Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Glamisduner]

If you lose money on investments, you typically won't be liable for taxes - so yes, risk taking does get incentivized. Only gains are taxed, and in progressive tax brackets. (You can also carry losses forward, which too incentivizes risk taking over fixed income generation.)

Contrast this with a 30% flat tax on revenue in Apple-land, which you have to pay to Apple even if your app is unprofitable.

The right to earn money on the very lucrative U.S. market is taxed very favorably compared to the right to earn money on the Apple market.

The "U.S. government" in this case is simply the representative agent of the owner-shareholders of the U.S. market. Owner-shareholders are all U.S. citizens, who each got a single non-transferrable voting share at birth, and who can change the tax system with a majority vote.

Why shouldn't shareholders have the right to ask for fair fees and profit sharing to access a very lucrative market they own? In fact your anti-taxation argument is weirdly anti-capitalist and communistic...

I don't like Apple land. Nope not for me.

 

[UncaNed]

It is a trading account. Every trade is taxable. All short term. I consider it more of a gambling addiction with good odds. LOL. Robinhood does not offer retirement accounts yet.

I was planning on holding the (for all intensive purposes) free TSLA shares but right now I can buy them back elsewhere cheaper. These swings are great for a trading account.

Where can I buy TSLA cheaper than free for intensive purposes?

 

[vikings123]

More sellers than buyers.

It looks like my skepticism of the strength of this rally was justified.

I think there are some nefarious traders out there that like to kill TSLA strength by accenting the normal buying pressure by buying aggressively early knowing this will cause a strong rally. Then, they stop buying and let the share price continue to rise. When they figure it's gone as high as it's going to go, they sell hard. This causes the price to decline rapidly. If they see buying pressure step in they buy hard, accenting the move up, then they dump hard (for a profit). The whiplash makes other buyers think twice about buying (too chaotic). They have retained some shares so they sell hard again to cause an exit stampede.

Overall, TSLA has buying pressure but these nefarious characters are able to kill what would have been a nice steady rise and profit at the same time. They can use their profits to create more fear by selling at lower prices (at a loss) to drive the price down further and create fear uncertainty and doubt.

I think you are describing a classic pump and dump scheme. I also think it’s getting manipulated both ways. For example during premarket I have seen that big sell orders suddenly appear in the trading book to keep the SP under control.

If this is a coordinated pump and dump strategy that the shorts and traders are engaging in it comes with a lot of risks. They are also taking advantage of the volatility in the markets.

 

[StealthP3D]

Parts are not stored painted.

Each batch of cars of the same color are a slightly different shade.

Cars in the sun fade.

Every time a new part is installed on a car it must be color matched and custom painted for that particular car.

Adding colors adds complexity to the paint booth but does nothing for adding complexity for storing parts.

Well, the people who run the company would beg to differ with you:

On an earnings call, Tesla executives said they would stock more spare parts at services centers to address this issue. Specifically, the company plans to stock front and rear fascia in common colors, so they can fix bodywork issues in 15 to 20 minutes.

Tesla plans to double service capacity by adding shifts, stocking more spare parts

I chose to believe Tesla's management on this. More colors definitely equal more stock around the world. And these are not small parts! Tesla is successful in a large part because they focus on things that really matter. As long as they can sell every car they can make they are not going to complicate it by offering different colors every three months (as suggested). It strains the supply chain and lengthens common fender-bender repairs.

Since Q1 is seasonally the lowest demand I would like to see a rotating 6th color every Q1 to boost demand.

Telling people to get a $3k-$6k wrap is like telling customers to go get a BMW or Porsche. Some will take you up on the suggestion.

That's fine, they will end up with an inferior car (at least the color will be right). The Model T was the most successful car of its era (by far). Other cars came in different colors but the Model T only came in black. And they sold every one they could make. At one point, the model T had 60% market share (all black). If you wanted tan or white or silver you had to buy a competitor's vehicle (or paint it). Ford didn't care, they had the best car on the market and were selling every one they could make and expanding production as rapidly as physically possible, much like Tesla.

It's simple really, just like every other car on the market, if you want a color that's not offered, you can buy another car (or paint or wrap the car in the color of your choice). To cater to idiots who select the car they buy based on color would be utterly foolish at this stage of Tesla's expansion.

