Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

How do you know Tesla is now mainstream?

When the price cut on the Model Y becomes a slickdeal with over 200+ ratings
Tesla: Model Y price cut $3000 , starts from $49990

To be fair, a decent chunk of the thread is still FUDsters and we few who debunk them.

Seriously. I remember when there was a thread on there about a Model 3 price drop about a year ago. Most of the thread was trashing Teslas. Guess folks are more “woke” now.

Maybe as a percent of posters- but the same anti-tesla trolls from the 3 thread are in that one too.

 

[EcoBruin]

Good amount of movement after-hours. Any new news?

 

[Cherry Wine]

I’m not so sure about this, Curt. With a lot of shares locked up in S&P index funds and other buy-and-hold funds, there will be a lot less trading shares left. This might actually cause stock movements to be magnified and cause more volatility.

I also don’t expect the shenigans to go away. A very high valuation, potentially higher than most other OEMs combined, will cause an even bigger division between believers and skeptics. Shorting at a high valuation is potentially very lucrative, so there will likely be plenty of takers. Manipulation and FUD will remain their main weapon.

I don't think the manipulation will stop until Tesla's dominance is cemented in the present. There are too many entrenched interests with too much to lose in the meantime -- not to mention said interests' believers.

EDIT: Not to mention, too many on WS making money on the volatility.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The flaw in this model is that you started from the market's SP value, not ARK's valuation for TSLA. Back in 2014, they actually accurately predicted Tesla would sell 500k vehicles in 2020 and stated that TSLA (~$265 back in Sept 2014) was fairly valued: EV Market: Tesla Has Lots of Room to Run

So if you take Q3 2014 as your starting point, then your model will more accurately reflect what ARK had been saying - that TSLA was undervalued for years.

It appears ARK did a reset for its 2020 assessment. For example, they use Tesla's Q4 2019 gross margins as an anchor for their Wright's Law reductions and GF Shanghai's financing levels for their capital efficiency assumptions. They also changed their assumptions on how Tesla would reinvest robotaxi profits. So combining it with their previous assessment would be a bit of apples-and-oranges.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Good amount of movement after-hours. Any new news?

It’s pretty clear that what happens in AH and premarket is increasingly irrelevant. Remember, we were +$30 last night in AH and +$60 this morning in premarket and we all know how that turned out....

 

[Big Time]

Mb it will naturally land on 1,600.00

 

[adiggs]

The difference is autonomy day was a demonstration of what they HOPE to achieve. Limited test drives under controlled conditions, lots of technical talk about board speeds and AI approaches...but not enough to see. We already know most analysts have a complete inability to visualize the future. To many FSD seems far-fetched.

Everything we've heard about battery day is that it will be a demonstration. Working product right there. Harder to turn that into some nebulous aspiration for the future.

From my point of view, and not meaning to diminish the value of battery day (at least to me), anything in the way of a battery demo is going to be hard to visualize.

For example:
- This battery packs more energy per unit weight (which has this consequence). We're excited, but that's info that goes onto a slide, not a very good demo.

- Or similarly, this battery has more energy per unit volume (as above).

- I know that many here are excited about the million mile battery. I'm interested as a technology - I think the market is going to give that a short term incremental value of 0 (it doesn't move the needs for the cars being sold today; if they've got evidence of volume also available and how that increases margins and revenue in the energy business, then that's good -- and again, it goes onto a slide).


I think the good demo will be Model S / X with new technology batteries. Tell us that the new battery technology enables 200kwh battery packs in the same space and weight as the current 100kwh packs; that we get higher discharge rates which means (faster accel, faster charging at supercharger), and then have the new and great S/X there on hand for test whooshes.

And tell us about how Tesla is entering the cell manufacturing business for this new tech, and aiming for scale, and how this is going to lower Teslas already low battery cost.


