Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tes La Ferrari]

Perhaps the baby will start eating with the S&Poon soon after the earnings report.

The baby might need only a few days to learn. Kinda like a software update.

It is Elon's baby after all.

 

[wipster]

I believe this song truly represents how we are all feeling about the Tesla Financials presentation tomorrow and potential S&P inclusion:

 

[smorgasbord]

Ok, Coolio. Must be nice to perfectly time all your trades.

Better than incorrectly extrapolating.

As in “I guess you missed the once in a generation part.”

 

[MC3OZ]

This is why I'd like to see a cash raise done immediately, the tipping point has been reached. There's no amount of battery capacity Tesla could add that would be too much. So why not start work on 4 more Gigafactories with an $8B raise?

Those that are saying Tesla will be generating a lot of cash from Q3 onward are right...

But the scale of the opportunity, the level of Tesla preparedness, and the pay back on any money spent on sensible expansion now, is mind blowing...

It is hard to know how big Tesla can go, and how soon they can do it.. I think battery raw materials are a likely limiting factor, that is why some investment in mines and processing would not surprise me..

But IMO if the S&P committee requests a secondary raise, then that is an opportunity to get useful capital at a good price, and it is worth getting S&P 500 inclusion over the line..

it is going to take some time for people's thinking to catch up with the new reality... everything is changing... the world will be very different in 20 years time.

 

[wipster]

This is why I'd like to see a cash raise done immediately, the tipping point has been reached. There's no amount of battery capacity Tesla could add that would be too much. So why not start work on 4 more Gigafactories with an $8B raise?

Or better yet, kill two birds with one stone by increasing the number of shares outstanding to facilitate S&P inclusion, thereby raising a substantial amount of cash for building additional gigafactories...

 

[dakh]

If you buy TSLA stock after earning calls do you fall in the investor category instead of speculative

If it goes up and you buy, you're an investor. If it goes down and you buy, clearly, you're a speculator!

 

[dc_h]

Just got back from picking up my S after being without it for a week. FINALLY upgraded and running HW3 and MCU2! Need to put it through my torture test drive this weekend. Can already tell it's MUCH better that my orig Dec '16 autopilot H/W...

But then I got home, and with minutes to spare before the market closed, saw what you all did! Shame on all of you!

I guess it's my fault for not asking you all to hold the fort before I ran out the door...

Okay, damage control: There were many people picking up their new cars! While I didn't go in to count heads (forgot my stupid mask in a moment of exuberance as I left!) I'd say there were 3-4 picking up outside as I drove by, and 6-10? inside waiting, although I don't know for sure if they were accepting delivery, or waiting for their cars being serviced. I suspect the former, as picking up from service you're directed to wait in your car for a call after checking in.

So for a Tuesday afternoon, in light of COVID-19, I'd say the place was hopping with soon to be Tesla owners! Expecting good news tomorrow.

Maybe if you had gotten a colonoscopy instead of car service tsla would have been up $142!

 

[dakh]

China sold out, Berlin going well, more hints on battery day, good things about solar, demand confirmation. All those have to happen. This is what Cramer expects from ER. https://www.thestreet.com/video/what-jim-cramers-watching-when-tesla-reports-earnings

So basically he is not in on the price run-up being just a technicality of S&P inclusion, he is talking actual facts about the business.

 

[adiggs]

I greatly appreciate and agree with this message. Thank you! How many messages do I need before I am eligible to hit a like button?

Pretty sure it's 5, so you're practically there.

 

[agastya]

Cannot believe how far up the backside some of these CNBS peeps are, that they cannot see the bleeding obvious.

When asked whether they would take a bet on GM or TSLA on a 3 year horizon, one of them couldn't choose since it was a tough call, and the other (Tim) opined GM

Options traders bet Tesla could add $75 billion in market cap by Friday

 

[dakh]

The Race to Beat Tesla at Its Own Game - DER SPIEGEL - International

Its new e-car, the ID.3, was supposed to be a computer on wheels, but at the time of its launch in September, the smartphone connection, App-Connect, won't be working yet. In order to fix the problem, the car will have to be brought to a repair garage - unlike Teslas, whose software can be updated remotely.

To prevent this from happening again in the future, Duesmann, VW's chief developer, is working on completely new software. He has around 5,000 employees at his disposal to help him. The whole thing will take years to finish. But already, the endeavor is wearing down top personnel. The VW Group's head of software, Christian Senger, had to step down just two weeks after the project officially began.

Hmm so looks like they'll ship 'em as-is and then take a couple years to re-write the whole mess. I'm sure customers will be thrilled to know that the software update is coming.

 

[pz1975]

The Race to Beat Tesla at Its Own Game - DER SPIEGEL - International



Hmm so looks like they'll ship 'em as-is and then take a couple years to re-write the whole mess. I'm sure customers will be thrilled to know that the software update is coming.

It’s okay. They will get half-price oil changes every time they bring in the car for software updates.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Race to Beat Tesla at Its Own Game - DER SPIEGEL - International



Hmm so looks like they'll ship 'em as-is and then take a couple years to re-write the whole mess. I'm sure customers will be thrilled to know that the software update is coming.

Humorous, but flawed analog:

Often, the US Mars probes are launched before the spacecraft/rover software is ready. Since it’s ~9 month cruise, the project development budget can be “smoothed” by delaying the software development until it is actually needed.

However: OTA is definitely required.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Jul 21, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Ambushed by Analyst; Bear Trap Loaded"

Traded: $26,091,691,612.95 ($26.09 B)
Volume: 16,169,223
VWAP: $1,613.66

Closing SP / VWAP: 97.17%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $290.892B / $174.211B = 166.98%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $238.47B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $151.30B*
*Nota Bene: $150B 6-mth Mkt Cap was exceeded today Tue, Jul 21, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 40.3% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.0% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.96% of Short Volume (58th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Elon earned his 2nd Tranche today"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Those that are saying Tesla will be generating a lot of cash from Q3 onward are right...