 

[Thekiwi]

I don't like Apple land. Nope not for me.

News flash - google charges the exact same rate (30%) as Apple. Only one of them also uses your personal data to monetize ads targeted at you, and it’s not the one named after a fruit.

Given google owns waymo, it also wouldn’t surprise me if they had a special data collection program for those android owners who have the Tesla app installed.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think you are describing a classic pump and dump scheme. I also think it’s getting manipulated both ways. For example during premarket I have seen that big sell orders suddenly appear in the trading book to keep the SP under control.

If this is a coordinated pump and dump strategy that the shorts and traders are engaging in it comes with a lot of risks. They are also taking advantage of the volatility in the markets.

I basically agree. But I reserve the term "pump and dump scheme" for those who are actively marketing/hyping the security. This is a shorter-term, higher frequency operation than a classic pump and dump.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Election news might be front page news today and other news may take a back seat.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Parts are not stored painted.

...

Actually, they are. I just had the front fascia on my Aug '18 M3 replaced. The SC had a red one in stock. It looks fine.

 

[lklundin]

Today opricot.com shows a Max Pain of just 550$ for March 20 - an expiry date for options open for trading long ago. This maximum is way below the Max Pain of surrounding weeks (that deal in weekly contracts).

Can someone help me understand how these open contracts and their ongoing trading can possibly influence the TSLA SP until that date? Can we expect that trading will bring the March 20 Max Pain upwards and closer to that of the surrounding weeks, or can we expect Market Maker shenanigans attempting to bring the SP way down that week?

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[bhtooefr]

Well, the people who run the company would beg to differ with you:



Tesla plans to double service capacity by adding shifts, stocking more spare parts

I chose to believe Tesla's management on this. More colors definitely equal more stock around the world. And these are not small parts! Tesla is successful in a large part because they focus on things that really matter. As long as they can sell every car they can make they are not going to complicate it by offering different colors every three months (as suggested). It strains the supply chain and lengthens common fender-bender repairs.

I suspect that this could help even when color needs to be blended - have a prepainted part, and then blend the prepainted part into the remaining bodywork? Would at least reduce repair time...

 

[Earlian]

TSLA still up on Tradegate 3,9% 693 Eur ~ 771$

Indices looking all green for now.



If the us news is ruled by pre-election today, it might not be the repetition of yesterday.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So with Model Y early delivery and all the positive news coming out of Tesla in the near future what's the over/under on a 50% rise in stock price over the next month? Yeah, I know, $1200 is wishful thinking but that would REALLY make me happy.

Dan

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today opricot.com shows a Max Pain of just 550$ for March 20 - an expiry date for options open for trading long ago. This maximum is way below the Max Pain of surrounding weeks (that deal in weekly contracts).

Can someone help me understand how these open contracts and their ongoing trading can possibly influence the TSLA SP until that date? Can we expect that trading will bring the March 20 Max Pain upwards and closer to that of the surrounding weeks, or can we expect Market Maker shenanigans attempting to bring the SP way down that week?

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

If this is a long-standing setup for Options open-interest, Market Makers should have long since delta-hedged their exposure to these options. Thus, they would not be motivated by loss avoidance to spend significant funds to move the SP.

It's only when MMs have miscalculated, or Open Interest changes a large amount in a short period of time, that they are exposed to losses due to Options execution. It's in periods such as that that they will spend money to save money, by moving the SP.

Unfortunately, we never know their net exposuire, and we have only the group Open Interest (whereas all decisions are made by individual actors), and then even that has no time history preserved, only the currernt state. It's a weak dataset, one which you'd have to spend time and resources to collect and analyze, then for misleading info.

Play the long game, and you'll be fine. Not happy with +10% in this latest swing?

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

TSLA still up on Tradegate 3,9% 693 Eur ~ 771$

Indices looking all green for now.

View attachment 517815

If the us news is ruled by pre-election today, it might not be the repetition of yesterday.

I'll take these wild oscillations any time I love watching the strikes on the short legs of my call spreads steadily drift upwards. Only a third are left at the original strike ($1500), the rest are now scattered from $1550 to $1700 (except for a couple that haven't yet been sold back, but will whenever the price takes off again).

