Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

We need to consider Mr Market has a multiple personality disorder... even when people are doing the same thing, they are doing it for different reasons, with different levels of resolve and foresight.

S&P inclusion after Q2 results is possible, S&P incursion after Q3 results is a virtual certainty...

Some recent buyers are front running S&P inclusion, others are shorts covering, most of those shorts, will not open new positions..

Beyond S&P inclusion, we need to talk about demand problems...

Tesla has too much demand, others have too little, Tesla is addressing their problem:-
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1285411355563102209

Tesla itself is a once in a generation long term event...short term Mr Market is prone to being erratic and changing his mind frequently... long term the numbers count, production, revenue, profits...

Consider:-
1) Fremont with all of those production lines fully ramped, Per day 1,700 Model Y , 700 Model 3, 300 Model S/X.
2) GF Shanghai Model Y production will start Q3/Q4 2020 or Q1 2021.
3) Semi production is soon starting.
4) Battery Day and the implications.
5) Further improvements in FSD.
6) Likely expansion of solar sales,,, due to low prices.

This isn't a company with static revenue growth, it is a company with dynamic revenue growth...

There might be an opportunity for some sensible profit taking if the price goes crazy after S&P 500 inclusion, but there is no guarantee that it will, ... crazy high prices might convince shorts it is worth another shot...

 

[elasalle]

Did Elon give a hint on twitter that Tesla isnt ready for SP500 yet?

His tweet in german that the baby doesnt use a spoon yet.

Selling Short Shorts and then reverting to Spoons to say "not ready" - would be the long burn of the century

Could also mean S&P not ready for Tesla, asking to do a Cap raise and offer some shares ... so baby not ready for Spoon

 

[wipster]

Baron Focused Growth Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/de...ed-Growth-Fund-Fact-Sheet-BFGIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

Baron Partners Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Baron-Partners-Fund-Fact Sheet-BPTIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

Thanks for the info Curt. Surprised the Tesla was so high in both and that they had SpaceX holdings in both as well.

 

[ABCTG]

Very cool.

Do you know what % of Elon allocation is in each of these funds by company ?

i.e. what % TSLA vs SpaceX, vs Boring Co or Neuralink ? if those are even in there ?

All I was able to find was the 29.75% TSLA in BFGFX.

Under the heading Holdings, go to All Holdings. SpaceX is approx. 4-5% in each fund. (not enough)

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Baron Focused Growth Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/de...ed-Growth-Fund-Fact-Sheet-BFGIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

Baron Partners Fund - June 30: https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Baron-Partners-Fund-Fact Sheet-BPTIX-6.30.20_0.pdf

Very helpful - Thanks @Curt Renz

 

[Singuy]

I think we each need to decide the value for ourselves and our resulting strategies. Some can’t handle the the ups and downs with all of the manipulation. Others take it in stride. I am still learning and doing my best to embrace it, but it is hard sometimes. I have tried to time the market with limited success, but all it takes is one mistake to wipe out previous gains. I admit to having sold on the high and bought more shares on the low, but it always feels risky to me when I do it. So, I am now a HODLer. This strategy fits my long term view of Tesla’s future success and helps me deal with the emotional turmoil of the daily volatility and FUD storms. I like to joke about it and that helps too. So, I will keep holding on and enduring with my TMC investor friends.

Or you know it's all because of fund managers buying in as Rob pointed out they don't have to buy after S&P announcement but can buy prior. SP going out of wack every week is probably the result of low float of Tesla in conjunction of large S&P fund managers pulling the trigger. Probably what happened two Fridays ago when the SP jumped to 1500 from 1400 while someone in the know knew and bought some crazy calls Thursday.

But yeah the volatility we are seeing is most likely decoupled from any kind of fundamentals as the dynanmic of TSLA price action is very complex currently.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Daily - this morning:

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

what happens to the stock price of S&P 500 index funds like VOO once the TSLA inclusion announcement hits ?

 

[Krugerrand]

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

How’d you know Pokey was my favorite? Gumby was cool, but the pony is always better.

Meh. Easy come, easy go. It’ll go back up and far exceed your sell point. And frankly, when I’m looking at this many millions, I really don’t care about a few here or there this year.