I guess the 2 things I hope to hear about at battery day, and which I believe can move the needs on the share price around that date are:
- bigger batteries in current form factors / weight (with better performance)
- Tesla entering cell manufacturing, enabling Tesla to lower their cost for battery packs to $x (Tesla reporting an actual $/kwh or whatever for their batteries - THAT will move the needle).


Otherwise, I see battery day as primarily information for those of us here who are long term investors. Battery day this year is going to be foundational to Teslas competitive position in 5 years.

 

[Mo City]

Autonomy day was brilliant. Not sure I would be 90% in TSLA LEAPS without it.

Nearly all of Elon's decisions must be made through the robotaxi lens. 1m miles is essential for vehicles covering 200k plus miles per year. Having said that, I don't think it will be anything like the main takeaway from Battery day.

People like you keep my small flame of hope of robotaxis burning.

 

[EVortex]

Lots of discussion about whether the SP is justified or not. SP represents the net present value of future earnings. No one knows for sure what those earnings will be - that’s why the analysts use models and their “credibility” to convince buyers and sellers what to do.

Tesla is unique because it is a disruptor and innovator that does not play by traditional rules and they are diversified across the value chain, across geographies, and across industries. The underlying vision is driven by technology and sustainable clean energy. How does an analyst use any model to determine SP from net present value of future earnings for Tesla with such an internal diversification, far-reaching vision, and the early proof of a strong ability to execute?

Simply, they can’t.

That’s why they make it up to fit their own self-serving interests. Why the FUD blitz? Why all of the talking heads telling you the stock is over-valued? What is their motivation? Lower the SP now to make more on the spread when the SP decreases and then increases again. They already know the SP will go up on future good news. Unfortunately, many buyers and sellers believe them and the SP is influenced accordingly, but only in the short term.

You all know I am long and all in on TSLA. Why? I don’t have a crystal ball or a fancy SP valuation model, but I do have the ability to research and apply critical thinking using real data to draw conclusions for myself. No other business that I know of is better positioned for success and dominance in the future than Tesla and with the added vision of technology and clean sustainable energy. No wonder the SP is what it is and climbing over time. It’s all about the future and with Tesla, it couldn’t be brighter!

 

[ggr]

Did Elon give a hint on twitter that Tesla isnt ready for SP500 yet?

His tweet in german that the baby doesnt use a spoon yet.

Like all good prognostications, it can be read either way. "Not ready for S&P" is one, "Not in it yet but soon will be" is another.

How old is X? Just under 2 months (May 29?)
What age to babies get their first taste of non-milk? I see some references to 4 months, but I know we started our kids on apple sauce at about 3 months. I choose to interpret his tweet as saying S&P inclusion around September.

 

[Curt Renz]

Very cool.

Do you know what % of Elon allocation is in each of these funds by company ?

i.e. what % TSLA vs SpaceX, vs Boring Co or Neuralink ? if those are even in there ?

All I was able to find was the 29.75% TSLA in BFGFX.

Baron Focused Growth Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/de...ed-Growth-Fund-Fact-Sheet-BFGIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

Baron Partners Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Baron-Partners-Fund-Fact Sheet-BPTIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

 

[smorgasbord]

Relax, Buckwheat. We’re on the same side, mostly.

It’s quite possible that you’re shares are dipping their toes close to 100x’s while mine are a mere 50x’s. Congratulations to us both!

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

How do you know Tesla is now mainstream?

When the price cut on the Model Y becomes a slickdeal with over 200+ ratings
Tesla: Model Y price cut $3000 , starts from $49990

Slickdeals threads on Tesla are memes. I honestly think the mods allow Tesla threads because they are laughing too hard to start banning everyone in those threads.

Every SD thread is a fistfight between craven bulls and crazed starving TSLAQ bears. No one ever talks about the deal itself.

 

[Mo City]

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

If TSLA explodes to ~$3,500 as you mentioned in an earlier post, I'll be the first one to cash in and re-enter lower. Don't see anything close to that happening but I'm ready just in case.