But the scale of the opportunity, the level of Tesla preparedness, and the pay back on any money spent on sensible expansion now, is mind blowing...

It is hard to know how big Tesla can go, and how soon they can do it.. I think battery raw materials are a likely limiting factor, that is why some investment in mines and processing would not surprise me..

But IMO if the S&P committee requests a secondary raise, then that is an opportunity to get useful capital at a good price, and it is worth getting S&P 500 inclusion over the line..

it is going to take some time for people's thinking to catch up with the new reality... everything is changing... the world will be very different in 20 years time.

Ok, but what if Tesla doesn’t want to raise money because they have enough and they can’t go any faster than they already are going.

What’s the incentive for Tesla to do something they don’t want? What exactly does the S&P500 have to offer Tesla? That would interest Elon? Can they offer SP stability for his shareholders? Can they offer no shorting of the stock?

 

[JusRelax]

Those that are saying Tesla will be generating a lot of cash from Q3 onward are right...

But the scale of the opportunity, the level of Tesla preparedness, and the pay back on any money spent on sensible expansion now, is mind blowing...

It is hard to know how big Tesla can go, and how soon they can do it.. I think battery raw materials are a likely limiting factor, that is why some investment in mines and processing would not surprise me..

But IMO if the S&P committee requests a secondary raise, then that is an opportunity to get useful capital at a good price, and it is worth getting S&P 500 inclusion over the line..

it is going to take some time for people's thinking to catch up with the new reality... everything is changing... the world will be very different in 20 years time.

My take on this is that I don't think Tesla is ready to expand this much right now. They are in the process of building a prototype battery cell manufacturing line in Fremont right now. They will want to make sure to work out all the kinks in that line and ensure reproducibility of the line before they significantly expand. Considering cell manufacturing is a brand new process for them, they probably see it as an unknown as to how long it will take to do this. A large infusion of cash will probably not be necessary until they are ready to manufacture terafactories.

 

[Joe F]

Maybe if you had gotten a colonoscopy instead of car service tsla would have been up $142!

Perhaps, but it will all work out in the end.

 

[Words of HABIT]

IMHO too much emphasis has placed on Tesla joining the S&P500. If they join, great, if not, whoopee doo. Tesla does not need to be added to their index to grow market cap. Same as Tesla does not need to buy their way into International Car Shows and advertise to grow their market share. There are so many catalysts to support the rise in TSLA SP discussed at length on this thread. I expect Tesla to release Q2 profit by a wide margin >$200M, while OEM will each lose billions in the same quarter selling 10X the amount of vehicles than Tesla. What is it going to take for investors to understand if not this?

Yes, for newbies the rise in SP in 2020 from $443 to $1568 seems too much too soon and unsustainable.

For those of us who who saw SP in March 2014 at $260 go nowhere for five and a half years until October 2019. Meanwhile Tesla laying out the groundbreaking infrastructure and technological advantage day by day by day during this time while everyone was laughing at them.

Perspective. Tesla's accomplishments over more than the last six years have resulted in a six fold increase in their SP. TSLA is just starting to make up for a lot of lost ground. It is payback time. My hard earned investments are with Tesla and only with Tesla.

Taking a quote from Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow, TSLAQ and naysayers are "blind to their blindness". Those that see will prosper. Disclaimer, Long all things Tesla. Q2 Results. Bring it on!

EDIT: Corrected misspelling of whoopee doo.

 

[MC3OZ]

Ok, but what if Tesla doesn’t want to raise money because they have enough and they can’t go any faster than they already are going.

What’s the incentive for Tesla to do something they don’t want? What exactly does the S&P500 have to offer Tesla? That would interest Elon? Can they offer SP stability for his shareholders? Can they offer no shorting of the stock?

It is certainly possible that they can generate more cash than they can spend and don't need to raise, I suspect we will not know the answer until after Battery Day.

But I'm not sure Tesla does or doesn't want to raise cash, more cash in the bank is always handy... especially when expanding rapidly..

S&P 500, brings in a solid class of "buy and hold investors" and signals the maturity of the company to the slower learners.. It probably burns the rest of the shorts..

The share price is decoupled from the business, for the business, revenue and sales are what mostly count,,,
So possibly S&P 500 means fewer crap FUD articles in the press, and perhaps a bit more acceptance of the Tesla brand by a wider portion of the car buying public...

For the S&P 500 committee and the Index Funds, Tesla brings an opportunity to grow member funds and diversify away from risky Fossil Fuel assets...

If both sides are playing the long game, they do a deal, because Tesla in the S&P 500 is in the interests of both parties... the only clear losers are those that have already lost... the Shorts and the Fossil Fuel industry...

EDIT:: I will say the Index Funds need Tesla in the index more than Tesla needs to be in the index, but they don't need it at any price.....

 

[kcveins]

I have about $500 - $1000 each sitting in cash in multiple accounts that can't be transferred to 1 account (without triggering negative tax consequences)

My brokerage doesn't do fractional shares so can't do that.

I was going to buy ARKK, for the TSLA exposure - or another innovative company rather than sitting in cash.

I found these ETF's that contain TSLA

https://www.etf.com/stock/TSLA

Wondering what fellow TMC'ers do in this situation. Any recommendations to get more innovative growth exposure like TSLA or fractional TSLA via ETF?

My current 401-K plan (went into effect this year) does not allow direct investment in stocks or ETFs, only mutual funds.
I was able to get into Baron Partners Retail Fund BPTRX this year - have gained 47% via cost averaging in so far this year


edit:
Looks like a lot of people already posted this in the intervening 6 hours... ;-)