Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Well it wouldn’t be Tesla ER without a show.

The fact that it’s a one-stop shop for automobiles, solar, a place to park my investment dollars, AND entertainment I think reinforces @Krugerrand’s point about it not exactly being like other automakers...

 

[smorgasbord]

What I objected to was your TSLA SP market cap comparison to all other OEMS market caps, as if that was somehow a comparable metric. It’s not for all the reasons listed on the last several pages.

The context of that comparison was in response to a claim that Q3 results alone will drive TSLA to $2,000 per share. Mr Market will continue to look at comparable market caps and growth rates. Q3 alone, heck 2020 alone, will not show - in Mr Market’s view - that TSLA should be $2,000 a share this year.

Furthermore, even when Mr Market recognizes high growth they almost always underestimate that growth.

If Tesla is added to the S&P 500 by end of September, I do not believe TSLA will at any time be above $1999 In November or December this year.

Again, this is not because of my view of Tesla’s future, but because of my view of Mr Market’s view.

 

[Mo City]

OK, but the analysts on Wall Street don’t think so and aren’t bidding shares up in anticipation of Battery Day.

You would have a point if Wall Street analysts' opinions had anything to do with the market valuation of TSLA.

I was merely pointing out Autonomy Day may not be a predictor for Battery Day. TBD. Let's discuss again as the time approaches and afterwards.

 

[lascavarian]

New alloys for CT!

I have to wonder if this might result in a purchase option. This might be an opportunity for margin enhancement where different alloys command a premium. It's exciting. This metal body is going to bend some minds.

 

[ABCTG]

Interesting @ABCTG - BFGFX has a 29.75% weighting in TSLA.

Do you know their Fee ?

EDIT : Found it 1.35%

I bought both BFGFX and BPTRX for the SpaceX shares, and sent Baron funds an email asking them to add more SpaceX. Ron Baron is fully investing in Elon, he knows what Elon is capable of, and isn't letting it slip away, like he regrets doing with some other disruptive/innovative, CEOs/companies. He even made the mistake of buying and selling TSLA stock in the early days.
Wish I could invest more money in SpaceX, heard Gali at Hyperchange is looking into it but haven't followed up on it yet.

We all know that the top talent wants to work at Tesla and SpaceX
I remember an interview Elon did with Everyday Astronaut where Elon was thanking his engineers and team and was almost embarrassed about SpaceX taking up the best engineers.

And with Elon planning to send cargo to Mars in 2022, and humans in 2024, how exciting is that?
SpaceX Mars city: Elon Musk confirms he's sticking to ambitious launch date

 

[ninpb]

I will let you know Friday.

Would be nice if you told us now.

 

[agastya]

How do you know Tesla is now mainstream?

When the price cut on the Model Y becomes a slickdeal with over 200+ ratings
Tesla: Model Y price cut $3000 , starts from $49990

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I bought both BFGFX and BPTRX for the SpaceX shares, and sent Baron funds an email asking them to add more SpaceX. Ron Baron is fully investing in Elon, he knows what Elon is capable of, and isn't letting it slip away, like he regrets doing with some other disruptive/innovative, CEOs/companies. He even made the mistake of buying and selling TSLA stock in the early days.
Wish I could invest more money in SpaceX, heard Gali at Hyperchange is looking into it but haven't followed up on it yet.

We all know that the top talent wants to work at Tesla and SpaceX
I remember an interview Elon did with Everyday Astronaut where Elon was thanking his engineers and team and was almost embarrassed about SpaceX taking up the best engineers.

And with Elon planning to send cargo to Mars in 2022, and humans in 2024, how exciting is that?
SpaceX Mars city: Elon Musk confirms he's sticking to ambitious launch date

Very cool.

Do you know what % of Elon allocation is in each of these funds by company ?

i.e. what % TSLA vs SpaceX, vs Boring Co or Neuralink ? if those are even in there ?

All I was able to find was the 29.75% TSLA in BFGFX.

 

[jerry33]

It’s likely my oldest shares are older than yours

Has the warranty on those shares expired?

 

[clmason]

The context of that comparison was in response to a claim that Q3 results alone will drive TSLA to $2,000 per share. Mr Market will continue to look at comparable market caps and growth rates. Q3 alone, heck 2020 alone, will not show - in Mr Market’s view - that TSLA should be $2,000 a share this year.

Furthermore, even when Mr Market recognizes high growth they almost always underestimate that growth.

If Tesla is added to the S&P 500 by end of September, I do not believe TSLA will at any time be above $1999 In November or December this year.