You want to swing your key fob around some more or are we good? I’ve made a note that you lack a sense of humor and I sincerely apologize for yanking your chain. Won’t happen again.

 

[EVortex]

It's the NPV of all future dividends.

At least that's the financial value. Share prices include other kinds of value (emotional, etc.). Anyway, it's double counting to include the NPV of reinvested earnings.

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is this a serious technical analysis or parody? I can never tell.

Would it be more obvious if he said 'sickle and hammer'?

Agree, folks here need to use a /S 'cuz outliars....

Cheers!

 

[LAexpress]

I believe the pop above $2K will be due to share scarcity, not about how mr or mrs market compares to and prices against other companies.

I greatly appreciate and agree with this message. Thank you! How many messages do I need before I am eligible to hit a like button?

 

[Prunesquallor]

The flaw in this model is that you started from the market's SP value, not ARK's valuation for TSLA. Back in 2014, they actually accurately predicted Tesla would sell 500k vehicles in 2020 and stated that TSLA (~$265 back in Sept 2014) was fairly valued: EV Market: Tesla Has Lots of Room to Run

So if you take Q3 2014 as your starting point, then your model will more accurately reflect what ARK had been saying - that TSLA was undervalued for years.

Edit: Here's a redo of your log chart with a Q1 2015 (arbitrarily chosen low SP point) start of CAGR calculation:
View attachment 567293

Note: 42% CAGR line shows SP should be ~1600, while 52% CAGR line shows SP of ~2400!! The difference is the ending SP of $10k or $22 by Q4 2024! Of course, this is just playing with numbers. Consume this data with a mountain of salt!

Interesting. After actually reading the link you posted, I can see the logic. I’ll rerun my numbers for fun.

 

[tslagreen]

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

 

[tslagreen]

The difference between us, Pokey, is that I’ll sell some/most of those 100X on the pop to 150X and you’ll still be holding yours down to 30X.

S&P inclusion of TSLA is a once in a generation, but ultimately short-lived, event.

Ok, Coolio. Must be nice to perfectly time all your trades.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think it's pretty easy to understand this nosebleed valuation by simply looking at the current bear analysis and wider investing environment.

1) No bear "analyst" is making a sensible case for their position right now. At no time in the past was that the case. There was always a profitability, deliverability, or quality uncertainty that was perfectly rational to question. Now......nothing. All they have is "It's too high" or "It's just a story stock". That's not an argument for a position.

2) Fossil fuels are done. Last fall the investing world clearly abandoned fracking investment and now that covid's hit it's clear there's little money to be made investing in any new supply ever again. As much as we like to criticize these pricks, they know money and are willing to abandon a 100yr source of great returns if it looks like the music's gonna stop. That means less FUD, manipulation, and loading of the spring(since big money was the source). Here we are in nothing more than an extended unloading of the long-compressed spring, that happens to be in the most cash flooded investment environment of all time.

 

[dl003]

what happens to the stock price of S&P 500 index funds like VOO once the TSLA inclusion announcement hits ?

There wont be any change since their AUM and number of shares outstanding will be unchanged

 

[MC3OZ]

2) Fossil fuels are done.

i would say Fossil Fuels are being done with Plaid level acceleration.

Up to now, Tesla has been cell constrained and other car makers have been in "go slow mode" on their BEV programs, There is evidence both of these things have changed, or will soon change.. Plenty of evidence that BEVs at the right price will quickly obsolete ICE...

Money invested in Fossil Fuels... needs to be moved, before it evaporates like Petrol on a hot sunny day..

 

[jerry33]

I greatly appreciate and agree with this message. Thank you! How many messages do I need before I am eligible to hit a like button?

It's a random number to prevent abuse. No one knows the exact number you will require.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

i would say Fossil Fuels are being done with Plaid level acceleration.

Up to now, Tesla has been cell constrained and other car makers have been in "go slow' on their BEV programs, There is evidence both of these things have changed, or will soon change.. Plenty of evidence that BEVs at the right price will quickly obsolete ICE...

Money invested in Fossil Fuels... needs to be moved before it evaporates like Petrol on a hot sunny day..

This is why I'd like to see a cash raise done immediately, the tipping point has been reached. There's no amount of battery capacity Tesla could add that would be too much. So why not start work on 4 more Gigafactories with an $8B raise?