 

[Singuy]

Lots of discussion about whether the SP is justified or not. SP represents the net present value of future earnings. No one knows for sure what those earnings will be - that’s why the analysts use models and their “credibility” to convince buyers and sellers what to do.

Tesla is unique because it is a disruptor and innovator that does not play by traditional rules and they are diversified across the value chain, across geographies, and across industries. The underlying vision is driven by technology and sustainable clean energy. How does an analyst use any model to determine SP from net present value of future earnings for Tesla with such an internal diversification, far-reaching vision, and the early proof of a strong ability to execute?

Simply, they can’t.

That’s why they make it up to fit their own self-serving interests. Why the FUD blitz? Why all of the talking heads telling you the stock is over-valued? What is their motivation? Lower the SP now to make more on the spread when the SP decreases and then increases again. They already know the SP will go up on future good news.

You all know I am long and all in on TSLA. Why? I don’t have a crystal ball or a fancy SP valuation model, but I do have the ability to research and apply critical thinking using real data to draw conclusions for myself. No other business that I know of is better positioned for success and dominance in the future than Tesla and with the added vision of technology and clean sustainable energy. No wonder the SP is what it is and climbing. It’s all about the future and it couldn’t be brighter!

In an ideal world sure. But Tesla is highly manipulated to go up or down. No other stock over 200 billion will you see it rise 16% and then end down 6% all in the same day with zero news and pretty stable macros. So yeah it's pretty hard to pin a price on Tsla. Is the sp worth 1600? Or what about 1100? Or what about 2k? Well this stock can be all of these in a given week right now. Based on future earnings? What news is modifying future earnings this much in any given week right now?

 

[EVortex]

In an ideal world sure. But Tesla is highly manipulated to go up or down. No other stock over 200 billion will you see it rise 16% and then end down 6% all in the same day with zero news and pretty stable macros. So yeah it's pretty hard to pin a price on Tsla. Is the sp worth 1600? Or what about 1100? Or what about 2k? Well this stock can be all of these in a given week right now. Based on future earnings? What news is modifying future earnings this much in any given week right now?

I think we each need to decide the value for ourselves and our resulting strategies. Some can’t handle the the ups and downs with all of the manipulation. Others take it in stride. I am still learning and doing my best to embrace it, but it is hard sometimes. I have tried to time the market with limited success, but all it takes is one mistake to wipe out previous gains. I admit to having sold on the high and bought more shares on the low, but it always feels risky to me when I do it. So, I am now a HODLer. This strategy fits my long term view of Tesla’s future success and helps me deal with the emotional turmoil of the daily volatility and FUD storms. I like to joke about it and that helps too. So, I will keep holding on and enduring with my TMC investor friends.

 

[juanmedina]

 

[Doggydogworld]

SP represents the net present value of future earnings.

It's the NPV of all future dividends.

At least that's the financial value. Share prices include other kinds of value (emotional, etc.). Anyway, it's double counting to include the NPV of reinvested earnings.

 

[LJS22]

Good amount of movement after-hours. Any new news?

Yea...MM’s said they are sorry. It wasn’t suppose to drop that much. Promised to be better tomorrow. Some shorts closed out their positions now that they can salvage a few bucks and everyone has calls for this week. We are now in the hands of Tesla accounting and whatever Elon brings to the call tomorrow!

 

[vikings123]

Did Elon give a hint on twitter that Tesla isnt ready for SP500 yet?

His tweet in german that the baby doesnt use a spoon yet.

Analysis paralysis at work here. ZOMG Elon tweeted a code word and is giving us a hint, are we really going to show a GAAP profit tomorrow? Are we dropping big time tomorrow? This is nuts.

The twitter folks who analyze every single one of Elon’s tweets really need to chill. I’m not hoping for a negative GAAP number obviously but if the event with a 1%(ok maybe more 5%) chance comes true I’m ready to take advantage with some dry powder.