Again, this is not because of my view of Tesla’s future, but because of my view of Mr Market’s view.

I believe the pop above $2K will be due to share scarcity, not about how mr or mrs market compares to and prices against other companies.

 

[Buckminster]

I believe it is likely Battery Day will offer more digestible information for the market than Autonomy Day. That's assuming numbers are given for one or all of costs, production ramp, density, charging speed, etc. Autonomy Day was a waste of time IMO because the concepts were far too nebulous and incomprehensible.

The million mile battery talk is overrated because it doesn't really add much value IMO. I read somewhere nobody (including Tesla) wants CATL's million mile batteries because they cost more and Chinese consumers won't pay extra for them. I'm sure CATL will let everyone know when someone actually buys them.

Autonomy day was brilliant. Not sure I would be 90% in TSLA LEAPS without it.

Nearly all of Elon's decisions must be made through the robotaxi lens. 1m miles is essential for vehicles covering 200k plus miles per year. Having said that, I don't think it will be anything like the main takeaway from Battery day.

 

[woodisgood]

How do you know Tesla is now mainstream?

When the price cut on the Model Y becomes a slickdeal with over 200+ ratings
Tesla: Model Y price cut $3000 , starts from $49990

Seriously. I remember when there was a thread on there about a Model 3 price drop about a year ago. Most of the thread was trashing Teslas. Guess folks are more “woke” now.

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess you missed my post earlier today where I said I’m an original Roadster owner who put his Battery Warranty money into TSLA instead.
It’s likely my oldest shares are older than yours, so spare me the lecture.

Relax, Buckwheat. We’re on the same side, mostly.

It’s quite possible that you’re shares are dipping their toes close to 100x’s while mine are a mere 50x’s. Congratulations to us both!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Many remember last January's ARK-Invest analysis of possible TSLA SP trajectories during the next five years:
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I've modeled time-histories of these scenarios as simple exponential SP functions starting at the beginning of 2020 Q1 (SP of $425) through the end of 2024 Q4 (ending at ARK's price target). These appear linear in the following semi-log plot. I've also started plotting the actual Tesla SP on a quarterly basis.

View attachment 567201

Note we are about 6 months ahead of ARK's most optimistic "Golden Goose" scenario.

The flaw in this model is that you started from the market's SP value, not ARK's valuation for TSLA. Back in 2014, they actually accurately predicted Tesla would sell 500k vehicles in 2020 and stated that TSLA (~$265 back in Sept 2014) was fairly valued: EV Market: Tesla Has Lots of Room to Run

So if you take Q3 2014 as your starting point, then your model will more accurately reflect what ARK had been saying - that TSLA was undervalued for years.

Edit: Here's a redo of your log chart with a Q1 2015 (arbitrarily chosen low SP point) start of CAGR calculation:

Note: 42% CAGR line shows SP should be ~1600, while 52% CAGR line shows SP of ~2400!! The difference is the ending SP of $10k or $22 by Q4 2024! Of course, this is just playing with numbers. Consume this data with a mountain of salt!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The likely addition of TSLA into the S&P 500 should calm much of the manipulation and volatility. Steadier share price growth would likely attract more buy-and-hold institutions and individuals.

I’m not so sure about this, Curt. With a lot of shares locked up in S&P index funds and other buy-and-hold funds, there will be a lot less trading shares left. This might actually cause stock movements to be magnified and cause more volatility.

I also don’t expect the shenigans to go away. A very high valuation, potentially higher than most other OEMs combined, will cause an even bigger division between believers and skeptics. Shorting at a high valuation is potentially very lucrative, so there will likely be plenty of takers. Manipulation and FUD will remain their main weapon.

 

[Krugerrand]

New alloys for CT!

I have to wonder if this might result in a purchase option. This might be an opportunity for margin enhancement where different alloys command a premium. It's exciting. This metal body is going to bend some minds.

As long as it remains 9mm bulletproof, I’m good.

 

[dl003]

Would be nice if the reduced float increased TSLA borrowing cost. Significantly.
Though, wouldn't the rule of demand : supply dictate that there will be more eager buyers to scoop up the shares that MMs create out of thin air for manipulation, thereby making it more costly for them?

 

[Maxstorz]

Did Elon give a hint on twitter that Tesla isnt ready for SP500 yet?

His tweet in german that the baby doesnt use a spoon yet.

Coded langage to go under SEC

 

[Buckminster]

86400 seconds to go. Some men think about TSLA 8000 a day apparently.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Coded langage to go under SEC

the baby doesn't use the S&Poon yet ?