonomy to TSLA valuation. IMO, the market has been waiting on three things in this arena:

1) Winning FSD, of course. Not incremental improvement on the march of 9s or an unprecedented approach as presented in AI Day, but actually demonstrably solving it as demonstrated by data. Market will be waiting for a while for this.

2) The robotaxi business plan: rollout, cost structure, app, anything that offers a glimpse into what this will look like. Tesla’s been tight-lipped about this aside from hinting the steering wheel and pedals may go away in a future vehicle, so the market doesn’t have anything tangible to go on except [mostly ARK’s] speculation.

3) How the regulatory situation will shake out. Yes, we know Tesla will use “data” and they have more of it than anyone else. But a clearer, tangible picture of Tesla’s strategy here is starting to emerge. Perhaps I am obtuse and am just now starting to see (rather than believe). Tesla has essentially landed the first regulatory blow, and that is to literally define the conversation in a way that nobody else can (er, NHTSA? This is literally your job and Tesla is about to do it for you) and that nobody else could dare to oppose. What are competitors going to do? Try to suggest alternative safety parameters? That would be silly since ONLY Tesla - not NHTSA, not Waymo, not GM - has the fleet data to validate any such suggestion and correlate it to adverse outcomes (Remember the fleet advantage we always talk about? It's not just for training AI!). What are opponents going to do? Argue for continued use of broader, meaningless statistics over more advanced, nuanced, 21st century measures of driver safety? I think the market is going to see where this is headed and it's going to move the stock. Yes, we have Q3/4 numbers to look forward to, and Austin/Berlin ramps, and expansion of FSD Beta and its continued progress, but to an extent those have been known catalysts. The safety score came out of left field and I think there's a good chance the implications will be noted by the market.
 
Found this article to be interesting. Are 45 nm to 90 nm chips what it holding up the traditional automakers? Autos of more recent design may have a design advantage when it comes to supply chain issues. Could this be why Tesla is able to increase production quarter after quarter? Older designs not ramping quite so quickly perhaps.

 
One of the first 10.1 YouTube videos I’ve watched was not very impressive. Probably a good idea to watch good and bad for objectivity. Kim’s style is critical and she does NOT give FSD a long leash just to see what it might do, rather she intervenes quickly and often. Either way, watch the first 3 to 4 minutes to see fairly poor performance in busy city driving. BTW, not all bad, there was excellent interaction with an illegal cyclist around 5:20…
Kim has reached Fred and Sawyer status for me. That is, I disregard whatever they post
 
One of the open questions around FSD has been: when will Tesla accept liability for accidents that happen with FSD engaged? The standard answer has been that Tesla will begin to accept liability once legal jurisdictions and regulatory bodies allow for it. But if FSD is ready before the regulations are, could Tesla take intermediate steps? This is partly a legal question, and partly a question of Tesla's confidence in FSD. I think it's relevant to TSLA investors because taking on FSD liability would be a product decision that affects valuation.

What if Tesla starts accepting responsibility for accidents that happen with FSD engaged for — and only for — customers of Tesla insurance who also maintain a good safety score? Legally FSD would still be an Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS), and the driver would still be liable, but Tesla Insurance would agree to compensate the legal "driver" under certain terms. This would probably increase uptake of both Tesla Insurance and FSD.

However I see limits to this approach. Tesla Insurance could pay for repairs, fines, legal costs, and civil damages "incurred" by a customer using FSD. But what would Tesla Insurance do for an FSD-using customer whose license was suspended or who received a jail sentence for something that happened while FSD was engaged? Are there legal jurisdictions where driving infractions are civil, so this wouldn't be a problem?

What if Tesla rolls out a softer version? Tesla Insurance would waive any deductibles and limits for accidents in which FSD was engaged, as long as the customer maintains a good safety score. That doesn't address liability directly, but it's a step in the right direction. Would it be enough to boost simultaneous uptake of FSD and Tesla Insurance?
 
Lol, you think a parking lot needs 5m of vertical fill? No, this is for heavy foundations. They'll need another logistics yard for the 2M Models 2 per year that Phase 3 will be cranking out by 2024-ish.

View attachment 714563

I hope by 2024 Tesla FSD can automate much of the factory-lot logistics. Would be especially nice to see new cars drive themselves to the Port, or even onto tractor-trailers.

Cheers!

Considering the close proximity to a river, this fill may also be something done to raise ground level enough to be above some designated flood level.
 
Kim has reached Fred and Sawyer status for me. That is, I disregard whatever they post
Kim and Chuck Cook both are much tougher on FSD and I dont know how I would be, but I have seen them just plain stop FSD in situations like left turns that I would have had no problem doing myself. Of course it isnt my car that could get hit. I think this is an issue FSD will face. It may want to do something that is safe, but some human judges that it isnt.
 
Considering the close proximity to a river, this fill may also be something done to raise ground level enough to be above some designated flood level.

That canal is not a river. Flood control is engineered in Lingang:

'SPONGE CITIES' ABSORB URBAN FLOODING WOES | epaper.chinadaily.com.cn

Lingang itself is build upon recovered land:

Land reclamation in China - Shanghai

It would not surprise me at all if China decides to build a deep-water port directly South of Giga Shanghai, just to ease logistics for the auto-export business.

Don't underestimate the Chinese. These people aren't afraid to move moutains, or to create new land where there was none before.
 
That canal is not a river. Flood control is engineered in Lingang:

'SPONGE CITIES' ABSORB URBAN FLOODING WOES | epaper.chinadaily.com.cn

Lingang itself is build upon recovered land:

Land reclamation in China - Shanghai

It would not surprise me at all if China decides to build a deep-water port directly South of Giga Shanghai, just to ease logistics for the auto-export business.

Don't underestimate the Chinese. These people aren't afraid to move moutains, or to create new land where there was none before.

Elon said it before in an interview, that he was impressed how all the people involved in the running of Shanghai, the gov, are all engineers.

They will do everything that physics don’t stop. And it’s still going to look like they break the physics.

“our goal is to be the best at manufacturing” - Elon