 

[vikings123]

Im hoping we see another steady day like Monday .

Monday action was so stable. I also noticed IV dropped to normal levels. Yesterday though the IV was off the charts. I wonder if the lack of volatility on Monday had something to do RH trading shutdown.

 

[Tslynk67]

My guess on key dates:

Elon gets creative on April fools day - 1st April
Production & Deliveries numbers - 3rd April
Announce batt day - 6th April
Batt day - 20th April (420 day)
Announce ER - 24th April
ER - 6th May
Moody and S&P upgrades - 22nd May

Hmmm, I've a way-OTFM call expiring 15th May, so that would suck big time... It would be a very, very late ER too compared with recent quarters.

Regards the politics in the US, without being political, I guess overall the DEMS are seen as beneficial for Tesla because they'll bring back stronger regulation and push renewables, EV's, etc. With regards to Joe versus Bernie, does anyone have an idea on their policy differences on all this? I think I've a good idea that Bernie's pushing the whole "Green New Deal" thing, but I've no idea for Joe.

I guess the markets are scared of any DEM getting in, but prefer Joe because he's less left-leaning?

What I did always find odd is that the markets seem to thrive on the total chaos from the last three years, I would have expected an adverse reaction. Is this just a result of regulation and oversight being removed so they can get away with more dodgy stuff?

I would personally be OK with the markets taking a hit if the US could sort themselves out with a more caring government, would only be short-term anyway.

 

[Tslynk67]

While I agree with the truly unique colors, such as purple, pink, and turquoise, more common uncommon colors such as "titanium" (also known as champagne, gold, moonstone, etc.), bright silver, ivory, etc are more common in the luxury market, of which the S and X is a part of. I don't see the Model 3 or Y gaining color choices, but the Model S and X are both being more and more representative of the upper middle class than their younger siblings. It would make sense to offer "premium" color choices of those vehicles, so to better align with their premium price tag, especially as we transition from "frantic, need-to-grow-to-survive" to "grow because we can".

Tesla has even previously offered green, brown, titanium, and bright silver, so it's not a pumpkin orange that very few would order.

Never understood why they dropped silver - it's the single most popular colour in Belgium and likely other EU countries. My P85 looked stunning in silver...

When I look at some of the nice colours I see on EU manufacturers, I always feel a bit sad that Tesla's are so incredibly boring. Renault are one of the best for paint - the cars are shite, bit the colours they have are really vibrant.

 

[KarenRei]

Never understood why they dropped silver - it's the single most popular colour in Belgium and likely other EU countries. My P85 looked stunning in silver...

When I look at some of the nice colours I see on EU manufacturers, I always feel a bit sad that Tesla's are so incredibly boring. Renault are one of the best for paint - the cars are shite, bit the colours they have are really vibrant.

Most manufacturers have several months of inventory on lots, and factories on the same continent as the cars are sold. If inventory of a given colour starts running low in a given area, it's no problem to make more. Tesla, however, has to try to estimate how many of each possible config will be bought in what market, 1-2 months in advance. It's a much harder inventory problem. Reducing the number of colours is extremely useful to Tesla in this regard.

Once Tesla has a factory on each continent, then and only then might I expect more colours. Even then, though, the lack of dealership-lot inventory will always make it a harder challenge for Tesla than for others.

 

[Favguy]

Actually, they are. I just had the front fascia on my Aug '18 M3 replaced. The SC had a red one in stock. It looks fine.

To be specific, plastic body parts are often available as spares painted, sheet metal parts, are almost always left in primer.

 

[Tslynk67]

Most manufacturers have several months of inventory on lots, and factories on the same continent as the cars are sold. If inventory of a given colour starts running low in a given area, it's no problem to make more. Tesla, however, has to try to estimate how many of each possible config will be bought in what market, 1-2 months in advance. It's a much harder inventory problem. Reducing the number of colours is extremely useful to Tesla in this regard.

Once Tesla has a factory on each continent, then and only then might I expect more colours. Even then, though, the lack of dealership-lot inventory will always make it a harder challenge for Tesla than for others.

Yes, I can see that. I think @RobStark's suggestion to bring in a special "Q1 Limited" colour isn't a bad idea at all though.